September 2021

[lee59]

Most of the area easily staying below  70 today.

[Stormlover74]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

So far EWR only up to 69 so the 70(+) streak is in jeopardy.  Mostly cloudy now too.

 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

Made it to 70

[donsutherland1]

The streak goes on... At 4 pm. Newark had a temperature of 70 degrees. The record streak of 70-degree high temperatures is now 123 days.

[lee59]

It may never end at Newark. 

[psv88]

Made it to 65 here, really feels like fall today.

[lee59]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Made it to 65 here, really feels like fall today.

Yea, made it to 66 here. Most current temperatures in the area are in the low to mid 60s. 

[lee59]

When I checked the Newark readings at 4, it showed 70 degrees and the wind NW at 76mph. Now the temperature at Newark is 67 degrees. So I am wondering if the 70 degree reading was incorrect. It certainly seemed like an outlier temperature reading as I checked numerous local stations in the area at 4PM and the highest I could find was Caldwell NJ at 67.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

It may never end at Newark. 

It won't if it hit 70F today. Next 10-14 days look very mild. The only way it stays below 70F is if enough clouds/rain keep temperatures down.

[lee59]

If the clouds dissipate tonight, it will be the best chance for scattered frost in some of those northern valley areas, such as in the Catskills. 

[lee59]

I looked up Newark on Wunderground and it says high temperature 70 but it also says maximum wind speed 76mph.

[donsutherland1]

At 2:51 pm, the temperature reached a daily high of 70° at Newark. That extended Newark's record streak with high temperatures of 70° or above to 123 consecutive days.

New York City is finishing September with a mean temperature of 70.3° (1.1° above normal). As of 7 pm, that figure is 70.4°, but it is likely to fall to 70.3° as the mercury dips below 58° late this evening. 2021 is the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years.

What will likely turn out to be a warm October will start off on a cool note. Temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s and lower 70s during the afternoon. Warmer temperatures will return this weekend. Next week, the chance of precipitation will increase.

There is strong consensus on the long-range guidance that October will be an unseasonably warm month. The first half could feature much above normal readings in the Northern Plains into Central Canada. Bismarck could have one of its 5 warmest opening weeks in October on record. Overall, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas appear to be in line with a warmer to much warmer than normal October (a general 2°-4° above normal).

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop during October.

The SOI was +18.25 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.441 today.

On September 28 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.420 (RMM). The September 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.349 (RMM).

 

[bluewave]

Another top warmest September across the area.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1961	74.5	0
2	2005	73.5	0
3	2015	73.4	0
4	2021	72.5	0
5	2016	71.8	0
-	1971	71.8	0
6	2010	71.6	0
7	1959	71.5	0
8	2018	71.4	0
9	2011	71.2	0
10	1973	71.0	0
-	1931	71.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2005	74.9	0
2	2015	74.1	0
3	2016	73.8	0
4	1961	73.6	0
5	2007	73.0	0
6	2018	72.8	0
7	2021	72.7	0
8	2010	72.5	0
-	1959	72.5	0
9	2019	72.1	0
10	1998	71.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	73.0	0
-	1961	73.0	0
2	2005	72.1	0
3	1971	71.8	0
4	1959	71.3	0
5	2016	71.1	0
6	1983	71.0	0
7	2021	70.7	0
-	2018	70.7	0
8	2017	70.6	0
9	2010	70.5	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	70.9	0
2	2005	70.2	0
3	2018	69.8	0
4	2021	69.6	0
-	1980	69.6	0
5	2017	69.0	0
-	2011	69.0	0
6	2016	68.9	0
7	1998	68.6	0
8	2010	68.3	0
9	1983	68.1	0
-	1971	68.1	0
10	2008	67.7	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	71.1	0
2	2016	70.6	0
3	1961	70.5	0
4	2011	70.1	0
5	2021	69.8	0
-	2005	69.8	0
6	2018	69.5	0
7	1959	69.4	0
8	2010	69.3	0
9	2017	69.1	0
10	1971	69.0	0

[wdrag]

Sept worked out warmer and wetter than normal but no real HEAT to speak of. Onward.