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June 2021


Stormlover74
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

More ridiculous amplitude on the 12z Euro. All-time June monthly highs challenged in the PAC NW this weekend as 500 mb heights go 597dm+. Then the WAR flexes early next week to 594 to 597dm. The WAR  builds into the Canadian Maritimes and we  get into a humid SE to S flow. So the +20c 850 mb temperatures go to our north. Similar to what we have been experiencing in recent summers. Dry westerly flow heat has been tough to come by with patterns like this.

9BC2F6F9-F593-476D-9621-21F6D32DE699.thumb.png.8a93941ddbc2f02aafc1f8b125effdbf.png

Yep, it looks like a high DP/Humidity summer for the NYC metro with the hottest temps staying to our north and also west as you mentioned at least for now. So far this month I have had 8 days with temps reaching between 90-95 here.

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59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has low 90s for us and mid to upper 90s in Maine.

 

E547CC97-5EFA-48C0-8D1B-B9293C618F40.thumb.png.94dc7c2c979bde8c7e410200f977918c.png
026D2142-CBE0-4F4A-958E-638988169A05.thumb.png.155efb8265b0a074a86bd5795f1c10da.png

 

Crazy how frequent these overshooting heat events are getting. Lots of 88/74 type days ( where I am) coming with that ridge. The ridge seems to flatten by the end of the run so maybe the strongest heat shifts south by then. 

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NYC has not had a temperature below 60 in July and August since 2013...since 1991 its happened 17 times...only 12 times from 1870 to 1990...the longest streak of no 50's was during the cool summer of 1996...

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 60
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2021-06-21
1 102 1996-09-13
2 94 2016-09-16
3 93 1966-09-14
4 91 2010-09-10
5 90 2020-09-13
6 89 2014-09-12
- 89 1993-09-10
8 88 2018-09-08
9 83 2019-09-05
- 83 2017-08-31
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Tomorrow and Thursday should feature abundant sunshine, low humidity, and refreshing temperatures. The end of the week and coming weekend will turn warmer. No excessive precipitation appears likely through the weekend.

In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme to possibly historic heatwave could develop starting late this week. Monthly and possibly all-time record high temperatures in cities, including Seattle and Portland, could be challenged or broken.

Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm.

In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 73% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature above 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +1.05 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.182 today.

On June 20 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.736 (RMM). The June 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.800 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.6° (1.6° above normal).

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has low 90s for us and mid to upper 90s in Maine.

 

E547CC97-5EFA-48C0-8D1B-B9293C618F40.thumb.png.94dc7c2c979bde8c7e410200f977918c.png
026D2142-CBE0-4F4A-958E-638988169A05.thumb.png.155efb8265b0a074a86bd5795f1c10da.png

 

Are we sure we are not getting this confused with the worthless  GFS.          The EURO has no 90's for NYC>

1624384800-AYhLbXf8Hhs.png

 

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The last 8 days of June are averaging 77degs.(68/85), or +1.0.

Month to date is  73.1[+2.2].       June should end near  73.6[+1.6].

July Fourth WE again looking like a rainout.

56*(75%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.         67* by Noon.

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