Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

I live off Rt. 30, near Northeast Elementary School.

Ahh .. Lafayette Square area You’re like 2 minutes or less from the Tolland line . Up and in

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just a favor to ask...

Can we not refer to storms by their TWC fake names? (Juno, etc)

Jan 26-28 2015 KU  works

[Whineminster]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The airmass is not really cold ahead of it. 925 and surface temps out of southwest and mild. As the storm deepens, the cold then gets pulled down. The euro shows this nicely. The GFs does the same, but unfortunately taints a lot of SNE. 

Yup. Making it's own cold.

[Typhoon Tip]

I looked at the 925 mb thermal layout and it ranges from -2C along the S.Coast shore to -7 SE VT-S NH on average, at 120 hours.  With a 1028 to 1032 mb high pearled out N of Maine, and lowering sfc pressure approaching the S.Coast, that is plenty of BL resistance implied by those factors. 

I'm sure other's have different data sources, and or dissenting opinions, but I don't see that as a limitation ( as of right now of course!) my self.

This storm is not 'making it's own cold' good lord. 

I think we're making shit up as defensive posturing LOL... .hey man, whatever it takes.

[JC-CT]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Just a favor to ask...

Can we not refer to storms by their TWC fake names? (Juno, etc)

Jan 26-28 2015 KU  works

It's currently named Jimmy Garoppalo. Very subject to change.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Yup. Making it's own cold.

No, not making its own cold, it's advecting it south into it. 

[klw]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

It's currently named Jimmy Garoppalo. Very subject to change.

Just as long as it doesn't end up with the name Lucy ...

[dryslot]

55 minutes ago, HalloweenGale said:

What does this mean for Cape Cod at this point?

Probably ends up in the CNE region.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I looked at the 925 mb thermal layout and it ranges from -2C along the S.Coast shore to -7 SE VT-S NH on average, at 120 hours.  With a 1028 to 1032 mb high pearled out N of Maine, and lowering sfc pressure approaching the S.Coast, that is plenty of BL resistance implied by those factors. 

I'm sure other's have different data sources, and or dissenting opinions, but I don't see that as a limitation ( as of right now of course!) my self.

 

Look at Friday for example. It's in the 30s and fairly mild all things considered. It's not like we have highs in the teens and 20s prior to the storm arrival, with a big fat high north of New England. That's all I mean.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

this is all true. also why some of these deep ensemble members showing up haven't actually been that great region-wide. But there is something historic about a storm that strong that is cool in its own right.

For sure. And I get the love for them because of the wind potential but that just ends up screwing snow growth and ratios and essentially if you aren't under one of those bands...you're sucking pixie dust (or something just above that). 

This is where QPF huggers really need to keep a realistic perspective here. This is a situation where mesoscale and very high-resolution models get their pay because they will really do a good job at painting this picture. 

I just remember these type of storms being a pain b/c it is really impossible to portray the type of gradients that develop within forecast snow maps. one town can get like 20'' and a few towns away like 8'' lol. 

[SouthCoastMA]

I'm riding the blitzkrieg model until it surrenders to the allied forces (GFS, UK, EURO). 

Have a feeling this storm is going to make or break some people on this board. Those who haven't learned by now to temper expectations. 

[wxeyeNH]

9 minutes ago, tamarack said:

CAR recorded 957 in 2/2/76 and I think the OV bomb of Jan 78 got down to about 952.  What was 1938's deepest in New England?  (Or at LI landfall?)

Just checked  946mb Long Island

[UnitedWx]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Just a favor to ask...

Can we not refer to storms by their TWC fake names? (Juno, etc)

Jan 26-28 2015 KU  works

Guilty and ashamed of the fact that I did that! TW who?

[SouthCoastMA]

I mean if it's going to slam into LI or the Cape, let it at least be something historic, like the 940's, 950's

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I'm riding the blitzkrieg model until it surrenders to the allied forces (GFS, UK, EURO). 

Have a feeling this storm is going to make or break some people on this board. Those who haven't learned by now to temper expectations. 

I mean it's hard to complain when the region has gotten multiple KU storms over the past couple decades

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Just a favor to ask...

Can we not refer to storms by their TWC fake names? (Juno, etc)

Jan 26-28 2015 KU  works

Are you going to spank us with a ruler over your classroom's desk if we do?

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

For sure. And I get the love for them because of the wind potential but that just ends up screwing snow growth and ratios and essentially if you aren't under one of those bands...you're sucking pixie dust (or something just above that). 

This is where QPF huggers really need to keep a realistic perspective here. This is a situation where mesoscale and very high-resolution models get their pay because they will really do a good job at painting this picture. 

I just remember these type of storms being a pain b/c it is really impossible to portray the type of gradients that develop within forecast snow maps. one town can get like 20'' and a few towns away like 8'' lol. 

if the rapid deepening happens up here at our latitude, it should be fine. but yeah, nobody wants a storm that is already occluded before it gets here

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I mean it's hard to complain when the region has gotten multiple KU storms over the past couple decades

it's not hard at all

[ma blizzard]

59 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I have a couple of questions.  Just went through all the posts to see if someone already asked.

What is the deepest cyclone in mb at the latitude of the Cape/Boston?  Would the Euro  946mb be a record?  Sure would seem like it.

Blizzard of 78 was 984mb (I think) but a stronger high out west.  What has been the steepest pressure gradient over New England for a winter storm?

I believe this is the record low pressure for lower 48 / non-hurricane 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Are you going to spank us with a ruler over your classroom's desk if we do?

you're daring him to aren't you?  You naughty boy....

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Are you going to spank us with a ruler over your classroom's desk if we do?

Detention for you!!!

[weatherwiz]

Just now, JC-CT said:

if the rapid deepening happens up here at our latitude, it should be fine. but yeah, nobody wants a storm that is already occluded before it gets here

Bingo...that's exactly what we would want...rapid deepening to occur at our latitude. This would also limit any potential for warmer air streaming into the region in the event of a coastal hugger. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

you're daring him to aren't you?  You naughty boy....

Ha. Brings back memories of catholic elementary school. Nuns with rulers...scary. 

[Tatamy]

20 minutes ago, tamarack said:

CAR recorded 957 in 2/2/76 and I think the OV bomb of Jan 78 got down to about 952.  What was 1938's deepest in New England?  (Or at LI landfall?)

2/2/76 reached down to 970 mb at my location at the time on the north shore of LI.

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ha. Brings back memories of catholic elementary school. Nuns with rulers...scary. 

My second grade nun had a paddle and she loved to use it.

[radarman]

I like how the baroclinic zone sets up near the coast out ahead of the system behind the departing HP to the east and the incoming N stream s/w. Bodes well for heavy precip... on top of that associated with the rapid deepening of course.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

I like how the baroclinic zone sets up near the coast out ahead of the system behind the departing HP to the east and the incoming N stream s/w. Bodes well for heavy precip... on top of that associated with the rapid deepening of course.

Yeah unlike the last storm that tracked through BGM, the sfc front gets pretty well established early on over the coast or just SE of the coast depending on the solution.

[dryslot]

Pwat values should be high with this too with its origin.

[JC-CT]

Apologize if posted already. Says nothing except they agree it's not going over buffalo.

 

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Pwat values should be high with this too with its origin.

Atmospheric river talk from GYX soon?