November Discussion

[HoarfrostHubb]

2014-2015 

[OceanStWx]

21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

2014-2015 

I'm still waiting for my 70-71 at PWM (141.5"). 

[Damage In Tolland]

Nothing lasts forever… even warm Mowvember rain 

[klw]

1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Probably a half decent bet....what will be higher during meteorological winter: the highest observed dew point or inches of snow received?

We have averaged 100" of snow in our 5 winters at the current house.  If I ever hit 100 for a dew point we all have huge problems.

[dryslot]

50 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm still waiting for my 70-71 at PWM (141.5"). 

That one too, I'm still waiting for 1961-62 to appear here.

Record Snowfall Season-1. 1961-62- 164.30"
Record Snowfall Season-2. 1970-71- 144.90"
Record Snowfall Season-3. 2007-08- 137.80"
Record Snowfall Season-4. 1951-52- 128.20"
Record Snowfall Season-5. 2016-17- 121.20"

[tamarack]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

49 but age is just a number 

As our O-line coach in HS would say when a pulling guard went left instead of right, "You only missed by one!"

That dew vs. snow equation might've been hit last winter, the only time it's even been close:  52.5" for the snow season with a rainy max of 54 on 12/25/20, might be close.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Supernovice said:

@Typhoon Tip why can't I pm you?

ah, ...I don't know? 

Oh maybe ... a long while ago there was an upgrade of the software - it's a Brian / 'Stormtracker' thing ... Anyway, I and few others started getting text/email notification bombs. They were looking into it ...  I dunno - just spit ballin' but maybe they just turned off PMs for awhile.   

Other than that - no idea

[dryslot]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ah, ...I don't know? 

Oh maybe ... a long while ago there was an upgrade of the software - it's a Brian / 'Stormtracker' thing ... Anyway, I and few others started getting text/email notification bombs. They were looking into it ...  I dunno - just spit ballin' but maybe they just turned off PMs for awhile.   

Other than that - no idea

He should be able too, I just checked and i could.

[kdxken]

Perfect day for outdoor work. Let's keep it going.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Even that is suspicious-not sure-Will?

ORH 1991-2020 averages:

Oct: 1.1"

Nov: 1.9"

Dec: 14.9"

Jan: 18.2"

Feb: 21.1"

Mar: 13.7"

Apr: 1.9"

Total: 72.8"

DJF: 54.2"

 

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH 1991-2020 averages:

Oct: 1.1"

Nov: 1.9"

Dec: 14.9"

Jan: 18.2"

Feb: 21.1"

Mar: 13.7"

Apr: 1.9"

Total: 72.8"

DJF: 54.2"

 

Thanks Will!  I stand corrected (largely).

 

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Thanks Will!  I stand corrected (largely).

 

March really throws it off...but most of us in New England already know that March is a big part of our snow climo. Those 1991-2020 April numbers almost certainly too low too since they aren't including April 1996 and 1997 (both over 20") as those were part of the ASOS blackout years.

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, dryslot said:

He should be able too, I just checked and i could.

wait, did you actually send a test message ?

I didn't receive one, just sayn'

[Damage In Tolland]

50 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ah, ...I don't know? 

Oh maybe ... a long while ago there was an upgrade of the software - it's a Brian / 'Stormtracker' thing ... Anyway, I and few others started getting text/email notification bombs. They were looking into it ...  I dunno - just spit ballin' but maybe they just turned off PMs for awhile.   

Other than that - no idea

Probably your inbox is full

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Probably your inbox is full

Ah good call -

Yeah I don't actually check in with that inbox too frequently ... scratch that.  Ever.  I mean, nothing against it. 

Anyway, the top of the interface says, "Used 106% messenger storage"  - just a hunch, but that particular message and the the solid block bar with no remaining space might just be a clue there, huh -

By the way, ... ooph, when I was just cursory going down the list just now there are several colloquy from James Nichols regarding writing - I was taking it off line and giving him a hand with aspects...etc.  Not sure if those advises helped him or not, but anyway... that's weird - I had forgotten those were there.  f

[dryslot]

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wait, did you actually send a test message ?

I didn't receive one, just sayn'

Just did now, You should have it.

[Ginx snewx]

Nice view from the SR golf course cam

[DavisStraight]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice view from the SR golf course cam

Still a lot of color.

[Typhoon Tip]

all fixed - sorry if anyone tried to pm/txt ...

[powderfreak]

27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice view from the SR golf course cam

Seasons in seasons over here.  Upslope squall season is here.

Snow paste level is just above the base area.  Feel pretty confident in the heart of that we achieved true SN+ 1/4 mile briefly.  Dropped an inch in about 15 minutes where cold enough to stick.

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

2014-2015 

Hubbardston, MA. 111.75" of meh seasonal total. 2014-2015

[STILL N OF PIKE]

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Seasons in seasons over here.  Upslope squall season is here.

Snow paste level is just above the base area.  Feel pretty confident in the heart of that we achieved true SN+ 1/4 mile briefly.  Dropped an inch in about 15 minutes where cold enough to stick.

Jelly 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Happy Birthday man. Don’t black out.

Wish I saw this advice Saturday night.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Wish I saw this advice Saturday night.

Drinking and especially over drinking is so bad for you. In moderation and socially, cool, but I cringe at the heavy drinkers… don’t be one of them.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Drinking and especially over drinking is so bad for you. In moderation and socially, cool, but I cringe at the heavy drinkers… don’t be one of them.

I never drink, honestly hardly ever. I overdid it big time Saturday night though. No Beuno

[ORH_wxman]

Can see the signs of change near the end of the EPS for later in the month, we'll have to see how this tracks....whether it starts amplifying or getting pushed back some. Often, a pattern change can be rushed a bit by guidance so we'll see.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Can see the signs of change near the end of the EPS for later in the month, we'll have to see how this tracks....whether it starts amplifying or getting pushed back some. Often, a pattern change can be rushed a bit by guidance so we'll see.

 

 

GEFs not opposed to the notion ~  Nov 15/17 breakthrough.   Though it appears to be more in the emergence phase/showing up in that cluster ...  Usually when this happens, the signal matures, or turns out faux - but having cross- source support is obviously not a bad omen either.

The operational GFS is really doing it's typical grind act on the warm up, too ...tending to pancake it S of 40 N and aiming Pac waves like torpedoes along NP - southeast Canadian exit, which tends to cut boundaries south... But its main change is clearly nearing the end of the extended.  Long haul 

[George001]

Based on what I have seen on the models, everything is going according to plan and I see no reason to panic about my 70-85 inch forecast for in the Boston area this winter. I do however believe that the pattern change will be delayed, the polar vortex is expected to deepen and consolidate over the North Pole. The European guidance has the strength of the polar vortex well above normal into the 3rd week of November, rapidly weakening in the last week. There would likely be a lag too, so I would think the pattern change is mid to late December. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm still waiting for my 70-71 at PWM (141.5"). 

Decent analog this year, and with a more strongly coupled ENSO and atmosphere, you should do much better.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GEFs not opposed to the notion ~  Nov 15/17 breakthrough.   Though it appears to be more in the emergence phase/showing up in that cluster ...  Usually when this happens, the signal matures, or turns out faux - but having cross- source support is obviously not a bad omen either.

The operational GFS is really doing it's typical grind act on the warm up, too ...tending to pancake it S of 40 N and aiming Pac waves like torpedoes along NP - southeast Canadian exit, which tends to cut boundaries south... But its main change is clearly nearing the end of the extended.  Long haul 

It's a matter of when, not if. It's not going to remain mild far into December...you can bank that. Second half of Novie should get it done.