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WAR retrograde signal showing up. a little early for these events

ecmwf-ens_z500a_atl_fh120-240.gif

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The ridge is forecast to be so strong, that the warmest temperatures initially go to the north of the area. We saw this quite a bit during recent summers. Looks like like a higher dewpoint southerly flow regime for us. Our warmest temperatures will probably arrive when some of the heat directed to north drops south over the ridge.

DB599E5B-2345-4296-95CE-B6E55EB45627.thumb.png.b4964bf369b191a7c9383e4df646297c.png

 

 

 

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12 hours ago, bluewave said:

The ridge is forecast to be so strong, that the warmest temperatures initially go to the north of the area. We saw this quite a bit during recent summers. Looks like like a higher dewpoint southerly flow regime for us. Our warmest temperatures will probably arrive when some of the heat directed to north drops south over the ridge.

DB599E5B-2345-4296-95CE-B6E55EB45627.thumb.png.b4964bf369b191a7c9383e4df646297c.png

 

 

 

When do you think our highest temps will be, Chris?  It looks like it starts to cool down again around the 12th?

 

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The last day of May will average 60degs.(48/72), or -7.0.

Month to date is  63.0[-0.1].        May will end at 62.9[-0.3].

Fri./Sat./Sun still could be a cloudy/rainout at 80 degrees, instead of 50.

The first half of June is averaging 79degs.!(69/89), or +8.0.   This is about +5sd, or more.      Anyone know what the longest HW{90+} in June is?      We seem headed for 7 days +.

50*(93%RH) here at 6am., overcast with some breaks.   (was 49* at 3am).        54* by 9am.       56* at 10am.        58* by Noon.        60* by 1:30pm         70* by 6pm.       74* at 6:30pm.            61* by 9pm.

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

The last day of May will average 60degs.(48/72), or -7.0.

Month to date is  63.0[-0.1].        May will end at 62.9[-0.3].

Fri./Sat./Sun still could be a cloudy/rainout at 80 degrees, instead of 50.

The first half of June is averaging 79degs.!(69/89), or +8.0.   This is about +5sd, or more.      Anyone know what the longest HW{90+} in June is?      We seem headed for 7 days +.

50*(93%RH) here at 6am., overcast with some breaks.   (was 49* at 3am).

Central Park: 5 consecutive days

Newark: 7 consecutive days

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Central Park: 5 consecutive days

Newark: 7 consecutive days

Thank You.

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Not pretending to know the influences, but per NAEFS,  and general pattern... looks like potential for more than the normal 90+ for the NYC metro area in June, beginning after June 5. 

June CP norms 90 or greater from what I see, (3) and max 90 or greater (11).  So I could easily be wrong and seeing too warm. Also if needed correct me on CP stats, thanks!

Plenty more rain for parts of the subforum Wed-weekend, then turn on the bigger warmth. 


 

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Not pretending to know the influences, but per NAEFS,  and general pattern... looks like potential for more than the normal 90+ for the NYC metro area in June, beginning after June 5. 
June CP norms 90 or greater from what I see, (3) and max 90 or greater (11).  So I could easily be wrong and seeing too warm. Also if needed correct me on CP stats, thanks!
Plenty more rain for parts of the subforum Wed-weekend, then turn on the bigger warmth. 

 
Please.... Not another rainy weekend

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

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31 minutes ago, tek1972 said:

Please.... Not another rainy weekend emoji853.png

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
 

It's 6 days off...  we know intermittent action late Wed-Fri.  After that?  Modeling still has some troubles D5 and beyond on timing. Terrible miss for this past Sunday as late as Tuesday 's modeling, tho we probably all knew Sunday might not be a decent day due to trough aloft.   Took a while for modeling to coalesce on the Sunday event. It was ~ 12z/26 when modeling drifted toward the second event, originally heralded by the GGEM  Not sure if anyone checks the GGEM...  need that on board with the EC/GFS to be personally assured of an event.

Drought monitor will probably adjust next issuance.

 

HPRCC may have some updated #s this afternoon or Tuesday. What happened this weekend was overall for the betterment of our lives, as dismal as it was.  Am confident next weekend won't repeat that cold.Later,

Walt

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39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

June 1999 and 1994 analogs showing up on the day 8 analog 500mb composite. So near record heat may be in play. Newark made it to 99 in June 1999 and 101 in June 1994. Newark reached 96 back on May 22nd. That was also a 590+ dm ridge like the models are indicating for next week.
 

BBA35168-BFEF-402A-BFBE-7EA627D9F7C0.gif.75765b4bf3eaeeaba66b976c6ebc1861.gif

6/7 99 in 1999 97 in 2008 95 in 1984
6/8 99 in 2011 97 in 1999 97 in 1984
6/9 102 in 2011 99 in 2008 99 in 1933
6/10 99 in 2008 98 in 1974 96 in 1984
6/11 96 in 2000 96 in 1984 95 in 1973
6/12 97 in 2017 95 in 1973 94 in 1949
6/13 99 in 2017 98 in 1961 96 in 1984
6/14 99 in 1988 99 in 1956 98 in 1994
6/15 101 in 1994 99 in 1988 99 in 1945

1953 held many of the region’s record low maximum temperatures that were toppled yesterday.

