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June 2021


Stormlover74
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Early June temperature departure pattern following where the wettest and driest conditions have been during the spring. Warmest departures over the dry Northern Tier which has been experiencing drought. Cooler temperature anomalies to the south with the record rains in Texas.


C70EDACC-C2A4-4CE8-8A50-C506EC8B8B76.thumb.jpeg.62c0b3571167c6c3ce15ae8aa92b7ae0.jpeg

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Early June temperature departure pattern following where the wettest and driest conditions have been during the spring. Warmest departures over the dry Northern Tier which has been experiencing drought. Cooler temperature anomalies to the south with the record rains in Texas.


C70EDACC-C2A4-4CE8-8A50-C506EC8B8B76.thumb.jpeg.62c0b3571167c6c3ce15ae8aa92b7ae0.jpeg

 

 

 

your map will be updated  on thursday after all the rain that fell this weekend

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28 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

your map will be updated  on thursday after all the rain that fell this weekend

Only to remove the D0 abnormally dry conditions in our region. The areas that have been in serious drought across the West to the NorthernTier didn’t get much rain from this system. So we were one of the few lucky spots.

 

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12 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will depend on the strength and location of the ridge axis. Temperatures usually top out in the low to mid 90s this time of year if the flow is too onshore. W to NW flow is needed to reach the upper 90s. Plus we have rain coming in again in a few days on top of the heavy rains we just experienced. So the previous Junes that made it to 100 were much drier. You can see the current Euro with more onshore flow. So the warmest highs go to our north like we have seen in recent years. Models usually need to get within 120 hrs to know the correct wind direction.

BBA29593-B88C-436F-B5E2-A9B56A152F11.thumb.png.3cb448010d678d3482183206224167b2.png

 

The highest temp I ever remember in June for here is 98, even in late June and with a WNW flow.  It's very hard to hit 100 here in June.  But it does prime the ground for what can happen in July, as a lot of those years where we hit upper 90s in June we topped 100 in July.....

If you look up JFK 100 degree summers, more often than not it was 95+ June 20-30 .....

It becomes very difficult to hit 100 again in August, because always seems to be much more humid than July.  I think the last time JFK hit 100 in August was 1983, though not sure about that?  Upper 90s almost seem to be as likely in early September as they are in August.  98 seems to be our peak here in any summer month outside of July (and I consider September to be a summer month now.)

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Only to remove the D0 abnormally dry conditions in our region. The areas that have been in serious drought across the West to the NorthernTier didn’t get much rain from this system. So we were one of the few lucky spots.

 

I think Chicago being so dry is telling and might be more of a reason for us to hit 100 degrees in July than anything we get around here.  It can get to 100 in a hurry here regardless of soil moisture conditions in July if we get the right wind direction (1983 and 2011 are cases in point.) and some of our biggest heatwaves actually come from the Midwest.

 

 

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Look Ma!     Still crazy after all those therapy sessions you paid for----I mean updates.      Most of my girls were Down Dates.  lol     But the chick below looks hot starting Friday!!!   hee hee hee...................    

1622570400-DuahBbSMhy0.png

BUT WAIT.!     COMPARE WITH THIS.      DID MY THERAPY REALLY WORK WONDERS?      20 Degree Deficit here for 2 Weeks straight????????  What did I do wrong Doc?       Gotta contact WB on this.

1622570400-joYsCylZVS0.png

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Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and a bit cooler. Thursday could see showers and thundershowers as warmer air begins to push into the region. It will likely become much warmer during the coming weekend. Hot weather could arrive by early next week.

The first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through the first half of June.

The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range.

Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was -1.34 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.358 today.

On May 30 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.133 (RMM). The May 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.672 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Select June Monthly Records:

New York City:
Highest mean temperature: 76.2°, 1943
Lowest mean temperature: 64.5°, 1903
Most precipitation: 10.26", 2003
Least precipitation: 0.02", 1949

Newark:
Highest mean temperature: 77.8°, 1994
Lowest mean temperature: 67.5°, 1958
Most precipitation: 10.50", 2003
Least precipitation: 0.07", 1949

Philadelphia:
Highest mean temperature: 78.2°, 2010
Lowest mean temperature: 65.8°, 1903
Most precipitation: 10.56", 2013
Least precipitation: 0.11", 1949

 

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19 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

Tone of snow?

Yeah, and really big storms too and triple phaser snowstorms.

Makes New England seem like Atlanta

Anywhere from Moncton, New Brunswick through Halifax, Nova Scotia up to Labrador is good.

Also, nice tropical season so you get the full east coast experience.  Isn't that far from NY either.

 

 

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9 hours ago, RippleEffect said:

Tone of snow?

Not exactly. The chances for big storms are high but overall snowfall isn’t that incredible being coastal and at a latitude not much further north then Portland. They are often on the east rainy side of systems coming up the coast. If you want a snowy location look for elevation or down wind of the Great Lakes. 

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The next 8 days are averaging 78degs.(68/87), or about +8.0.

