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June 2021


Stormlover74
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6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That is over my head. Swear a couple of these hit on my block. Very impressive for these parts 

I was on the verge of being clipped by the southern edge of it, and then that part fizzled out lol. Still had some decent thunder and lightning out of it at least.

0.06” here, all light rain.

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4 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I was on the verge of being clipped by the southern edge of it, and then that part fizzled out lol. Still had some decent thunder and lightning out of it at least.

0.06” here, all light rain.

StormanLI can attest to the rainfall totals, I’m guessing 0.60-0.75”, street is flooded as is the yard. The little storm just sat right over commack and Dix hills and dumped. 

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Extreme heat again covered parts of the Northern Plains into southern Canada. Daily records included:

Bismarck: 106° (old record: 95°, 1988) ***hottest so early in the season***
Fargo: 102° (old record: 95°, 1959)
Grand Forks, ND: 103° (old record: 96°, 1961)
Gretna, MB: 103° (old record: 94°, 1961)***new all-time record***
International Falls: 98° (old record: 92°, 1988) ***hottest so early in the seaon; tied June record***
Minneapolis: 97° (old record: 96°, 1968)
Minot, ND: 105° (old record: 95°, 1988) ***new June record***
Winnipeg: 97° (old record: 96°, 1988)

Death Valley also reached 121°, which broke the daily record of 120° set in 1996 and tied in 2003. This was also the second consecutive day on which the temperature reached at least 120° at Death Valley. Only 2000 and 2003 saw such streaks prior to June 5.

The hot air that has been setting records in the Northern Plains region will move eastward in coming days. A piece of that hot air will reach the Middle Atlantic and New England areas.

Hot weather will likely arrive beginning tomorrow. The most intense heat will likely last into the middle of next week before a cooling trend commences.

The first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through the first half of June.

The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range.

Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was -14.13 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.390 today.

On June 2 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.058 (RMM). The June 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.088 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

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