Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Its running away with this....check your SLP map at 24 hours and it's right where I circled H5:

 

 

Right - I'm not sure that has to be correct, either ... the forcing was back SW and it seemed to deepen too far E 18 hr ( so very short term)

now cast it

[moneypitmike]

Just now, dan11295 said:

12-18" ORH east 16-20"  with spot 24" SE MA seems to be 12z EURO/GFS/NAM. Pedestrian NW of there. 

Might want to take a closer look.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Probably too far west like yesterday's runs. But too far east. Take the middle ground. 

The ensembles were waaaay east close in on MLK event, and they were on crack....but of course this time, they nail it...unbelievable. You can not make this up.

 

 

[MJO812]

Hopefully it's bad data in these 12z runs

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The ensembles were waaaay east close in on MLK event, and they were on crack....but of course this time, they nail it...unbelievable. You can not make this up.

 

 

We still have a few more runs to go ( well not really here )

[snowman21]

That's still 15+ for eastern areas. I'll take it if you guys don't want it.

[WeatherWilly]

Euro you sweet temptress............how can you be so cruel

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Allsnow said:

I just looked, this isn't as bad as people made it sound...certainly no blizzard for most, but...

[JC-CT]

need some of that magic airplane dropsonde juju juice

[TheSnowman]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Wait, what's That?  Thought the Euro didn't even initialize yet.....  

 

And that map is Horrid.  

[Spanks45]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Can WoR crew start worrying yet? 

yup.....that little voice inside that kept saying it was too good to be true. I guess we can let it all play out, but we have been here, done this before. I just hope we can keep a 4-8 inch storm potential here, without that slipping away as well

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Right - I'm not sure that has to be correct, either ... the forcing was back SW and it seemed to deepen too far E 18 hr ( so very short term)

now cast it

This isn't as dire as I thought....I never look until after the fact.

[Allsnow]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just looked, this isn't as bad as people made it sound...certainly no blizzard for most, but...

Would still be the biggest event of the winter so far for many. Take it and run 

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

every model except the out-to-lunch GFS has gone east today. GFS came west because it was so far east. It's not just the Euro.

People here toss almost every model it seems but when they all move together and look the same it usually means something. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Let’s all give it until 18z before we decide we’re getting a hall of shame rug pull. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Would still be the biggest event of the winter so far for many. Take it and run 

Trouble is, does trend continue...man, time for a HIGHLY confident final call lmao

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, TheSnowman said:

Wait, what's That?  Thought the Euro didn't even initialize yet.....  

 

And that map is Horrid.  

That's 10 to 1  18 to 30 

[Allsnow]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This isn't as dire as I thought....I never look until after the fact.

Do you have your maps yet? For euro 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, BostonWX said:

 

Kuchera and 10.1 , still looks very good for central and eastern areas

I know I know eastern areas still look nice but if this is the result. IF IF. That's a massive disappointment.

Boston going from 24 to 13 is still a nice storm but this may be a bit disappointment across the board.

[Great Snow 1717]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is worse than 2009-2010.

What an abomination of a season. No convection last week....fuc* this, onto draft prep for a season that will start in June

Look on the bright side, Franchy Codero can be had for cheap...

[DomNH]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This isn't as dire as I thought....I never look until after the fact.

Depends on perspective I guess. Blows chunks if you were looking for historic outside SEMA, but still a solid 12''+ ORH east.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Right - I'm not sure that has to be correct, either ... the forcing was back SW and it seemed to deepen too far E 18 hr ( so very short term)

now cast it

Yeah it's honestly going to be interesting....I think that feature is real, but the magnitude is what it is question. If you get the upper iar forcing to overcome it early enough (like some guidance shows), then you still have a historic crush job for most of SNE....but obviously the Euro decided not to go that route on this run....though I'd be careful for those who think that is not still a monster storm for eastern areas...the deformation band would prob go right through metrowest on that run and everyone would claim the models busted because they got 2 feet anyway....

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I will say, kuchie does still drop 24+ In eastern ma.

[WeatherWilly]

What are the chances the Euro changes it mind again later when it's basically nowcast territory. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, PhineasC said:

People here toss almost every model it seems but when they all move together and look the same it usually means something. 

yes. but it also means, like always, that there becomes a point when they are more sensitive to the same data inputs than they are the differences in how they process them

[WxWatcher007]

We stay the course.

Chips fall mode. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think EVERYONE has to start worrying now. 

If ORH is getting an inch plus LE, PYM is 2 1/2 inches, BOS almost, ie, where most people live, how is that a worry.  In my day living in NYC subforum and visiting SNE school breaks, except 1978, 6 inches was tremendous

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Do you have your maps yet? For euro 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, BostonWX said:

 

Kuchera and 10.1 , still looks very good for central and eastern areas

Yea there are some very strange people in here. Qpf queens and all. 

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Right - I'm not sure that has to be correct, either ... the forcing was back SW and it seemed to deepen too far E 18 hr ( so very short term)

now cast it

Honest question most models have that now any chance it could have been bad data put in?