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November Discussion


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Figured I'd take the opportunity to start this, while many are preoccupied with the next underachieving wind event.

This will be the transition month, as the Pacific jet relaxes. We should begin to see a cold reservoir couple with the blocking that has been rendered useless throughout October. I would say shot of some snowfall for many is better than climo.

See ya 11/20.

image.png.39ef2de8bf786eacdb73b96159a2ed0c.png

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November starts seasonably cool, but then perhaps a moderating period before another cold pattern sets in? Weeklies/ensembles show this pretty good today. You can see the cold delivery in the first week of the month but then it moderates into a milder pattern by late in the ensemble run:

 

Oct25_12zEPS216.png.06d83bd49e2fcc40ec0d5b7e826b6e2f.png

 

 

Oct25_12zEPS336.png.c3c868b547c1c44ebce1c7baaef91aa4.png

 

It's out in clown range, but hope the end of the weeklies are correct for late Nov/early Dec....that pattern would likely produce a lot of cold and snow threats.

 

OCt25_weeklies5.thumb.png.7c48197e0b088dde09b526dafca09e2e.png

 

OCt25_weeklies6.thumb.png.8d0e316a52195c797cad1521572196d3.png

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Yeah this is about the the very best one could ever ask out of a Novie 6 

image.thumb.png.883eaa9d91ea9be61e4659cf732672ea.png

Not sure how and what will manifest within, but that first 10 days of November has been signaled for quite some time as a period of colder temperatures …However so anomalous to be determined. That isn’t the first run above that suggested something similar might emerge. Got some Telecon support

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11 hours ago, 78Blizzard said:

Euro says no.

Who cares what euro says honestly 

GFS has been very consistent that the period around the 5’th will have a trough over NE and that their will be A seasonably cold Airmass . That simply means we will have a chance at our first winter threat , probably Interior elevations of CNE but also Berks , N Orh in game . 

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Who cares what euro says honestly 

GFS has been very consistent that the period around the 5’th will have a trough over NE and that their will be A seasonably cold Airmass . That simply means we will have a chance at our first winter threat , probably Interior elevations of CNE but also Berks , N Orh in game . 

It will be hard take the euro seriously 

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12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Another close call today on the 12z GFS run for the 4-5th next week, I think the NW areas of NNE would be in play for snow, Upper level temps look like the would support snow in those areas.

I'm more interested in the system behind it...11/6ish. The 11/4 system is prob not going to be cold enough outside the higher elevations of NNE.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm more interested in the system behind it...11/6ish. The 11/4 system is prob not going to be cold enough outside the higher elevations of NNE.

The higher elevations are in play for the first one "if" the GFS is correct, That next one you mentioned looks like its has more cold air in place to work with too.

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21 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The higher elevations are in play for the first one "if" the GFS is correct, That next one you mentioned looks like its has more cold air in place to work with too.

Yeah and this could change a lot still....the models almost certainly haven't figured out the orientation of the large ULL and embedded shortwaves yet...so even the first one could end up colder too (or warmer).

But I do think there is likely to be a legit winter threat out of that whole trough/ULL somewhere on this forum between 11/3 and 11/7. Then it looks like we moderate for a while mid-month (which has been showing up on ensembles for a while now)....and then perhaps go colder again late month if the weeklies are correct....both the CFS and the Euro weeklies show a N PAC change by late month which produces much colder pattern.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and this could change a lot still....the models almost certainly haven't figured out the orientation of the large ULL and embedded shortwaves yet...so even the first one could end up colder too (or warmer).

But I do think there is likely to be a legit winter threat out of that whole trough/ULL somewhere on this forum between 11/3 and 11/7. Then it looks like we moderate for a while mid-month (which has been showing up on ensembles for a while now)....and then perhaps go colder again late month if the weeklies are correct....both the CFS and the Euro weeklies show a N PAC change by late month which produces much colder pattern.

Some of these runs are cutting it to our west so the trough placement is definitely up in the air, Something to watch anyways now that the boring HHH has ended and we look to be seeing a more active pattern going forward, Lets hope the weeklies have a clue late month, It would be good to start Dec of with some snow, Always a better sign for winter when its starts early.

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