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August 2021


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A front will move slowly through the region and it could stall nearby tonight and tomorrow. The result will be cooler weather with potential showers and thundershowers tonight and tomorrow. Drier air could arrive for Sunday.

Looking farther ahead, September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures overall.

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Ida has now developed. Ida will pose a threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday. Some of the guidance has it making landfall as a Category 3 or Category 4 hurricane. Through 7 pm CDT, New Orleans has received 65.74" of rain. That is the 2nd highest figure on record for this time of year. As a result, the already saturated ground could exacerbate the risk of flooding from Ida.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around August 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.41°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. Afterward, La Niña could begin to develop.

The SOI was +5.95 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.572 today.

On August 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.760 (RMM). The August 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.478 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.6° (1.6° above normal).

 

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Currently the 2nd wettest summer in NYC. 3rd wettest and 4th warmest at Newark. So extremes of warm and wet in our more subtropical climate.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2011 25.23 0
2 2021 24.03 4
3 1975 22.40 0
4 1989 22.36 0
5 2009 21.38 0
6 2006 20.79 0
7 2007 20.62 0
8 1928 20.50 0
9 1903 20.43 0
10 1927 20.01 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1993 79.2 0
2 2010 78.7 0
3 1994 78.5 0
4 2021 78.4 4
5 2011 78.0 0
6 2005 77.8 0
7 1988 77.7 0
8 2020 77.6 0
- 2016 77.6 0
- 1973 77.6 0
9 1999 77.1 0
10 1995 77.0

0

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2011 23.57 0
2 2003 21.30 0
3 2021 20.46 4
4 2007 19.27 0
5 1971 19.09 0
6 1975 18.78 0
7 2019 18.76 0
8 2009 18.70 0
9 1942 17.71 0
10 1989 17.67 0
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The last 4 days of August are averaging 79degs.(73/85), or +8.

IDA remnants give 3" to 5" on Wed./Thurs.    But CMC goes south of us with little rain.

Month to date is  77.8[+1.4].      August would end at 78.0[+2.0], but more likely at 77.5.

Was 81* at Midnite.   75*(93%RH) here at 6am, overcast, streets wet.      73*, rain at 7am.       Down to 69* at 6pm!

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Morning thoughts…

At 7:15 am, rain was continuing to fall in parts of Suffolk County. Flash flooding was reported at Nesconset (1 SE), Saint James (1 S), and Saint James (1 SSE). Islip had also picked up 1.20” of rain in a one-hour period.

Today will be mostly cloudy, breezy, and noticeably cooler. Showers and periods of rain are likely. Some areas of heavy rain are possible in parts of the region this morning. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 75°

Newark: 78°

Philadelphia: 79°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 81.7°; 15-Year: 81.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 83.1°; 15-Year: 83.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.3°; 15-Year: 83.9°

Late tomorrow, Hurricane Ida will likely make landfall along the Louisiana coast as a strong Category 4 hurricane. Some of its rains could affect the Middle Atlantic region during the middle of next week. 

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15 hours ago, uncle W said:

if you like snow and want to at least double you totals from living in the city move to the Dingmans Ferry area and northward...the biggest snowstorm I've seen was the March 2017 storm up there...and it was two days after the storm...March 2018 saw another big event and wind event on top...Childs Park in Dingmans Ferry is still closed because of the damage done in 2018...Last February had another 2 footer...three two foot storms in five years...

Yep, March ‘18 did a lot of damage over that way, I know a guy that lost several trees in that storm, none hit his house fortunately but one came very close. 

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72/69 and mostly cloudy, 0.29 in the bucket from storms Fri pm and overnight (missed to the south).  Cloudy and humid weekend.  Mon (8/30) / Tue (8/31) warmer and with enough sun a few 90s possible and perhaps getting Newark to 40 90 (+) days. 

 

Beyond that Wed (9/1) / Thu (9/2) Ida remnants come east and models shift heavier rains into the region now.  Ida's remains clear the area in time for the long weekend and we hover near / above normal with warming by the first week of September.

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Monday may be the best chance for Newark to reach 40 days of 90° temperatures before the cooldown.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
  2010 54 0
  1993 49 0
  1988 43 0
  2002 41 0
- 1991 41 0
  2016 40 0
- 1983 40 0
- 1959 40 0
  2021 39 126
- 1994 39 0
- 1944 39 0


7D526D6B-9FA2-4FE6-80C3-B872BC56C615.thumb.gif.9c25b0a44103f87e76d1077a041e453a.gif

 

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39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Monday may be the best chance for Newark to reach 40 days of 90° temperatures before the cooldown.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
  2010 54 0
  1993 49 0
  1988 43 0
  2002 41 0
- 1991 41 0
  2016 40 0
- 1983 40 0
- 1959 40 0
  2021 39 126
- 1994 39 0
- 1944 39 0


7D526D6B-9FA2-4FE6-80C3-B872BC56C615.thumb.gif.9c25b0a44103f87e76d1077a041e453a.gif

 

Next chance for sure but think several more lie ahead in September as soon as the first week 9/7

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13 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Next chance for sure but think several more lie ahead in September as soon as the first week 9/7

Last year Newark had its last 90° in August. But that was the exception rather than the rule since 2010. Most years we have had 90° days after September 1st.
 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
Minimum 04-07 (2010) 08-08 (2011) 69
Mean 05-22 09-10 110
Maximum 06-17 (2014) 10-02 (2019) 170
2020 06-06 (2020) 91 08-27 (2020) 93 81
2019 05-26 (2019) 90 10-02 (2019) 96 128
2018 05-02 (2018) 90 09-06 (2018) 98 126
2017 05-17 (2017) 92 09-25 (2017) 90 130
2016 05-25 (2016) 91 09-23 (2016) 90 120
2015 05-25 (2015) 90 09-09 (2015) 91 106
2014 06-17 (2014) 91 09-06 (2014) 95 80
2013 05-30 (2013) 93 09-11 (2013) 96 103
2012 05-28 (2012) 91 09-07 (2012) 90 101
2011 05-30 (2011) 92 08-08 (2011) 93 69
2010 04-07 (2010) 92 09-25 (2010) 90 170
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23 minutes ago, doncat said:

0.18" overnight...inching my way to 10" for month at 9.83" now.

I missed so many storms this summer until last night...at one point into the storm I thought for a second there was going to be a rain swept tornado but nothing major did happen except for the rain and lightning......

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16 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I missed so many storms this summer until last night...at one point into the storm I thought for a second there was going to be a rain swept tornado but nothing major did happen except for the rain and lightning......

You went a long way to catching up yesterday though...I checked a couple stations around you and they're showing 8+" now for month.

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