August 2021

[Byrdhousebv]

3 hours ago, nycwinter said:

does not feel as bad a previous hot spells in the city dewpoints still in the 60;s you can already tell summer is coming to a close..

It's the "sun angle"; just can't keep that oppressive heat discomfort this time of the season....LOL

[nycwinter]

27 minutes ago, Byrdhousebv said:

It's the "sun angle"; just can't keep that oppressive heat discomfort this time of the season....LOL

agreed diminished sun angle already  a factor..

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It would be some streak if moisture from 99L makes it in by Labor Day weekend. 
 

 

 

It'll depend on whether or not future Ida gets left behind or not. I lean towards it recurving with the coming shortwave.

If that happens we'll see a lot more tropical downpours and possibly gusty conditions with spinners.

[bluewave]

Islip tied the record high and Newark missed by 1°.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
0441 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2021

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT ISLIP NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORDS OF 92 SET IN 1998 AND 1969.

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
437 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2021

...................................

...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 25 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         96    255 PM  97    1993  84     12       92       
  MINIMUM         73    509 AM  48    1940  67      6       73       
  AVERAGE         85                        75     10       83    

[doncat]

90/68 temp split today.

[donsutherland1]

Today saw temperatures rise into the lower and middle 90s across much of the region. Tomorrow will be a similar day.

90° Days for Select Cities (through August 25):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 22 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 46 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 22 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 10 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 13 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 32 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 22 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 7 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 9 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 23 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 15 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 37 (2020: 33 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 33 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 17 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 42 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 21 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 23 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Much of the remainder of this week will feature unseasonably warm temperatures. Cooler weather and possibly some rain will arrive for the weekend.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around August 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.41°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. Afterward, La Niña could begin to develop.

The SOI was +10.07 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.600 today.

On August 23 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.586 (RMM). The August 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.672 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.3° (1.3° above normal).

 

[gravitylover]

I dunno, the 87/88 I dealt with this afternoon was pretty hot and uncomfortable. Maybe it wouldn't be quite as unpleasant if the AC in my car worked but it was hot.

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

You are pretty much just talking about the immediate shore areas. We have had one top 10 hottest summer after another for the last 10 years. Outside of places like JFK, a SW flow can be very hot also. But JFK has been leading the area in highest dew points since the record humidity increase in 2016. So the the higher heat indices at a place like JFK can make it feel as hot without all the 90° days like a westerly flow summer has at the South Shore.

I cant wait until we get back to those extremely hot Sonoran Heat Pump summers!  Aren't those our hottest summers for the entire area though? I saw that EWR has their hottest summers in that kind of situation too (1993, 2010).  Get that 120 degree air to come all the way east, slightly modified of course.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Islip tied the record high and Newark missed by 1°.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
0441 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2021

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT ISLIP NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORDS OF 92 SET IN 1998 AND 1969.

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
437 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2021

...................................

...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 25 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         96    255 PM  97    1993  84     12       92       
  MINIMUM         73    509 AM  48    1940  67      6       73       
  AVERAGE         85                        75     10       83    

wow 1993 was still setting records even this late in the summer

 

[Stormlover74]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow 1993 was still setting records even this late in the summer

 

It was my first day of college and I remember sweating my ass off in the dorm

[SACRUS]

8/25

EWR: 96
LGA: 94
PHL: 94
TEB: 93
New Brnswck: 93
ISP: 92
BLM: 92
ACY: 91
TTN: 91
NYC: 91
JFK: 89

[Rjay]

28 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

8/25

EWR: 96
LGA: 94
PHL: 94
TEB: 93
New Brnswck: 93
ISP: 92
BLM: 92
ACY: 91
TTN: 91
NYC: 91
JFK: 89

2 days in a row ISP beats NYC lol 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

It was my first day of college and I remember sweating my ass off in the dorm

I remember we had back to back days in the 90s as late as mid September as Cat 3 Hurricane Emily grazed Cape Hatteras and missed us wide right.

