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Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow


stormtracker
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5 minutes ago, VABILLUPS1 said:

This is a total wow. I have never seen a system fall apart this fast and this close to the event. Whoever is programming these models needs to study this one. My goodness.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I wish it was that black and white. Overall, on the balance, gfs is pretty good with NS driven patterns. However, gfs has been upgraded pretty recently and it takes a while to figure out strengths and weaknesses. I've thought the new gfs was pretty good when it was the FV3 or whatever it was called. Ran too cold but did well in mid range. 

The atmosphere is nearly infinitely complex when it comes to turning math into a simulation. No one model is ever even close to being "the one". That's where the fun of this hobby comes from. In the midrange, all models are wrong. How and what is wrong is up to the interpreter. 

Thanks. I appreciate your valuable insight.  I’ve been tracking snow for as long as I can remember, but this forum has been invaluable in trying to understand how it all works. 

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6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Incredible turn of events! What in the world did the models miss! 

 

They didn't really miss anything. Had a hard time resolving multiple shortwave in fast flow out in time just like they always do. This stuff cuts both ways. Sometimes storms go poof and other times they go pop. 

Whenever we are in a busy NS pattern, you simply can't trust or feel confident in anything beyond 72 hours. Models did an excellent job honing in. Just wasn't the result most hoped for 

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3 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Thanks. I appreciate your valuable insight.  I’ve been tracking snow for as long as I can remember, but this forum has been invaluable in trying to understand how it all works. 

No problem at all. Always keep in mind, no matter what any model shows IRT a storm, if the run is showing something that rarely if ever happens in your yard, go with your climo. This was my mental breakthrough some years back. Topography, geography, and latitude are powerful drivers in our area. That's why storms often break the same way over and over in your yard. Don't expect a different outcome to come frequently or easy

 

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

They didn't really miss anything. Had a hard time resolving multiple shortwave in fast flow out in time just like they always do. This stuff cuts both ways. Sometimes storms go poof and other times they go pop. 

Whenever we are in a busy NS pattern, you simply can't trust or feel confident in anything beyond 72 hours. Models did an excellent job honing in. Just wasn't the result most hoped for 

Chill, PSU, Mill, Yoda….thanks and if I forgot some red taggers….thank you. One is never too old to learn. Looking forward to more good times here. Remember all you youngns, don’t run and get one, but walk and get ‘‘em all.

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47 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Panic room would be making exponential profits this week. I feel bad that they closed it for renovations. @WxWatcher007

I'm pretty sure @WxWatcher007 is doing quite well in retirement, still living off the interest he made at the old Panic Room casinos and bars!  I hear Ji always tipped well, too.

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5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I wish it was that black and white. Overall, on the balance, gfs is pretty good with NS driven patterns. However, gfs has been upgraded pretty recently and it takes a while to figure out strengths and weaknesses. I've thought the new gfs was pretty good when it was the FV3 or whatever it was called. Ran too cold but did well in mid range. 

The atmosphere is nearly infinitely complex when it comes to turning math into a simulation. No one model is ever even close to being "the one". That's where the fun of this hobby comes from. In the midrange, all models are wrong. How and what is wrong is up to the interpreter. 

Well said. Clearly the GFS OP has been taking the GFS ensembles and the Euro OP/Ensembles to the wood shed this winter.

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5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Panic room would be making exponential profits this week. I feel bad that they closed it for renovations. @WxWatcher007

 

5 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I'm pretty sure @WxWatcher007 is doing quite well in retirement, still living off the interest he made at the old Panic Room casinos and bars!  I hear Ji always tipped well, too.

Retired. Y’all on y’all own.

topsail-island-beach-pirate-betsy-a-cutl

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  • WxUSAF changed the title to Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow
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