Cfa Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 80/70 and sunny in Suffolk. Didn’t rain at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 Onshore flow / low spinning east of Carolina https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 On 9/15/2021 at 2:47 PM, forkyfork said: 41st 90 for ewr. maybe one or two more next week Sat 9/18 looks like the next shot at 90 for EWR, next week could feature too much onshore flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 9 hours ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 75degs.(68/73), or +6. Month to date is 71.9[Normal] at its midpoint. Convienent. Could be 73.0[+2.1] by the 23rd. More likely 72.0[+1.1]. 74-78 today, e. wind, rain? late. EURO drops off by the 24th., but the GFS goes to the 29th, it seems. Reached 80 here yesterday. 72*(78%RH) here at 6am, some overcast. 77* by Noon. looks like we warm back up after any transitory cooldown in the Sep 23 - 25 period. We'll see if the guidance continues to show warmer for and by the final week of Sep. (9/227th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 0.67" rain past two weeks but 16.70" past 29 days. Was there some kind of storm in the middle there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 You know it’s a warm pattern when Islip reaches 81° on a NE wind in mid-September. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 79 here today, felt more comfortable than yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 3 hours ago, SACRUS said: Sat 9/18 looks like the next shot at 90 for EWR, next week could feature too much onshore flow. EWR is the only spot that could pull up 90s from now on and even that looks dicey. Models looking a lot more troughy late September so we'd have to have a monster heat ridge in October to get more 90s. Unlikely but not impossible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: EWR is the only spot that could pull up 90s from now on and even that looks dicey. Models looking a lot more troughy late September so we'd have to have a monster heat ridge in October to get more 90s. Unlikely but not impossible. I'd be OK with no 90s in October ever again, thanks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 The frontal system that produced scattered showers and thundershowers yesterday and today will move back toward the region tomorrow. As a result, some additional showers are likely. A warm September outcome remains on track. Despite a cooler than normal first 7-10 days (for example, the 9/1-7 anomaly was -2.5° in New York City and the 9/1-10 anomaly was -1.6° in New York City), September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region. The second half of the month could feature above to perhaps much above normal temperatures. As a result, 2021 is increasingly likely to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop. The SOI was +9.75 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.131 today. On September 14 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.022 (RMM). The September 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.897 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.8° (1.6° above normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 3 hours ago, Gravity Wave said: I'd be OK with no 90s in October ever again, thanks. I'd be okay with no more disgusting 70+ dew points ever again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 4 hours ago, bluewave said: You know it’s a warm pattern when Islip reaches 81° on a NE wind in mid-September. arent SST maxing out in September though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 9 hours ago, Torch said: Sun? Not any today so far here in western Nassau. we had some brief sunny periods early in the afternoon and that did make it feel hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 11 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, we needed the strong SE ridge to boost the SSTs for heavier snows. Luckily, the years that the SE Ridge ran the table without blocking like 2012 and 2020 were in the minority. Some of our best snowfalls have occurred a month after the record SE Ridge was replaced by blocking. The historic January 30” blizzard followed the historic +13.3 SE Ridge December 2015. The historic February 2018 SE Ridge and 80° at Newark was followed by the March historic 30” snows on Long Island. wait Long Island had 30" of snow in March? Not here lol Why is March snow so localized compared to say January snows? Maybe it's because with the higher sun angle it's much harder for urbanized areas to accumulate snow in March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: wait Long Island had 30" of snow in March? Not here lol Why is March snow so localized compared to say January snows? Maybe it's because with the higher sun angle it's much harder for urbanized areas to accumulate snow in March? Well in the NYC area, the further you are from Midtown Manhattan, the more snow you get in March. The boundary temps play a huge role in March since the sun angle is so much worse. March 2018 is a great example. Manhattan got 6-8" accumulation from the last storm that month, while Suffolk got 18"+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 70degs.(63/77), or +3-----way down from recent days. Month to date is 72[+0.3]. Should be about 71.7[+1.4] by the 25th. Reached 78 here yesterday. Today 74-78, e.wind to n.,cloudy/breaks, drizzle? 71*(91%RH) here at 6am, overcast. 74* at Noon. 78*(77%RH) at 2pm. 76* at 4pm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and still cool. Some widely scattered showers are possible. Most of the region will see no measurable rainfall. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 80° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 75.9°; 15-Year: 76.7° Newark: 30-Year: 77.4°; 15-Year: 78.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 78.6°; 15-Year: 79.4° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warmer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Continuation of the warm pattern for this time of year. More 80s this weekend. But models have now shifted to more blocking for later in September. Old run New run 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 GFS has a nice cool shot next Wed/Thur 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 57 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: GFS has a nice cool shot next Wed/Thur that big trough in the east was predicted a week ago at this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Wouldn’t mind an early freeze to kill the bugs and ragweed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 25 minutes ago, psv88 said: Wouldn’t mind an early freeze to kill the bugs and ragweed. The mozzies are unbearable this month. Every walk to the car is like running the gauntlet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 The EPS ends September with higher latitude blocking that becomes more south based over time. 9-27 to 10-4 10-04 to 10-11 10-11 to 10-18 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Thought we warmth well into October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Just now, qg_omega said: Thought we warmth well into October verdict is still out-sometimes the blocking doesn't materialize or is much weaker...also if it's south based, that's not all that cool here-see last winter when we had south based blocking and we had a month of temps in the 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 27 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Thought we warmth well into October sandy out to sea less than an inch in nyc 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 It’s always interesting to see how the EPS weeklies compare with the SEAS5 seasonal forecast. The Euro seasonal was picking up on the October blocking potential from the forecast issued back in July. South based blocks can still have above normal temperatures in the Northeast like we saw last winter. So the latitude of the block is important. Early July forecast for October 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 5 hours ago, bluewave said: It’s always interesting to see how the EPS weeklies compare with the SEAS5 seasonal forecast. The Euro seasonal was picking up on the October blocking potential from the forecast issued back in July. South based blocks can still have above normal temperatures in the Northeast like we saw last winter. So the latitude of the block is important. Early July forecast for October can we get a sunshine percentage forecast? I am sick and tired of cloudy days "warm" temperatures or not. Amount of sunshine is more important for those of us who like to enjoy being outdoors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 5 hours ago, forkyfork said: sandy out to sea less than an inch in nyc well if you combine the two statements, the second part is almost right, because we did get only about an inch of rain in Sandy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 9 hours ago, bluewave said: Continuation of the warm pattern for this time of year. More 80s this weekend. But models have now shifted to more blocking for later in September. Old run New run looks like highs in the 60s later next week? 40s for lows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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