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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Back here on page 22 - much of this will be redundant so will keep it to bullet points

-- very early phase of coalescing a consensus appears to be taking place.. 

-- ens means held serve.  Operational runs moving toward them.. and in some cases ( 06z GFS) pressed W of the envelop.  No worries... This situation has a physical limitation where the cyclone can't go W of the trough axis - no Utica route for this one.

-- it's still early enough that this is "early consensus" - impetus being...yes it may yet change. 

-- quick note: GGEM's cluster *so far* wins the early honing prize. However, the whole scope of this has really been a fuzzy emergence by all models, so I would not be inclined to credit the Canadian the whole way.

-- GGEM operational 00z starts the dreaded inland hint, as did the 06 GFS, no worries for me.  Neither will ultimately end up over Utica like the last event, because the total lower cyclonic curvature cannot track W the trough axis for open waves in the process of closing a central axis near the eastern tip of L.I. ( visual super blend) These recent solutions are essentially pressed ( or nearly so) against that physical boundary.  I think if anything...we end up wobbling a track between these ( now) slightly west outliers, and the BM, with many cycles to go.  

 -- As to the Euro, that solution with 946 mb, could end up west, as a sudden correction solution like this could be a trend begin.  Nevertheless, that is so massive and so powerful, with so many deep (ridiculous) height falls moving from the Del Marva over SNE, that focusing on QPF would be a big big mistake in my opinion.  That is a danger storm for potentially pairing wind damage over eastern zones... But hey, I'm human - couldn't help throwing a detail bone LOL

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tim123

tim123

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Back here on page 22 - much of this will be redundant so will keep it to bullet points

-- very early phase of coalescing a consensus appears to be taking place.. 

-- ens means held serve.  Operational runs moving toward them.. and in some cases ( 06z GFS) pressed W of the envelop.  No worries... This situation has a physical limitation where the cyclone can't go W of the trough axis - no Utica route for this one.

-- it's still early enough that this is "early consensus" - impetus being...yes it may yet change. 

-- quick note: GGEM's cluster *so far* wins the early honing prize. However, the whole scope of this has really been a fuzzy emergence by all models, so I would not be inclined to credit the Canadian the whole way.

-- GGEM operational 00z starts the dreaded inland hint, as did the 06 GFS, no worries for me.  Neither will ultimately end up over Utica like the last event, because the total lower cyclonic curvature cannot track W the trough axis for open waves in the process of closing a central axis near the eastern tip of L.I. ( visual super blend) These recent solutions are essentially pressed ( or nearly so) against that physical boundary.  I think if anything...we end up wobbling a track between these ( now) slightly west outliers, and the BM, with many cycles to go.  

 -- As to the Euro, that solution with 946 mb, could end up west, as a sudden correction solution like this could be a trend begin.  Nevertheless, that is so massive and so powerful, with so many deep (ridiculous) height falls moving from the Del Marva over SNE, that focusing on QPF would be a big big mistake in my opinion.  That is a danger storm for potentially pairing wind damage over eastern zones... But hey, I'm human - couldn't help throwing a detail bone LOL

Maybe not Utica but albany certainly.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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9 hours ago, PhineasC said:

CMC is a 2 foot crusher here. Destroys PF. 40 spot on the weenie map.

there's a possibility this storm could evolve into a dangerous event from DCA to your neck of the woods... The whole way. I don't know if hits on x-y-z KU diddles exactly, but the original look/notion of multi-regional at minimum, mediam and quite possibly major impact from the interior lower M/A all the way up the EC, re-enters the discussion from what I see off the overnight model mass.

The 00z and 06z GEFs opened up the cyclonic arc of the W and SW aspects of the run to run consecutive trend to expand the low pressure circumvallate, is telling/ hinting that there is a tendency to slow this m'fer down. 

It's prelim? not forecasting -

That all said, Miller A origin then capture by the N/stream ... is a particularly extreme scenario, which by virtue of origin and hauling excessive theta-e would likely max on QPF layouts...

Just where things set now... and stuff to maybe look for in future guidance.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Past results don’t lead to future outcomes but the ptsd it leaves behind is more difficult to overcome for some.

Practically every winter has a cutter. To have PTSD over a common occurrence is silly. This 1980s winter stuff is also silly. I mean let's not forget  Dec 81 Feb 1983 and April 1987

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have never seen an ensemble mean that intense....this may rival my drift records from March 14, 1993....just violating the atmosphere in every way imaginable. Drifts several feet high and Ginxy and the dogs just floating past ice bergs in area sounds from the tides....clinging to terds like life buoys.

 

Just now on page 30 but can assume the forwarding are gawk pages at this point ...

Ways to go?  yup - we know this...just wanna get that out there.

Still, I keep coming back to the notion that big atmospheric events have an interesting way of showing up rather early... and fighting through adversity and chaos, they keep reappearing... Finally, all tech concedes and gosh, the thematic arc of this particular event really fits that for me. 

It could very well be doubting in disbelief along a journey toward a big dawg, trophy caser.  

Already, it would have to say looking at this myself,  if 1/3 of those EPS, and 1/2 of the GEF members ( in other words, the upper tier impactors) were frappe, it would poor a glass of no joke dangerous bomb shake. 

