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September 2021


wdrag
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Might this be an interesting first half of September for late season heat and mid season Tropical cyclones into the NYC area???  Have even less clue about the latter half of September.

Modeling does imply a warm first week of September, with a weakness in the Gulf States. That weakness is possibly related to tropical cyclones trying to run northward into or toward the the Gulf Coast states, and then find the weakness in the broad coast-coast southern USA 500MB ridge, tending to head northeast along or the interior of the East Coast.  How far north might they travel, if this implied pattern is generally correct?  Applied the NOAA.GOV CPC week 1-4 forecasts issued the 20th-22nd, and the September update from 8/15,  as well as the 12z/22 GEFS 500 mb members, and 12z/22 NAEFS mean sfc temperature departure from normal for the period Aug 30-Sept 6.    This does not mean NYC is heading for possibly another 10" month, but does suggest we're in a pattern that favors normal or above normal both for precip/temp this September in our NYC subforum. 

Long ranging beyond a week or two is not easy, and so this topic starter is just that... a tease of implied potential that can become wrong. MJO forecasts were not attempted to be applied. 

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For what it's worth, the Op single member 12z/23  GFS has two opportunities for tropical rainfall connections.  The Baha modeled TC arriving here or south of here around Sept 1? and the consistently cyclically modeled Sept 6-8 TC event.  Long ways to go and not spending any time on confidence except to note, existence of two MODELED events around the first week of Sept.  What actually happens here could easily be NIL. 

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Am not yet starting a thread for what will either be Ida or Julian (possible Center trap Atlantic TC naming may compromise the probable GMEX TC).  However,  multiple indications are that the GMEX TC will spew moisture - potentially a period of heavy weather into the Ohio Valley-mid Atlantic region between the 4th-8th.  Whether it remains just s of our NYC subforum is in question. Unamed and too early.  

Also, fwiw, and a remote possibility of minor RH infusion is what may happen with the eventual probable development of the eastern Pacific storm near Baha (Nora?).  Some of RH might break through the southwest USA and curl east late next week as well....again that's just a tiny chance (my estimate is 5 or 10%).  25/631A

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On 8/22/2021 at 5:15 PM, wdrag said:

Might this be an interesting first half of September for late season heat and mid season Tropical cyclones into the NYC area???  Have even less clue about the latter half of September.

Modeling does imply a warm first week of September, with a weakness in the Gulf States. That weakness is possibly related to tropical cyclones trying to run northward into or toward the the Gulf Coast states, and then find the weakness in the broad coast-coast southern USA 500MB ridge, tending to head northeast along or the interior of the East Coast.  How far north might they travel, if this implied pattern is generally correct?  Applied the NOAA.GOV CPC week 1-4 forecasts issued the 20th-22nd, and the September update from 8/15,  as well as the 12z/22 GEFS 500 mb members, and 12z/22 NAEFS mean sfc temperature departure from normal for the period Aug 30-Sept 6.    This does not mean NYC is heading for possibly another 10" month, but does suggest we're in a pattern that favors normal or above normal both for precip/temp this September in our NYC subforum. 

Long ranging beyond a week or two is not easy, and so this topic starter is just that... a tease of implied potential that can become wrong. MJO forecasts were not attempted to be applied. 

Walt analog 1944 for heat and September east coast TC

Secondary analog 1999

 

 

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7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Walt analog 1944 for heat and September east coast TC

Secondary analog 1999

 

 

Am unskilled at analogs.  I sort of stood by... had my doubts. So hoping you're right about 44, but have no idea.  Let's review at the end of September... just as we do all the topics.  Sure continues to look good for the first two weeks of Sept. Eric Blake SR MET at NHC just tweeted on the coming Ida or Julian, whatever it's named for GMEX.  Modeling continues large and strong (GFS-GGEM especially).

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23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs seems to be advertising a decent cool down starting next Wednesday and lasting thru labor day. It'll probably end up a period of average temps 

This is likely our last heatwave of the year.  It'll probably hit 90 at some point in the first half of September but this week probably has the last period of extended 90+ heat for the season.

 

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This is likely our last heatwave of the year.  It'll probably hit 90 at some point in the first half of September but this week probably has the last period of extended 90+ heat for the season.

 

It's possible early next week is the last shot at 90s. If not then Friday could be the last day.

Looks like a pretty strong blocking event for 1st half of September along with rising PNA. 

The likelihood of 90+ is dramatically reduced after mid Sept though not impossible as we've seen 90s in October.

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Ida/Julian: No named storm yet heading for GMEX and no thread at this time but it now reverses with the potential minor Baha influence, with a much faster first three days of Sept influence here (unless stays just south),  and the Baha minor contribution leaking across the northern Rockies toward the 6th-7th.  The latter continues to be a 5% risk, imo. Ida/Julian whichever it is (competition first named with the mid Atlantic), can be monitored for a possible rainfall contribution up here. I won't be adding much more to this until Friday morning.

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So the( probable) IDA thread has started, taking that TC related event off the Sept thread.  Now we look to a Nora (Pac Bsin) contribution???? around the 5th as the modeling continues to infuse a tad bit of PW moisture across the the Rockies into the Plains and eventually our way??? And then another, this time Atlantic Basin TC might be of local interest here around the 10th.   Both of these are a bit of stretch but am monitoring Septembers first two weeks as a period of TC interest. 

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No change on IDA, tho impacts may delay day or two in some of the modeling???  I just don't know. Waiting it out.   NORA has an increasing chance of some contribution to rain here, ~ the 5th or a bit later (examine ensembles).  Additionally, if IDA delays enough, the two TC's could combine.  Lot's of uncertainty on timing both. 

