Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[OrangeCTWX]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Random thought this afternoon... but I think Long Island could be the jackpot here. 

Will be a torturous radar to watch if we can’t get that to come just a little more north and into CT.

[ineedsnow]

I think that western low will be the main player.. in the end I think east of the river gets crushed and a good storm to the NY border

[SouthCoastMA]

That's a good evolution..dumbell lows to start then consolidates to the south west low and stalls east of the Cape. 

[powderfreak]

Large area of eastern SNE with 1.5” or more QPF and 2.0”+ in SE Mass.  Thats a blizzard.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I started following this forum many years ago knowing very little about meteorology.

Here I am, feeling like I know less now.     That was such a weird run

[shawnmov]

When this all ends, we can name this the light switch blizzard.  On... Off... On... Off... On... Off

 

[CoastalWx]

Man if that can shake the low to the ENE that’s a huge WCB slamming into SNE.

[TalcottWx]

3k Nam is a nuke

[powderfreak]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Man if that can shake the low to the ENE that’s a huge WCB slamming into SNE.

That’s what seems the different from a huge snowstorm and historic levels. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Going to be over 2” qpf in se mass… should see some insane totals on kuchie 

[TalcottWx]

I dislike the evolution of this snowstorm. 

[ineedsnow]

if you look at the surface you can see what looks like it would have been a decaying band in the ctrv at hr 30  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Large area of eastern SNE with 1.5” or more QPF and 2.0”+ in SE Mass.  Thats a blizzard.

[powderfreak]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Going to be over 2” qpf in se mass… should see some insane totals on kuchie 

[Damage In Tolland]

Fantastic solution for the entire forum 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Random thought this afternoon... but I think Long Island could be the jackpot here. 

I've noticed that on the lot of the short term guidance, that massive QPF bomb has been creeping north slowly so that we're seeing it over LI....I'm wondering if that just ends up creeping NNE across the sound into SE CT.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

if you look at the surface you can see what looks like it would have been a decaying band in the ctrv at hr 30  

Yup

[dryslot]

Tblizz shocked by this run.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Probably a 2 footer here with that look 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Man if that can shake the low to the ENE that’s a huge WCB slamming into SNE.

it's so damn close to doing that on some guidance.

[George001]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Looks like a good middle ground between that crazy NAM run last night that gave NYC like 30 inches and the 12z Euro

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Fantastic solution for the entire forum 

No reason to change anything imo. All systems go. some will get fringed, some will receive just one dong out west, EOR will tickle two dongs, and even a few triple dongs get stuffed into EMA. 

[alex]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Fantastic solution for the entire forum 

PF and JSpin disagree. Myself Diane and Phin are half there

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Such a bizzare run.

 

Now I'm actually curious to see if we actually get the double low IRL.

[moneypitmike]

43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So do you believe River east is fine too? Asking for friends 

Depends.....if you're talking about the Thames, yes.

12 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

if that keeps trending earlier, it could maybe be a good thing. hard to say

It's got about 6 hours to keep trending. 

 

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Random thought this afternoon... but I think Long Island could be the jackpot here. 

Your fingers to God’s keyboard! 

I have no freaking clue what’s going to happen with this. You would think with the upper air lows where they are it would be a great outcome for the vast majority of us. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Not buying this solution either...

Continuity blows harder than the winds being modeled - 

At this point I'm resolute to rely on now cast.  Stay the present course on current snow and wind coverage, and adjust down(up) accordingly.

I realize television talent and back-office officials don't have that luxury when it comes to advising the public, but get creative with the language - some times ya gotta do your job.  Heh.

Something like, "I apologize that I cannot confirm the higher end of the snow fall potential at this time, but the potential is still there. Pleas check in regularly as we will be updating this to keep you informed, as the storm's impacts become more clear..."

sumpin' like ghat -

[DavisStraight]

12 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Random thought this afternoon... but I think Long Island could be the jackpot here. 

Yeah, the low jumps NE after dumping on LI

[ineedsnow]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man if that can shake the low to the ENE that’s a huge WCB slamming into SNE.

yup I think we do

[OceanStWx]

33 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

I should've been more explicit with that prompt. My bad!

That was a comment for the WRF modeling system,  but the "convective grey zone" is a problem for all modeling systems really. The Met Office acknowledges it too - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/grey-zone-project/index

It's definitely not my area of expertise, but you wonder as all these models drive down into this not quite convection allowing but not not convection allowing zone if that's not a large reason why cyclogenesis when you have a lot of latent heat release seems to be a little more unreliable.