I don't know if that is going to happen - and wouldn't dream to suggest so at D5 ( haha...holy shit)  But it kinda sorta goes with that idea about system persistence above?  And no, this is no mere kielbasa George01ian dystopic hot take. That's the implied by that mean.  I don't know what the region would do with 20 -30" of snow driven along by 55 mph wind gusts as far inland and the ORH Hills...with 70 mph routine gust over roofs and through the tree canopies of coastal counties, but good luck

Can't be hugely confident of a ceiling bomb at this range - so we're just talking here. 

Realistically, we prooobably shave 20 or 30% and reality just makes it solid success... 

I'm also thinking that the QPF is indeed creeping back SW down the EC like we mentioned may take place, later last night...As well as some impacts. The 06z GFS and the 00z GGEM ...while not necessarily verbatim buy-in solutions, they do erupt leaf snows down in the interior and of the SE and have moderate for DCA-PHL... 

wow huh

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HalloweenGale

HalloweenGale

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Just now on page 30 but can assume the forwarding are gawk pages at this point ...

Ways to go?  yup - we know this...just wanna get that out there.

Still, I keep coming back to the notion that big atmospheric events have an interesting way of showing up rather early... and fighting through adversity and chaos, they keep reappearing... Finally, all tech concedes and gosh, the thematic arc of this particular event really fits that for me. 

It could very well be doubting in disbelief along a journey toward a big dawg, trophy caser.  

Already, it would have to say looking at this myself,  if 1/3 of those EPS, and 1/2 of the GEF members ( in other words, the upper tier impactors) were frappe, it would poor a glass of joke dangerous bomb shake. 

I don't know if that is going to happen - and would dream to suggest so at D5 ( haha...holy shit)  But it kinda sorta goes with that idea about system persistence above?  And no, this is no mere kielbasa George01ian dystopic hot take. That's the implied by that mean.  I don't know what the region would do with 20 -30" of snow driven along by 55 mph wind gusts as far inland and the ORH Hills...with 70 mph routine gust over roofs and through the tree canopies of coastal counties, but good luck

Can rest or be hugely confident of a ceiling bomb at this range - so we're just talking here. 

Obviously, we prooobably shame 20 or 30% and reality just makes it solid success... 

I'm also thinking that the QPF is indeed creeping back SW down the EC like we mentioned may take place, later last night...As well as some impacts. The 06z GFS and the 00z GGEM ...while not necessarily verbatim buy-in solutions, they do erupt leaf snows down in the interior and of the SE and have moderate for DCA-PHL... 

wow huh

What does this mean for Cape Cod at this point?

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WxFreak11

WxFreak11

Posted
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It’s funny that people complain when there’s nothing to track and then when there is something to track people find reasons to complain yet again i.e. it’s going to cut inland, it’s too offshore etc etc. What I’ve found out after 40+ years of tracking potential storms, the most fun is in the actual tracking and not necessarily in the results we get or don’t get. Don’t get me wrong..I love the blockbuster storm results but tracking and discussing the potential results is the most rewarding part of being a weather freak. And so we track..

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Just now, WxFreak11 said:

It’s funny that people complain when there’s nothing to track and then when there is something to track people find reasons to complain yet again i.e. it’s going to cut inland, it’s too offshore etc etc. What I’ve found out after 40+ years of tracking potential storms, the most fun is in the actual tracking and not necessarily in the results we get or don’t get. Don’t get me wrong..I love the blockbuster storm results but tracking and discussing the potential results is the most rewarding part of people a weather freak. And so we track..

Tracking is cool but nothing at all compares to being in it and the results. Playing in it is far more physically satisfying and rewarding.  Tracking is a mental exercise that is awesome.

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UnitedWx

UnitedWx

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Practically every winter has a cutter. To have PTSD over a common occurrence is silly. This 1980s winter stuff is also silly. I mean let's not forget  Dec 81 Feb 1983 and April 1987

Agreed..except the 80s stuff. Yeah there were a few nice ones in there but the decade as a whole into the first couple of the 90s was crap. Having said that anyone who thinks it has any bearing on today, well

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tiger_deF

tiger_deF

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People are paranoid because this is the kind of synoptic setup that has the potential to truly produce a historic beast... provided that all the factors (northern stream, southern stream, positioning of disturbances, high pressure interactions) line up just right. With models setting expectations this high this early, while the end result could end up being exactly what is modeled now, there will certainly be some movement with us being 5 days out. Getting 6 inches of snow as a max out of this system would leave the board majorly disappointed, while getting 6 inches out of a system that comes out of nowhere would be considered exciting.

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UnitedWx

UnitedWx

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Just now, tiger_deF said:

People are paranoid because this is the kind of synoptic setup that has the potential to truly produce a historic beast... provided that all the factors (northern stream, southern stream, positioning of disturbances, high pressure interactions) line up just right. With models setting expectations this high this early, while the end result could end up being exactly what is modeled now, there will certainly be some movement with us being 5 days out. Getting 6 inches of snow as a max out of this system would leave the board majorly disappointed, while getting 6 inches out of a system that comes out of nowhere would be considered exciting.

That's because some get way to wrapped up in a specific outcome, instead of enjoying the weather...all of it.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Agreed..except the 80s stuff. Yeah there were a few nice ones in there but the decade as a whole into the first couple of the 90s was crap. Having said that anyone who thinks it has any bearing on today, well

Talking individual storms not seasons. Big ones can occur. 

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  • Typhoon Tip changed the title to Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...
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