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Still think there may be a weakness in the ridge and pseudo cut off can bring onshore and clouds Jun 5 - 8 ish, otherwise much warmer overall into mid June is looking liekly.

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

June 1999 and 1994 analogs showing up on the day 8 analog 500mb composite. So near record heat may be in play. Newark made it to 99 in June 1999 and 101 in June 1994. Newark reached 96 back on May 22nd. That was also a 590+ dm ridge like the models are indicating for next week.
 

BBA35168-BFEF-402A-BFBE-7EA627D9F7C0.gif.75765b4bf3eaeeaba66b976c6ebc1861.gif

6/7 99 in 1999 97 in 2008 95 in 1984
6/8 99 in 2011 97 in 1999 97 in 1984
6/9 102 in 2011 99 in 2008 99 in 1933
6/10 99 in 2008 98 in 1974 96 in 1984
6/11 96 in 2000 96 in 1984 95 in 1973
6/12 97 in 2017 95 in 1973 94 in 1949
6/13 99 in 2017 98 in 1961 96 in 1984
6/14 99 in 1988 99 in 1956 98 in 1994
6/15 101 in 1994 99 in 1988 99 in 1945

also 2011 which is the record for earliest 100+

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Clouds gave way to sunshine and temperatures rebounded into the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region today. Before then, for the third consecutive day, New York City's LaGuardia Airport tied its daily record low temperature. This morning's minimum temperature was 50°. That tied the record that was set in 1947 and tied in 1967.

New York City finished with a May mean temperature of 62.9°. That was 0.3° below the 1991-2020 normal but 0.5° above the prior 1981-2010 normal.

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and milder. It will likely become much warmer during the coming weekend. Hot weather could arrive by early next week.

The first 7-10 days of June could start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through at least the first 10 days of June.

Overall, June looks to be warmer than normal. The Northeast will likely see temperatures average 1.5° above normal to 3.5° above normal.

Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was -10.63 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.559 today.

On May 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.698 (RMM). The May 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.366 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

June 1999 and 1994 analogs showing up on the day 8 analog 500mb composite. So near record heat may be in play. Newark made it to 99 in June 1999 and 101 in June 1994. Newark reached 96 back on May 22nd. That was also a 590+ dm ridge like the models are indicating for next week.
 

BBA35168-BFEF-402A-BFBE-7EA627D9F7C0.gif.75765b4bf3eaeeaba66b976c6ebc1861.gif

6/7 99 in 1999 97 in 2008 95 in 1984
6/8 99 in 2011 97 in 1999 97 in 1984
6/9 102 in 2011 99 in 2008 99 in 1933
6/10 99 in 2008 98 in 1974 96 in 1984
6/11 96 in 2000 96 in 1984 95 in 1973
6/12 97 in 2017 95 in 1973 94 in 1949
6/13 99 in 2017 98 in 1961 96 in 1984
6/14 99 in 1988 99 in 1956 98 in 1994
6/15 101 in 1994 99 in 1988 99 in 1945

1999 would be amazing if the analog rolled forward to July....1994 not so much.  Wasn't 1994 the year where we had an early summer but the heat peaked early and we cooled down for July?  But there was a vast difference between NYC and Philly, and Philly was almost as hot as they were in 1993?  I'm curious, why can't we use 1991 and/or 1993 as analogs, those were two of my favorite summers.  1991 and 1993 were both two of our hottest.

Also what about 2011?  I see that in the list too.  I only remember the amazing heat in late July, but it looks like June was extremely hot too.  August was extremely rainy though so not the ideal summer.

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, June 2011 had the heat surge that originated over the record Southern Plains drought. The source region for next weeks heat is the record drought over the West to the Dakotas. So it will be interesting to see if somebody in the region can sneak in an early 100° next week. But we have had much more rainfall recently than the other June 100° years. A 590 dm + ridge should eventually allow the flow to turn more westerly. So the 18-20c 850 mb temperatures would support at least mid to upper 90s.

D07D1CF5-2E7F-4E40-A2D7-AAA1447E8CEB.thumb.png.0007dd73df972d4d92725aad11850f7f.png

 

I was thinking 2011 also, and remember what happened late in July in 2011 ;)

When do you think the heat will peak over our area?  Before or after the 12th?

 

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21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Didnt we also hit 100 in June 1953, Don?

 

Middle and upper 90s in June. 100-degree readings in July and August.

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June's longest heat waves...most total 90 degree days...

6/24-28/1880...

max...min...

93......66

94......77

91......77

92......73

94......76

………………...

6/26-30/1901

91......72

91......74

93......75

95......76

95......60

……………………….

6/3-7/1925

94......68

99......76

99......78

98......77

96......63

…………………….

6/14-18/1945

92......68

93......76

93......71

93......74

92......71

……………….

6/15-19/1957

93......69

95......76

96......77

93......76

92......73

…………………..

