September 2021

[Poker2015]

54 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Absolutely pouring with thunder

1.54" on the day so far...almost all of it in 30 mins

[donsutherland1]

Through 4 pm, Binghamton has received 1.29” of rain. That breaks the daily record of 1.24” from 2003.

[FPizz]

5 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

1.54" on the day so far...almost all of it in 30 mins

Almost the same today, 1.50"  

 

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, FPizz said:

When I was in Piscataway NJ one house planted 6 of them along their driveway.  They lasted the summer and were dead the next year.  

There is a home in New Rochelle, NY with palm trees.

[FPizz]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There is a home in New Rochelle, NY with palm trees.

Maybe these people didn't take care of them.  It was funny to see though when they looked healthy.  

[acoolerclimate]

2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Maybe these people didn't take care of them.  It was funny to see though when they looked healthy.  

I did a double take when I saw the Palm Trees here in Rhode Island. Very close to me, but I think it's the town of Lincoln. It looked so odd!! 

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Maybe these people didn't take care of them.  It was funny to see though when they looked healthy.  

The ones in New Rochelle are thriving. 

[Rjay]

[donsutherland1]

The cooling power of trees?

Today’s high temperature was 79 degrees at Central Park. For the first time, Central Park failed to reach 80 degrees on 2 consecutive days where Bridgeport, Islip, JFK, LGA, and New Haven all reached 80 degrees or above.

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

It’s 81 here today. 80 at kisp 

So what?

It is 9/23. What is that+5?

 

The real story of these past few days hasn’t been extreme warmth…It is extreme humidity and very warm overnight lows because of that humidity.

If it was September 23 and you were looking at 80° with historically normal humidity you would say it was a pleasantly mild day. Instead you’re getting swarmed by mosquitoes as you walk through soup

[ThundaBOOMA]

Just now, jfklganyc said:

So what?

It is 9/23. What is that+5?

 

The real story of these past few days hasn’t been extreme warmth…It is extreme humidity and very warm overnight lows because of that humidity.

If it was September 23 and you were looking at 80° with historically normal humidity you would say it was a pleasantly mild day. Instead you’re getting swarmed by mosquitoes as you walk through soup

Should be gone after tonight.

[psv88]

1 minute ago, jfklganyc said:

So what?

It is 9/23. What is that+5?

 

The real story of these past few days hasn’t been extreme warmth…It is extreme humidity and very warm overnight lows because of that humidity.

If it was September 23 and you were looking at 80° with historically normal humidity you would say it was a pleasantly mild day. Instead you’re getting swarmed by mosquitoes as you walk through soup

It’s beautiful. Wind keeping the mosquitoes at bay. Went for a swim. Spectacular 

[the_other_guy]

Just now, ThundaBOOMA said:

Should be gone after tonight.

Yeah but it’s never really going away because this is the new normal. Extended warm wet sectors. Like 55 and humid xmas week…

[ThundaBOOMA]

Just now, jfklganyc said:

Yeah but it’s never really going away because this is the new normal. Extended warm wet sectors. Like 55 and humid xmas week…

I'm not at all convinced that non winters are the new normal lol.

[Cfa]

77/74 right now with a nice tropical breeze.

High of 83, low of 73.

[lee59]

1 hour ago, acoolerclimate said:

I did a double take when I saw the Palm Trees here in Rhode Island. Very close to me, but I think it's the town of Lincoln. It looked so odd!! 

I see restaurants on Long Island with palm trees. I believe they die in the winter unless you bring them inside. People want the Florida look up north during the summer months.

[psv88]

52 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if the 73° minimum at Islip holds as it would be a new record high for so late in September.

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         81   1213 PM  88    1970  72      9       80       
                                      1980                           
  MINIMUM         73    631 AM  40    1976  56     17       47       
  AVERAGE         77                        64     13       64     

 
 

9/23	71 in 1970	70 in 2019	67 in 2011+
9/24	69 in 1970	67 in 2011	67 in 2001+
9/25	72 in 1970	67 in 2011	66 in 2010
9/26	70 in 2018	69 in 1970	68 in 2005
9/27	69 in 2007	68 in 2017	68 in 1998
9/28	70 in 2010	68 in 2011	67 in 2020
9/29	68 in 1979	68 in 1967	66 in 2020+
9/30	70 in 2010	67 in 1986	62 in 1979

Low of 73 here too. 77/72 now

[uofmiami]

Just now, psv88 said:

Low of 73 here too. 77/72 now

Same at both my stations as well.  That SE wind off the water gave a nice uniform low temp it seems across the island.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.04" of rain so far today.

[lee59]

5 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Same at both my stations as well.  That SE wind off the water gave a nice uniform low temp it seems across the island.

73 here also.