 

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, Rjay said:

2 days in a row ISP beats NYC lol 

That's awesome, what's a tourney without a few upsets lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

8/25

EWR: 96
LGA: 94
PHL: 94
TEB: 93
New Brnswck: 93
ISP: 92
BLM: 92
ACY: 91
TTN: 91
NYC: 91
JFK: 89

I call foul on the JFK high.  It was actually hotter on the south shore today than yesterday by 1 degree.  How could JFK have possibly been stuck at 89 on a westerly wind?  I hit 91 between 3 and 4 PM while it hit 90 here yesterday at 5 PM.  JFK had a high of 92 yesterday no way no how they were 3 degrees lower today.

 

[Poker2015]

Hit 99.1 here today...was a nice over performing day.

[Stormlover74]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember we had back to back days in the 90s as late as mid September as Cat 3 Hurricane Emily grazed Cape Hatteras and missed us wide right.

 

I was in Central PA so we missed that but in a few months we'd have our best winter ever 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I was in Central PA so we missed that but in a few months we'd have our best winter ever 

Yeah I remember it was in the 20s for lows early in November and then we had the 80 degree high on November 15th a day after the NYC Marathon (a real Indian summer) and then it was all cold after that, basically a storm every 3 or 4 days and almost wall to wall cold right to the end of March.  First wintry storm was a snowstorm between Christmas and New Years.

 

 

[Cfa]

96/71 split today. 93/69 yesterday.

[Roger Smith]

Current top 21 July-August total rainfalls at NYC

Rank __ Year __ JUL __ AUG ___ total

_01 ____ 2011 __ 3.03 _ 18.95 __ 21.98

_02 ____ 2021 _ 11.09 __ 9.65 __ 20.74 (five days to add)

_03 ____ 1971 __ 7.20 __ 9.37 __ 16.57

_04 ____ 1927 __ 6.48 __ 9.83 __ 16.31

_05 ____ 1942 __ 7.15 __ 9.08 __ 16.23

_06 ____ 1889 _ 11.89 __ 4.27 __ 16.16

_07 ____ 2018 __ 7.45 __ 8.59 __ 16.04

_08 ____ 1990 __ 3.51 _ 12.36 __ 15.87

_09 ____ 1975 _ 11.77 __ 3.05 __ 14.82

_ 10 ____ 1960 __ 8.29 __ 6.26 __ 14.55

_ 11 ____ 1919 __ 8.50 __ 5.82 __ 14.32

_ 12 ____ 1901 __ 7.64 __ 6.55 __ 14.19

_ 13 ____ 1873 __ 4.61 __ 9.56 __ 14.17

_ 14 ____ 1872 __ 7.83 __ 6.29 __ 14.12

_ 15 ____ 2007 __ 6.89 __ 7.18 __ 14.07

_ 16 ____ 1875 __ 4.86 __ 8.97 __ 13.83

_ 17 ____ 1880 __ 8.53 __ 5.26 __ 13.79

_ 18 ____ 1926 __ 6.38 __ 7.28 __ 13.66

_ 19 ____ 1989 __ 5.13 __ 8.44 __ 13.57

_ 20 ____ 1928 __ 8.89 __ 4.57 __ 13.46

_ 21 ____ 1897 __ 9.56 __ 3.77 __ 13.33

_______________________________________________

With only 2.62" in June, the met-summer total for 2021 is currently 23.36" which is ranked second  -- 2011 remains ahead at 25.23" and 1975 is third at 22.40" while 1989 fourth at 22.36" -- seems then that 2021 has a chance of finishing as wettest met summer. It needs 1.88"  more to beat 2011.

(1903 not in the above list had 20.43" thanks to a very wet June ... 20th place 1928 above moved well up the list for summer with 20.50" as June also quite wet). 2003 is well up the list thanks to a very wet June, its JJA total was 19.87" but it was well outside this list for JA.

The same is true for 2006 which had a total of 20.79" but only 12.24" of that in July-Aug. 

