tdp146 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 On 9/18/2021 at 4:07 AM, Will - Rutgers said: did anyone else notice that the fireflies quit early this year? i seem to remember a few years back they were swarming well into October due to warm moist weather. i might've thought they'd do the same this year if you told me the weather ahead of time, but i haven't seen them in several weeks, well back into mid-August. I was thinking about this old thread the other day too. I have noticed much less of a lightning bug season this year around here as well. I wonder if it is just more a natural ebb and flow in the population and less about the weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Easterly flow https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 The 12z NAM joins the slower models with cutoff and cold front later in the week as the WAR builds to record levels for late September over Newfoundland on Tuesday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 On 9/19/2021 at 10:37 AM, bluewave said: We’ll see if the JMA is correct about that pattern locking in for October. So we'll go back to warm weather in early October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 39 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 12z NAM joins the slower models with cutoff and cold front later in the week as the WAR builds to record levels for late September over Newfoundland on Tuesday. what happened to the WAR keeping rain away and giving us warm and sunny weather like it does in the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 5 hours ago, ForestHillWx said: 53 currently, refreshing morning. dewpoint is higher then it was in the city yesterday.. does not feel refreshing to me,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: what happened to the WAR keeping rain away and giving us warm and sunny weather like it does in the summer it is outside of a front passage that may not even get here til Friday at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: it is outside of a front passage that may not even get here til Friday at this point edit-new euro is so slow it rains Saturday now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: edit-new euro is so slow it rains Saturday now While the Euro does have a bit of a slow bias versus the GFS being to progressive at times this does increase the likelihood of heavy rain IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 back the front up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 the nam is useless until close in because a critical piece of the blocking pattern is outside its domain. it's going to be too fast with the front 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 5 hours ago, nycwinter said: dewpoint is higher then it was in the city yesterday.. does not feel refreshing to me,, I live 45 miles west of the city; my ID is deceiving. I lived on Forest Hill road growing up. Maybe I should update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Tomorrow will be another partly sunny and pleasant day. Temperatures will again rise well into the 70s in much of the region. The potential exists for a moderate to perhaps significant rainfall during the middle or latter part of the week. A widespread 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible. The timing still remains somewhat uncertain. The MJO has recently been locked in Phase 3 at a high amplitude, frequently in excess of 1.500. Only 2006 and 2009 saw the MJO in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 2 or more days during September 10-20. Both years saw September end with a cold shot that continued into the first days of October. Both days saw Central Park's temperature fall to 49° on September 30. October wound up wetter than normal with 7.07" rainfall in 2006 and 5.58" of rainfall in 2009. Normal rainfall (1991-2020) is 4.38". Despite the guidance of a few days ago and a likely cold shot to end the month, 2021 is still on course to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Considering that the close of September is still more than 10 days out, the guidance can still reverse. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop. The SOI was +8.14 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.118 today. On September 18 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.466 (RMM). The September 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.735 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.3° (1.1° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 The 00Z GFS still seems to be an outlier with the timing of the rainfall event. Going for a Thursday event while other models have pushed it back to overnight into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 33 minutes ago, Tekken_Guy said: The 00Z GFS still seems to be an outlier with the timing of the rainfall event. Going for a Thursday event while other models have pushed it back to overnight into Friday. The GFS is still a bit to progressive IMO although it has slowed from earlier runs. I also expect the models to come in a bit wetter as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 3 hours ago, Rtd208 said: The GFS is still a bit to progressive IMO although it has slowed from earlier runs. I also expect the models to come in a bit wetter as we get closer. It would absolutely suck if the rain extended into Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 70degs.(63/77), or +5. Month to date is 72.0[+1.0]. Should be 70.6[+1.0] by the 29th.(asjusted). Today: 72-75, p. cloudy, e. wind. 1" to 2" during Thurs/Fri. period. EURO goes ballistic with the ULL at the end of the month and gives us 6"!!!. GFS is a pimple. lol Reached 77* briefly, here yesterday. 66*(77%RH) here at 6am. 69* at 9am. 77* by 3pm. 79* at 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and pleasant. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 74° Newark: 77° Philadelphia: 79° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 74.3°; 15-Year: 75.4° Newark: 30-Year: 75.9°; 15-Year: 77.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 77.1°; 15-Year: 78.1° A moderate to perhaps significant rainfall is possible during the middle or latter part of the week. A general 0.50”-1.50” rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 21, 2021 Author Share Posted September 21, 2021 Will look early Wed, at a possible SVR thread for Thursday. Usually need a secondary low on the front thru PA, s NYS. If that does not occur, QPF and associated SVR would probably be less than modeled. Have another great late summer day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Another crisp morning here, in the 50s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 67 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 The next big WAR amplification is in early October with the potential for a hurricane to be somewhere underneath. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The next big WAR amplification is in early October with the potential for a hurricane to be somewhere underneath. This is the kind of situation that is possible under some of the fairly ominous monthly 500 mb forecasts for October (and weekly forecasts going into October). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: The next big WAR amplification is in early October with the potential for a hurricane to be somewhere underneath. 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: This is the kind of situation that is possible under some of the fairly ominous monthly 500 mb forecasts for October (and weekly forecasts going into October). Fun tracking times ahead for sure. E coast may need to watch 98L/Sam down the road with that upper air map, should it come to fruition. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmo09001 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The Euro and UKMET continue the heavy rains into Saturday since they have a stronger WAR than the CMC and GFS. I don't have access to the UKMET surface maps, but the Euro's appeared weaker at the surface over the last few runs. The 00z basically gets the rain through the metro around late morning on Friday. I'm just a casual lurker who mostly follows winter storms, so definitely outside my comfort zone. That said, curious what signals you see that would favor rain continuing into Saturday. I have a selfish reason for needing this rain to get out of here as soon as possible, so I am also biased and rooting hard for at least a model blend of the GFS/EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 1 hour ago, uofmiami said: Fun tracking times ahead for sure. E coast may need to watch 98L/Sam down the road with that upper air map, should it come to fruition. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 36 years ago, Hurricane Gloria hit Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: 36 years ago, Hurricane Gloria hit Long Island. I was 36 when Gloria hit Long Island...the most hyped storm before the internet... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, TriPol said: 36 years ago, Hurricane Gloria hit Long Island. In 6 days 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 My cousin is getting married Friday in Spring Lake. Fortunately it's an indoor wedding but I still feel bad seeing that it could be a lousy day weather-wise. Any chance this potential rainfall shuts off by Thursday night or early Friday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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