[CIK62]

Action for me in a matter of minutes:

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

Yeah but it’s never really going away because this is the new normal. Extended warm wet sectors. Like 55 and humid xmas week…

That is literally the worst weather. Too cold for ac but the heat just makes it swampy inside. Uncomfortable sleeping weather. 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

It is difficult for a variety of reasons (not to mention a very bad idea). It is very difficult to target just a single type of insect. No matter how we do it, there are often non-target species that die off. In Florida they have released GMO mosquitos that will hopefully reduce the population. But more on the ecology side, we don’t want to make mosquitoes extinct. The larval stage feeds tons of amphibians and fish. They are quite beneficial to aquatic systems. We could work to control the larvae stage through fish, etc and many areas do this. You can stock a small pond with fish that will consume abundant larvae. The adult stage as well fed a variety of organisms. While we hate them, and believe me, I get bit aa ton, they are beneficial. Once disease starts spreading though, you Weill see health departments start spraying. NJ actually has one of the best mosquito programs in the country. 

Female mosquitoes and female horse flies are a real pestilence because of being such blood suckers.  I wish there was a way to alter them genetically to prevent them from being able to do that and then combine that with the breeding population.  The GM program in Florida sounds interesting, I want to see how that works- they're certainly worse down there than pretty much anywhere else in the country.

 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

That is literally the worst weather. Too cold for ac but the heat just makes it swampy inside. Uncomfortable sleeping weather. 

oh trust me it isn't too cold for a/c lol, it was sunny here for the first half of the day and in the 80s and I've had it on all day

 

[LibertyBell]

42 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Same at both my stations as well.  That SE wind off the water gave a nice uniform low temp it seems across the island.

is 73 the SST?

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, SACRUS said:

9/22 (highs)

9/22

PHL: 84
New Brnswck: 84
EWR: 83
LGA: 83
TTN: 83
TEB: 82
ACY: 81
BLM: 80
JFK: 80
ISP: 80
NYC: 79
 

 

it was 80-85 and sunny for a good chunk of the day felt like it was in the 90s

 

[JustinRP37]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

oh trust me it isn't too cold for a/c lol, it was sunny here for the first half of the day and in the 80s and I've had it on all day

 

I meant 55 in December and muggy like he was talking about that one Christmas. It was gross. 

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

is 73 the SST?

 

Looks like 72-74 based on hourly observation report around the area

 

STATION/POSITION TIME  SKY/WX   TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                                AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC)          (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
NY Harb Entrance 2250               73  140/ 21/ 25 1011.9          7/ 7
20 S Fire Island 2250               72              1013.3          7/ 7
Great South Bay  2215            75 78  130/ 14/ 19   N/A
23 SSW Montauk P 2250            74 72  130/ 16/ 19 1016.2          6/ 7
15 E Barnegat Li 2256               73                N/A           7/ 8
Hudson Canyon    2250            76 74  140/ 16/ 17 1014.9          7/ 8
Kings Point      2230            77     190/ 18/ 23 1013.8
Execution Rocks  2245            78     150/ 16/ 17   N/A
Western LI Sound 2145            77     150/ 19/ 25   N/A
Central LI Sound NOT AVBL
Robbins Reef     2230            70     210/  7/ 12 1013.0

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Ahead of an advancing front, the temperature soared into the lower 80s in much of the region. However, for a record 2nd consecutive day, the temperature at New York City's Central Park failed to reach 80° when all of the following cities reached 80° or above: Bridgeport, Islip, New Haven, New York City-JFK, and New York City-LGA.

Through 8 pm rainfall totals included:

Allentown: 1.76"
Atlantic city: 0.74"
Baltimore: 0.69"
Binghamton: 1.29" (old record: 1.24", 2003)
Harrisburg: 1.33"
Mount Pocono, PA: 2.49"
New York City-NYC: 0.94"
Newark: 0.52"
Philadelphia: 1.45"
Scranton: 1.39"
Washington, DC: 1.30"

Additional rainfall is likely overnight into the first part of tomorrow. Behind the front, the sun will return tomorrow and readings will reach the lower 70s.

The MJO had recently been locked in Phase 3 at a high amplitude, frequently in excess of 1.500. Only 2006 and 2009 saw the MJO in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 2 or more days during September 10-20. Both years saw September end with a cold shot that continued into the first days of October. Both days saw Central Park's temperature fall to 49° on September 30. A fairly sharp rebound in temperatures followed. October wound up wetter than normal with 7.07" rainfall in 2006 and 5.58" of rainfall in 2009. Normal rainfall (1991-2020) is 4.38".

Despite the guidance of a few days ago and a likely cold shot to end the month, 2021 is still on course to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Considering that the close of September is still more than 10 days out, the guidance can still reverse. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was -10.22 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.040 today.

On September 21 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.554 (RMM). The September 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.530 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.6° (1.4° above normal).

 

[the_other_guy]

“However, for a record 2nd consecutive day, the temperature at New York City's Central Park failed to reach 80° when all of the following cities reached 80° or above: Bridgeport, Islip, New Haven, New York City-JFK, and New YorkCity-LGA.”

 

All those stations are east. Hearing reports of sun to the east.

I live along the Hudson in line with CPK and we didnt have a drop of sun all day.

Also never hit 80