August 2021

[bluewave]

It wouldn’t be a surprise if we find a way to pick up more measurable rainfall this weekend. There were only two weekends since the Memorial Day weekend with no rainfall. So my guess this is probably a new record for the summer season.
 

NYC weekends 

May 29-30     1.35

Jun 5-6           dry

Jun 12-13.      .01

Jun 19-20       .14

Jun 26-27       .04

Jul 3-4             .34

Jul 10-11          .28

Jul 17-18          .65

Jul 24-25         .45

Jul 31-Aug 1     .04

Aug 7-8             .21

Aug 14-15          dry

Aug 21-22          7.12

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

After record warmth in June and a pullback of the heat in a July, the heat is coming on strong in August. Even Long Island is seeing impressive heat for August. This is only the 8th August at Islip to reach 5 days of 90°.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
	1980	8	0
	2016	7	0
-	2005	7	0
	1995	6	0
	2021	5	6
-	2018	5	0
-	2006	5	0
-	2002	5	0

 

thank goodness we got rid of that yucky sea breeze that raises the humidity

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

Hit 90 and 92 back at home the past two days, looks like a fun little heat wave im missing out on. Not even that humid either, dewpoints were only in the 60s

This is the way heat SHOULD be

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

After record warmth in June and a pullback of the heat in a July, the heat is coming on strong in August. Even Long Island is seeing impressive heat for August. This is only the 8th August at Islip to reach 5 days of 90°.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
	1980	8	0
	2016	7	0
-	2005	7	0
	1995	6	0
	2021	5	6
-	2018	5	0
-	2006	5	0
-	2002	5	0

 

WOW 1980 really rocked lol.  I'm sure JFK was just as hot.

 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

thank goodness we got rid of that yucky sea breeze that raises the humidity

 

Tomorrow will be the 50th day this year with a 70° dew point. We have never had 6 consecutive years with 50 days before. So the consistently high dew points are a big part of our new subtropical climate.

 

[Rtd208]

Current temp 92/DP 74/RH 56%

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 92 here, DP 69, RH 50%

[gpsnavigator]

These dewpoints are getting annoying and uncomfortable.  Between the bugs, mold, mildew, and mushrooms growing in my garden, I'm ready for way cooler and drier days.  

Maybe September?

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said:

These dewpoints are getting annoying and uncomfortable.  Between the bugs, mold, mildew, and mushrooms growing in my garden, I'm ready for way cooler and drier days.  

Maybe September?

If we believe the gfs september starts off rainy and cool followed by dry pleasant weather thru labor day weekend

[weathermedic]

90/77 at my station (high so far of 91)

CP at 1pm is 87. Every other surrounding station is 90 or above except JFK with a SW wind.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Tomorrow will be the 50th day this year with a 70° dew point. We have never had 6 consecutive years with 50 days before. So the consistently high dew points are a big part of our new subtropical climate.

 

Which is exactly why we need to start on some geoengineering projects to lower sea levels and use up that excess ocean water.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

90/77 at my station (high so far of 91)

CP at 1pm is 87. Every other surrounding station is 90 or above except JFK with a SW wind.

JFK has corrupted data because it's right on the Bay.  We have already reached 92 here in SW Nassau by noon.  I'm 4 miles due east of JFK.

 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

JFK has corrupted data because it's right on the Bay.  We have already reached 92 here in SW Nassau by noon.  I'm 4 miles due east of JFK.

 

Just because it gets a sea breeze first, doesn’t mean there are any problems with the temperatures. Wantagh is currently 87/74 with a very humid sea breeze. Farmingdale a little further from the shore is 90/71.

[jm1220]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just because it gets a sea breeze first, doesn’t mean there are any problems with the temperatures. Wantagh is currently 87/74 with a very humid sea breeze. Farmingdale a little further from the shore is 90/71.

We’re at the time of year where the seabreeze doesn’t make the conditions cooler. The temp goes down but humidity goes up. 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We’re at the time of year where the seabreeze doesn’t make the conditions cooler. The temp goes down but humidity goes up. 

The SSTs are peaking  later this year than recent summers. Notice the upper 70s ocean temperatures now from the Jersey Shore to the LI South Shore. 
 

STATION/POSITION TIME  SKY/WX   TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                                AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC)          (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
NY Harb Entrance 1650               77  170/  8/ 10 1019.3          2/ 6
20 S Fire Island 1650               75              1019.7          2/ 6
Great South Bay  1630            80 81  220/  8/ 10   N/A
23 SSW Montauk P 1650            74 72  240/  6/  8 1019.8          2/ 6
15 E Barnegat Li 1656               78                N/A           2/13
Hudson Canyon    1650            78 78  230/  8/ 10 1020.8          2/12

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

If we believe the gfs september starts off rainy and cool followed by dry pleasant weather thru labor day weekend

The cool down looks legit given the coming pattern. Very strong blocking pattern likely.

Gfs has two shots of cool air on the heels of tropical system remnants from the gulf. 

So we will see relief soon.

[bluewave]

100° heat index on the South Shore with a 77° dew point.

 

Wantagh 88  77 HX 100          

[Poker2015]

99.5 degrees...can we crack 100 again?

[CIK62]

[CIK62]

Which is Which here:

[LoboLeader1]

92 here, feels like 98*

[Poker2015]

49 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

99.5 degrees...can we crack 100 again?

100 degrees exactly!!

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Very strong blocking pattern likely.

 

[doncat]

Damn was just going out to mow the lawn and a shower popped up right over me....had a quick 0.18"....dropped temp to 79° after high of 93°.

[Dan76]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

[doncat]

Nice little t storm popped up after first shower dissipated...0.50" so far.

[SI Mailman]

Nice little t storm popped up after first shower dissipated...0.50" so far.

Just got inside from work as the first few drops hit.

[doncat]

5 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

18 minutes ago, doncat said:

Nice little t storm popped up after first shower dissipated...0.50" so far.

Just got inside from work as the first few drops hit.

Had 0.87" on West shore.

[donsutherland1]

One more hot day lies ahead. Afterward, a front will move slowly through the region and it could stall nearby. The result will be cooler weather with potential showers and thundershowers during the weekend.

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Ida has now developed. Ida will pose a threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast early next week. Some of the guidance has it making landfall as a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane. Through 7 pm CDT, New Orleans has received 65.74" of rain. That is the 2nd highest figure on record for this time of year. As a result, the already saturated ground could exacerbate the risk of flooding from Ida.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around August 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.41°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. Afterward, La Niña could begin to develop.

The SOI was +5.83 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.640 today.

On August 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.489 (RMM). The August 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.553 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.4° (1.4° above normal).

 

[SACRUS]

8/26

EWR: 97
LGA: 94
TEB: 94
BLM: 93
New Brnswck: 93
PHL: 93
TTN: 92
ISP: 92
NYC: 91
ACY: 90
JFK: 89