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The next 8 days are averaging 70degs.(63/77), or +5.

Month to date is  72.0[+1.0].        Should be 70.6[+1.0] by the 29th.(asjusted).

Today:  72-75, p. cloudy, e. wind.

1" to 2" during Thurs/Fri. period.

EURO goes ballistic with the ULL at the end of the month and gives us 6"!!!.      GFS is a pimple.  lol

Reached 77* briefly, here yesterday.

66*(77%RH) here at 6am.       69* at 9am.           77* by 3pm.        79* at 4pm.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and pleasant. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 74°

Newark: 77°

Philadelphia: 79°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 74.3°; 15-Year: 75.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 75.9°; 15-Year: 77.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 77.1°; 15-Year: 78.1°

A moderate to perhaps significant rainfall is possible during the middle or latter part of the week. A general 0.50”-1.50” rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The next big WAR amplification is in early October with the potential for a hurricane to be somewhere underneath.


115BF45D-5E13-4209-B2DC-D9F2E8167722.thumb.png.765fbb824d4b8003fac0c5ea6f52ae62.png

42743CCE-162E-4D99-AB8B-B39995170E0C.thumb.png.817959f30729d9dd41a002a52d59105c.png

This is the kind of situation that is possible under some of the fairly ominous monthly 500 mb forecasts for October (and weekly forecasts going into October).

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The next big WAR amplification is in early October with the potential for a hurricane to be somewhere underneath.


115BF45D-5E13-4209-B2DC-D9F2E8167722.thumb.png.765fbb824d4b8003fac0c5ea6f52ae62.png

42743CCE-162E-4D99-AB8B-B39995170E0C.thumb.png.817959f30729d9dd41a002a52d59105c.png

 

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is the kind of situation that is possible under some of the fairly ominous monthly 500 mb forecasts for October (and weekly forecasts going into October).

Fun tracking times ahead for sure.  E coast may need to watch 98L/Sam down the road with that upper air map, should it come to fruition. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro and UKMET continue the heavy rains into Saturday since they have a stronger WAR than the CMC and GFS. 
 

C76A5089-C556-4EE7-97B1-0764E646FEC7.thumb.png.c5915d12059e2e81f83caf795d39258f.png
 

0AFF0768-4513-42BC-BE56-73641086E300.thumb.png.931388f84c2faefa42c366813ea145ab.png

I don't have access to the UKMET surface maps, but the Euro's appeared weaker at the surface over the last few runs. The 00z basically gets the rain through the metro around late morning on Friday. I'm just a casual lurker who mostly follows winter storms, so definitely outside my comfort zone. That said, curious what signals you see that would favor rain continuing into Saturday.

I have a selfish reason for needing this rain to get out of here as soon as possible, so I am also biased and rooting hard for at least a model blend of the GFS/EURO :)

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17 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

My cousin is getting married Friday in Spring Lake.  Fortunately it's an indoor wedding but I still feel bad seeing that it could be a lousy day weather-wise.  Any chance this potential rainfall shuts off by Thursday night or early Friday morning?

Spring Lake is beautiful 

Enjoy 

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ridge east of New England on the UKMET and Euro is just slightly stronger than the CMC. So the UKMET and Euro linger the convection into Saturday. Probably need a few more model cycles to pin down the exact timing of the front.

8AA2E1E7-DC7C-4B67-838F-B6486BB240C0.thumb.png.f5f65b94d9af3ee2eb3ec31f1b98bab9.png
00575CC1-CF90-42A1-9A0F-470DF80C56E7.thumb.png.6dd99c9d568c7f03b5f6ea88d14ccd0e.png

Gotcha, appreciate the additional context. Getting married on Friday near Hudson, NY. Rooting VERY hard for a quicker solution to be realized.

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2 hours ago, rmo09001 said:

Gotcha, appreciate the additional context. Getting married on Friday near Hudson, NY. Rooting VERY hard for a quicker solution to be realized.

Congratulations. The 12z UKMET joined the CMC. Heaviest convection later Thursday into early Friday. The front keeps moving enough that both models are now dry for Saturday.

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Congratulations. The 12z UKMET joined the CMC. Heaviest convection later Thursday into early Friday. The front keeps moving enough that both models are now dry for Saturday.

Saturday should be OK. Maybe a lingering shower in the morning?? The main activity will be later Thursday into Friday as you noted. I think a 1-3" rainfall w/embedded thunderstorms is still on the table.

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8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is the kind of situation that is possible under some of the fairly ominous monthly 500 mb forecasts for October (and weekly forecasts going into October).

But let's remember that the chances for anything to happen here are extremely small.  What usually happens is a storm into the SE or Gulf or even more likely out to sea, which is what's been happening this month.

 

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15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But let's remember that the chances for anything to happen here are extremely small.  What usually happens is a storm into the SE or Gulf or even more likely out to sea, which is what's been happening this month.

 

While true, the odds would be greater than climatology. Even indirect effects could produce flooding. Of course, what will likely become Sam could recurve if the pattern is still evolving. But there’s always the possibility of additional storms, as it has been a very active season.

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11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

While true, the odds would be greater than climatology. Even indirect effects could produce flooding. Of course, what will likely become Sam could recurve if the pattern is still evolving. But there’s always the possibility of additional storms, as it has been a very active season.

That trajectory looked to me like a southern track.  Do you think that splitting the two predominant tracks (SE/Gulf and out to sea/Bermuda), which would be Hatteras to New England may be more likely than, say, when we had Henri come up here in August?  If so it looks like a first week of October window doesn't it, Don?

 

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Another 80° day at Newark as the endless summer pattern continues.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 
Missing Count
1 2015 118 0
2 1994 114 0
3 2016 113 0
- 1993 113 0
- 1991 113 0
4 2011 111 0
- 2010 111 0
5 1959 108 0
  2021 108 102
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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another 80° day at Newark as the endless summer pattern continues.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 
Missing Count
1 2015 118 0
2 1994 114 0
3 2016 113 0
- 1993 113 0
- 1991 113 0
4 2011 111 0
- 2010 111 0
5 1959 108 0
  2021 108 102

Outside chance of getting 10 more days before cold weather finally comes in?

 

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39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Outside chance of getting 10 more days before cold weather finally comes in?

 

The potential for a few more 80° degree days showing up over the next week.

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   9/21/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      WED 22| THU 23| FRI 24| SAT 25| SUN 26| MON 27| TUE 28|WED CLIMO
 N/X  67  81| 69  76| 61  75| 59  74| 59  81| 59  77| 59  75| 61 54 72
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