A third example is 2009 with a summer total of 21.38" thanks to 10.05" in June.

2007 had almost the same summer total as 2006 (20.62") but qualified for the above list in 15th adding 6.55" inches from June. 

Current top twenty for summer totals ...

 1. 2011 (25.23) ________ 11. 2003 (19.87)

 2. 2021 (23.36) _______ 12. 1942 (19.82)

 3. 1975 (22.40) _______ 13. 2018 (19.15)

 4. 1989 (22.36) _______ 14. 1971 (18.88)

 5. 2009 (21.38) _______ 15. 1889 (18.55)

 6. 2006 (20.79) ______ 16. 1990 (18.37)

 7. 2007 (20.62) _______ 17. 1871 (18.22)

 8. 1928 (20.50) _______ 18. 1919 (18.16)

 9. 1903 (20.43) _______ 19. 1884 (17.62)

10. 1927 (20.01) _______ 20. 1967 (17.57)

Note that seven of the top 13 are in the period 2003 to 2021. 

Half of the list dates back only to 1975 (the most recent 47 cases

with 106 others taking the other half, note three cases from 1967 to

1975 and the only other semblance of a cluster was 1919 to 1928

with three. 

[Rtd208]

High for the day yesterday was 97 here.

Current temp 77/DP 70/RH 81%

[CIK62]

The last 6 days of August are averaging 83degs.(75/92), or +11.

Month to date is  77.3[+0.9].         Would end at 78.4[+2.4].        More likely 77.4.

78*(80%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue.      80* at 9am.    84*(75%RH) at Noon.        Fell back to 83*, now back to 84*(80%RH) at 3pm.   Low haze, fog and sea breeze.

Only 87* here yesterday.

GFS keeps moving putative IDA to the east,{A N.O. Cat. 3 Job?}and now we can get some rain next Wed./Thurs. from leftovers.    The holiday period would then be nice and BN.    btw.   Katrina was 902mb, 99L gets to 930mb maybe?     It has to pass Cuba/Yucatan successfully for this to happen.

[bluewave]

After record warmth in June and a pullback of the heat in a July, the heat is coming on strong in August. Even Long Island is seeing impressive heat for August. This is only the 8th August at Islip to reach 5 days of 90°.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
	1980	8	0
	2016	7	0
-	2005	7	0
	1995	6	0
	2021	5	6
-	2018	5	0
-	2006	5	0
-	2002	5	0

 

[LoboLeader1]

74*/ DP 70/ RH 88%

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and hot. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 90s in most of the region with some places topping out in the middle 90s.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 90°

Newark: 94°

Philadelphia: 92°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 82.1°; 15-Year: 81.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 83.5°; 15-Year: 83.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.6°; 15-Year: 84.3°

The very warm weather will continue through tomorrow before it turns cooler for the weekend.

[MJO812]

Wet Saturday ahead

[dmillz25]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wet Saturday ahead

Oh no lol the bride of the wedding I’m going to is going to freak lol

[Intensewind002]

Hit 90 and 92 back at home the past two days, looks like a fun little heat wave im missing out on. Not even that humid either, dewpoints were only in the 60s

[Brian5671]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wet Saturday ahead

all depends on where the front stalls-some models are reasonably dry N and E of NYC

[SACRUS]

85 / 74 very tropical.  Some storms possible later to coincide with the arrival of the high humdity and dewpoints.  One more day of the heatwave and in some cases day 5 tomorrow (Friday 8/27) before front and some storms /clouds linger through the weekend Sat 8/28 - Sun 8/29.  Ridge rebuilds Mon (8/30) and Tue (8/31) and if enough sunshine the net shot at 90s.

 

Beyond there as we open next month all eyes on the remnants of what will be Ida come north from the Gulf TX/LA border and traverse the Mississippi valley before exiting or coming up the coast as a trough/front approach the east coast the middle/end of next week.  beyond there it looks to return to a warmer/humid flow.