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September

Beyond that as we open the month the remnants of Ida appear as most guidance does this (suspect is be quicker), slow to exit the US.  ECM has her south and keeps us in the murky/humid and at times onshore flow through next Thu. 

Ridge and warm/flow for the long weekend 9/4 and onwards and overall looking warm in the long range with nay cooldown short-lived and likely correct warmer as we get closer in.  More 90s maybe 9/5-9/6

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On 8/25/2021 at 10:09 AM, LibertyBell said:

Walt analog 1944 for heat and September east coast TC

Secondary analog 1999

 

 

I remember my Aunt telling me this Tug Boat in Coney Island Creek (we called it purfume bay) sunk during the 1944 Hurricane...She the island was flooded...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52896093/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52896175

1961 coney island creek.jpg

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45 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I remember my Aunt telling me this Tug Boat in Coney Island Creek (we called it purfume bay) sunk during the 1944 Hurricane...She the island was flooded...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52896093/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52896175

1961 coney island creek.jpg

That was an exceptional storm for being so close to land.....200 mph gusts on the Jersey shore? I wonder how that happened.

It looks like this was probably purely tropical when it made landfall up here.

At 12:00 UTC on September 13, the hurricane reached its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (230 km/h),[3] and five hours later, a ship documented a minimum barometric pressure of 933 mbar (hPa; 27.55 inHg). The storm's pressure may have been lower at the time as it is unknown whether or not the observation took place in the eye, though the 909 mbar (hPa; 26.85 inHg) pressure suggested by meteorologist Ivan Ray Tannehill was considered too low.

The hurricane began to gradually weaken after reaching peak intensity on September 13.[3] In the morning hours of September 14,[2] the storm passed just east of Cape Hatteras and eastern Virginia as a small but powerful hurricane with winds of 125 mph (205 km/h).[1] Afterwards, the cyclone curved slightly further towards the northeast and continued to accelerate;[2] at 02:00 UTC on September 15, the hurricane made landfall near Southampton in eastern Long Island with winds of 105 mph (165 km/h).[1] The storm then crossed the island and Long Island Sound before making a second landfall two hours later near Point Judith, Rhode Island as a slightly weaker storm with winds of 100 mph (160 km/h).[1][2] After crossing Rhode Island and Massachusetts, the tropical system transitioned into an extratropical cyclone off the coast of Maine on September 15;[1] these extratropical remnants continued to track towards the northeast and across the Canadian Maritimes before they were last noted merging with another extratropical cyclone off of Greenland at 12:00 UTC on September 16.

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Ida to open September morn on a wet note (2-4 inches of rain) Wed (9/1) THu (9/2)  beyond there the long weekend Fri (9/3) through Mon (9/6) looks overall dry and near normal.  Ida will pull the trough and some cooler air into the region highs near 80 lows near 60 overall.  Beyond there similarly to the last part in July - cooler period ahead of next warm up for 10 days to two weeks and warmer times look to return by the Fri 10th. Way out there.  

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4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Ida to open September morn on a wet note (2-4 inches of rain) Wed (9/1) THu (9/2)  beyond there the long weekend Fri (9/3) through Mon (9/6) looks overall dry and near normal.  Ida will pull the trough and some cooler air into the region highs near 80 lows near 60 overall.  Beyond there similarly to the last part in July - cooler period ahead of next warm up for 10 days to two weeks and warmer times look to return by the Fri 10th. Way out there.  

looks like east coast tropical activity will quiet down after these remnants pass through, might be similar to last year.

 

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4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Ida to open September morn on a wet note (2-4 inches of rain) Wed (9/1) THu (9/2)  beyond there the long weekend Fri (9/3) through Mon (9/6) looks overall dry and near normal.  Ida will pull the trough and some cooler air into the region highs near 80 lows near 60 overall.  Beyond there similarly to the last part in July - cooler period ahead of next warm up for 10 days to two weeks and warmer times look to return by the Fri 10th. Way out there.  

Looks like we start September-3* for 1st week and maybe beyond. Forecast high for cpk are 72,74 74,76,79 and 81 for labor day followed by what looks to be a nice cool shot next week. Normal highs are still around 80*.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Ida can push some spots over the 30” rainfall mark for the Memorial Day to Labor Day weekend period.

 

Data for May 28, 2021 through August 30, 2021
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Total Precipitation 
NJ HARRISON COOP 27.02
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 26.62
NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 26.02
NY PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 25.91
NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 25.27
NJ WAYNE TWP 0.8 SSW CoCoRaHS 24.21
NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 23.87
NJ KEARNY 1.7 NW CoCoRaHS 23.79
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 23.34

If we just go by JJA, is there still a chance to reach 30" for met summer?

 

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  • Rjay pinned this topic

 

Sep to open wet with remnants of Ida 2- 4 inches od rain, then a dry  cooler weekend 9/3 - 9/6 near 80 each day and perhaps low 80s by labor day (9/6).  Next week we watch another front potentially get hung up before warmer air arrives with rising heights into the east later next week 9/10.

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20 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Sep to open wet with remnants of Ida 2- 4 inches od rain, then a dry  cooler weekend 9/3 - 9/6 near 80 each day and perhaps low 80s by labor day (9/6).  Next week we watch another front potentially get hung up before warmer air arrives with rising heights into the east later next week 9/10.

Looks like we are finished with the heatwaves. Not saying it could not hit 90..although most models don't show any through the middle of the month..But typical September weather takes over with 70's and the warmest low 80's

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