6/24-28/1963

90......65

95......68

96......69

95......72

94......73

…………………..

6/7-11/1984

92......72

94......77

96......77

95......79

94......78

………………….

6/12-16/1988

90......61

93......69

96......71

96......74

92......69

………………..

most 90 degree days...

11 in 1943

10 in 1966

09 in 1925

09 in 1991

08 in 1923

08 in 1945

08 in 1953

08 in 1988

07 in 1899

07 in 1941

07 in 1949

07 in 1964

07 in 1994

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9 minutes ago, uncle W said:

June's longest heat waves...most total 90 degree days...

6/24-28/1880...

max...min...

93......66

94......77

91......77

92......73

94......76

………………...

6/26-30/1901

91......72

91......74

93......75

95......76

95......60

……………………….

6/3-7/1925

94......68

99......76

99......78

98......77

96......63

…………………….

6/14-18/1945

92......68

93......76

93......71

93......74

92......71

……………….

6/15-19/1957

93......69

95......76

96......77

93......76

92......73

…………………..

6/24-28/1963

90......65

95......68

96......69

95......72

94......73

…………………..

6/7-11/1984

92......72

94......77

96......77

95......79

94......78

………………….

6/12-16/1988

90......61

93......69

96......71

96......74

92......69

………………..

most 90 degree days...

11 in 1943

10 in 1966

09 in 1925

09 in 1991

08 in 1923

08 in 1945

08 in 1953

08 in 1988

07 in 1899

07 in 1941

07 in 1949

07 in 1964

07 in 1994

How come the June heatwave of 1966 isn't in this list?  I think that was the only time JFK hit 100 in June (once) and three more times in July!

The above June heatwaves look pretty good, but compare them to the heatwaves we had in April of 1976 and 2002 and they're not much better than that (except the one from 1925 which had multiple days near 100)....

 

 

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18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How come the June heatwave of 1966 isn't in this list?  I think that was the only time JFK hit 100 in June (once) and three more times in July!

The above June heatwaves look pretty good, but compare them to the heatwaves we had in April of 1976 and 2002 and they're not much better than that (except the one from 1925 which had multiple days near 100)....

 

 

1966 had a 3-day heatwave and a 4-day heatwave in June.

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May ended at 62.9[-0.3].

The first 8 days of June are averaging 77degs.(67/87), or +7.0.

Rain may not affect the weekend now, just Thurs/Fri.       String of 90's{7 days} centered on June 8th, 9th still showing.

59*(72%RH) here at 6am, thin overcast.         69* by Noon.           Reached 73* at 2pm.          65* at 8pm.

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10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I was thinking 2011 also, and remember what happened late in July in 2011 ;)

When do you think the heat will peak over our area?  Before or after the 12th?

 

It will depend on the strength and location of the ridge axis. Temperatures usually top out in the low to mid 90s this time of year if the flow is too onshore. W to NW flow is needed to reach the upper 90s. Plus we have rain coming in again in a few days on top of the heavy rains we just experienced. So the previous Junes that made it to 100 were much drier. You can see the current Euro with more onshore flow. So the warmest highs go to our north like we have seen in recent years. Models usually need to get within 120 hrs to know the correct wind direction.

BBA29593-B88C-436F-B5E2-A9B56A152F11.thumb.png.3cb448010d678d3482183206224167b2.png

 

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Good morning all, it’s 59 degrees with that muggy feeling, I can’t wait for some real heat hopefully it doesn’t get too humid. I’m originally from Europe and the weather here during the winter is much colder and much more humid during the summer still never really get used to it. I’m looking to move when I retire in a few years to Lake Tahoe 

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Morning thoughts...

Today will be variably cloudy and mild. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and even lower 80s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include:

New York City (Central Park): 77°
Newark: 80°
Philadelphia: 78°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and mild.

30-Day Verification:

New York City (Central Park):
Average daily forecast: 72.0°
Average temperature: 72.1°
Average error: 1.5°

Newark:
Average daily forecast: 74.5°
Average temperature: 74.8°
Average error: 1.5°

Philadelphia:
Average daily forecast: 74.6°
Average temperature: 74.2°
Average error: 1.3°

 

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36 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

Good morning all, it’s 59 degrees with that muggy feeling, I can’t wait for some real heat hopefully it doesn’t get too humid. I’m originally from Europe and the weather here during the winter is much colder and much more humid during the summer still never really get used to it. I’m looking to move when I retire in a few years to Lake Tahoe 

And a good morning to you RE. If you haven’t really gotten used to the winter cold in this area are you sure Lake Tahoe is where you want to retire? Although dry in the warm season, frozen precipitation has been experienced at least 10 out of the 12 months of the  year. To  many, including myself, it is or would have been a dream location. As always ...

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2 hours ago, RippleEffect said:

Good morning all, it’s 59 degrees with that muggy feeling, I can’t wait for some real heat hopefully it doesn’t get too humid. I’m originally from Europe and the weather here during the winter is much colder and much more humid during the summer still never really get used to it. I’m looking to move when I retire in a few years to Lake Tahoe 

I hear Luxembourg is nice.  

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