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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The current heatwave is helping Newark maintain the 4th warmest summer position. This is the first time since 2010 and 2011 that Newark had two consecutive top 10 warmest summers. So the strongest heat is focused west of the Hudson this year rather than east last summer. So LGA and EWR have traded places from last year.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1993 79.2 0
2 2010 78.7 0
3 1994 78.5 0
4 2021 78.2 7
5 2011 78.0 0
6 2005 77.8 0
7 1988 77.7 0
8 2020 77.6 0
- 2016 77.6 0
- 1973 77.6 0
9 1999 77.1 0
10 1995 77.0 0


 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2020 79.5 0
2 2010 79.1 0
3 2016 78.8 0
4 2005 78.0 0
5 2018 77.9 0
6 1966 77.5 0
7 2021 77.4 7
- 2006 77.4 0
- 1999 77.4 0
8 2019 77.3 0
- 2012 77.3 0
- 1991 77.3 0
9 1994 77.2 0
10 1995 77.1 0

I love the EWR list because I find their top list is closer to what our climate really is than LGA which is much more polluted by high min from UHI.  EWR list definitely matches how I experience heat, which is that my two hottest summers were 2010 and 1993.  Does JFK's top list also match EWR's?  (I would add 1983 and 2002 to the list too.)

 

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19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It doesn't mean that other summers can't be hot, of course they can, but the majority of the country has seen some of its hottest summers in this 11 year cycle, What convinced me is a map of temperature anomalies for the entire CONUS for 11 year cycle summers starting from 1933; it's wall to wall red.

 

there's no cycle, sorry

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34 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

there's no cycle, sorry

what about this?

 

https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/sun-space-weather/sunspot-cycle

 

11-year Cycle - Usually!

The duration of the sunspot cycle is, on average, around eleven years. However, the length of the cycle does vary. Between 1700 and the present, the sunspot cycle (from one solar min to the next solar min) has varied in length from as short as nine years to as long as fourteen years. Note, however, that of the 26 solar cycles during that three-century span, 21 had a length between ten and twelve years.

Arriving at a precise count of sunspots is not as straightforward as it might appear. Some spots are much larger than others, some sunspots partially merge together at their edges, and many spots appear in groups. In 1848 a Swiss astronomer named Rudolf Wolf devised an algorithm for making consistent counts of sunspots that allows comparisons between data from different observers across the centuries. The sunspot count derived using Wolf's formula, now known as the Wolf sunspot number, is still in use today. Wolf used data from earlier astronomers to reconstruct sunspot counts as far back as the 1755-1766 cycle, which he dubbed "cycle 1". Since then, subsequent cycles have been numbered consecutively, so the cycle that began with the 2008 solar minimum is cycle 24.

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13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Tell you what, with sea level rise happening, these ugly high dew points and droughts and wild fires in the West, I would seriously consider more efficient desalinization machines being built so we can use the water from the oceans.  It would be a muscular move to solve multiple problems at once- if we were able to use enough ocean water at a high enough rate we could solve our drought problems and negate sea level rise at the same time.  The question is how long it will be when we have machines powerful enough to desalinate water from the oceans and use it and take it out fast enough to negate sea level rise.

You'd need to remove tens of billions of gallons... Ultimately any water we use on land will eventually make its way to the ocean so there would be no effect on sea levels. 

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I wonder how the Euro seasonal was able to do so well with a summer 500mb forecast for North America issued on May 1st? It turned out to be a battle between the WAR and the ridge over Western North America. People would really take notice if the Euro ever did this well with a winter forecast.

13504707-AFEC-488A-B582-0562276B3E56.thumb.png.46fc3b9579861d418a28781c158e128d.png

8C7E5404-8CA2-4551-AE23-B0CAE24DB9AE.gif.9fa84f1d9eed27e2b8105b1e2e3d1482.gif

 

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

87/68 here. Once the winds pick up, the higher dew points to our south and west will work in. Thursday into Friday looks like the highest dew points ahead of the front.

It already hit 90 here at noon and is approaching 91 here now.

But Thursday and Friday wont be as hot as these two days because the wind will come off the waters.

This is very likely the last heatwave of the year (September starts next Wednesday), although we'll very likely get at least 1 90 degree high in September, even out here, and an outside shot at 2, but a heatwave in September is extremely unlikely here.

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I wonder how the Euro seasonal was able to do so well with a summer 500mb forecast for North America issued on May 1st? It turned out to be a battle between the WAR and the ridge over Western North America. People would really take notice if the Euro ever did this well with a winter forecast.

13504707-AFEC-488A-B582-0562276B3E56.thumb.png.46fc3b9579861d418a28781c158e128d.png

8C7E5404-8CA2-4551-AE23-B0CAE24DB9AE.gif.9fa84f1d9eed27e2b8105b1e2e3d1482.gif

 

WAR isn't really a heat pump, it's more of a humidity pump.  Our truly hot summers come with a downsloping flow from the west which brings in true unadulterated pure heat.  Haven't had that in almost a decade.

 

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23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

WAR isn't really a heat pump, it's more of a humidity pump.  Our truly hot summers come with a downsloping flow from the west which brings in true unadulterated pure heat.  Haven't had that in almost a decade.

 

You are pretty much just talking about the immediate shore areas. We have had one top 10 hottest summer after another for the last 10 years. Outside of places like JFK, a SW flow can be very hot also. But JFK has been leading the area in highest dew points since the record humidity increase in 2016. So the the higher heat indices at a place like JFK can make it feel as hot without all the 90° days like a westerly flow summer has at the South Shore.

64CDE571-F7E3-4F4B-91C2-FE0266FD2B0F.thumb.jpeg.8326e4460f8b4b99d523fc0b65fe390d.jpeg


C514FA93-89A8-4769-A714-2385F8213BDA.thumb.jpeg.e0cc92ec97614084c13b918f59f1500c.jpeg

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Firstly, the GFSx has the T at just 80 tops---on Sat/Sun. with a strong E/SE wind.

 KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   8/25/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      THU 26| FRI 27| SAT 28| SUN 29| MON 30| TUE 31| WED 01|THU CLIMO
 N/X  76  93| 76  91| 69  72| 66  82| 71  82| 72  88| 66  77| 63 64 80
 TMP  78  85| 79  82| 72  66| 68  75| 73  77| 75  79| 68  70| 65      
 DPT  69  69| 71  71| 67  66| 67  69| 69  67| 67  61| 58  59| 57      
 CLD  CL  PC| CL  PC| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| PC  PC| PC  OV| OV      
 WND   2   2|  2   2|  9  11|  7   5|  3   4|  2   4|  4   9|  7      
 P12   1   2| 12  34| 72  72| 40  23| 47  42| 26  18| 28  36| 33999999
 P24       2|     42|     82|     40|     62|     34|     50|      999
 Q12   0   0|  0   0|  4   4|  1   0|  1   2|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      0|      5|      0|      3|      0|       |         
 T12   0  15| 10  32| 34  22|  5  12| 19  28| 14  11| 11  11|  6      
 T24        | 18    | 58    | 23    | 32    | 36    | 18    | 17      

 

Here is the potential IDA after going from 1000mb to the 968mb shown---in 48 hours.       The GFS from which this model gets its initiation, has kicked this storm's track around for two days.       At any rate, looks like a late developer and then really goes nowhere when inland.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2021082512-invest99l/slp42.png

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