Rain may mess up T,F and S------then some sort of  hot spell should ensue, which includes multiple 90 degree days for some.

60*(80%RH) here at 6am, thin overcast, blue sky.         63* by 9am.        65* at 10am.       Reached 68*  at 11am.      62 at 9pm.

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On 5/30/2021 at 7:35 PM, LibertyBell said:

When do you think our highest temps will be, Chris?  It looks like it starts to cool down again around the 12th?

 

Looks like the heat will peak sometime in the June 6-12 range. EPS hinting at the next step down in temperatures around mid-June. Notice how volatile the PNA has been since mid-May. Record warmth around May 22nd and record cold during Memorial Day weekend. So we can’t lock any single pattern for more than a week at a time. The high amplitude PNA swings are reminiscent of what occurred with the AO back in February into the spring. It’s as if the wild gyrations were handed off from one index to another. Probably a research topic for someone with an advanced enough computer modeling access. These rapid oscillations have been a common feature in recent years.

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8F35DF80-3E3E-4641-B318-686F8EFA9DB7.thumb.gif.66337a9bf9adefb6044f38bbd3bc1050.gif

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Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and warm. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 75°

Newark: 79°

Philadelphia: 78°

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with showers and thundershowers. A warming trend will commence on Friday and it could turn hot near the end of the weekend or just afterward.

By mid-June, New York City will likely have 5-7 days with a minimum temperature of 70° or above. The 1991-2020 average for June is 5.7 days. During the 1991-2020 period, the least was 0 days in 2009, while the most was 12 days in 2005 and 2010. 12 days is the record, which also occurred in 1943. Since records were first kept in 1869, there were 8 cases during which June saw 10 or more days with minimum temperatures of 70° or above. Four of those cases occurred in 2000 or later.

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Can anyone explain this radical 6 day difference (24 degree average) between the Highs at Central Park and JFK?       Since I am in a coastal area too, I guess I have nothing to fear from this 500mb Height break out.        06Z GFS used.  

June 5     93        69

June 6    94         71    

June 7    95         70

June 8    95         67

June 9    93         68

June 10  90         69

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23 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Can anyone explain this radical 6 day difference (24 degree average) between the Highs at Central Park and JFK?       Since I am in a coastal area too, I guess I have nothing to fear from this 500mb Height break out.        06Z GFS used.  

June 5     93        69

June 6    94         71    

June 7    95         70

June 8    95         67

June 9    93         68

June 10  90         69

I suspect that there’s a programming issue. The meteogram I saw from the 6z GFS had mainly upper 80s in Central Park and lower 80s at JFK. The GEFS shows upper 80s/lower 90s at Central Park and middle 80s at JFK. I suspect that the GEFS is pretty close to what will happen, as the sea breeze should generally kick in during the afternoon in the upcoming pattern.

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day2otlk_1730.gif

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
   MID-ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe storms are possible over a portion of the Middle
   Atlantic Thursday with locally strong to damaging gusts the primary
   threat. Other strong to severe storms with locally strong to
   damaging wind gusts will be possible over a portion of the Tennessee
   and Ohio Valleys as well as eastern Oregon.

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough will move from portions of the Mid-South into the
   Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. A weak frontal boundary will push through
   the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. Ahead of the boundary,
   moisture return is expected to continue through the day into the
   Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. In the Pacific Northwest
   into the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will impact the region
   by late afternoon into the evening.

   ...Mid-Atlantic...
   Widely-scattered to scattered convection is expected to develop both
   ahead of the weak boundary and within areas of pre-frontal
   confluence from northern Virginia into southeastern New York. There
   remain uncertainties as to where the greatest boundary layer
   destabilization will occur given cloud cover within the warm
   conveyor belt as well as warm advection precipitation in North
   Carolina/southern Virginia. Forecast soundings indicate a greater
   potential for cloud breaks from northern Virginia into southeastern
   New York. This area will also see a modest increase in 850 mb flow
   by afternoon/evening which will increase the threat for damaging
   gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado. Father north into eastern New
   York/Vermont, there is less certainty on the degree of
   destabilization, but relatively strong mid-level forcing should
   promote scattered storms with some attendant threat for wind damage.
   Mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, but where greater
   buoyancy develops isolated large hail will be possible.

 

 

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After the rains of the 26th-30th,  I think the Drought monitor will ease a bit toward normal, plus more rain coming Thu-Fri,  it's all helping.

 

So %'s of normal via HPRCC for the past week, month and 6 months are appended.  Place not to be is near the Canadian border, if you want water.

 

SVR

 

Thu-Fri: I think the morning is just gully washers where it does rain, no svr;  Late Thu-Thu eve...decent wind fields,  TT near 50 NYS... and so SPC slight risk looks fine, but am not planning to highlight a topic... as per the recent event that stopped at the NJ coast and also traveled n of POU-DXR.

 

Fri: Less wind aloft but seems pretty unstable and might be a small svr producer?

 

As for heat:  NAEFS suggests ridge aloft may minimize the cool downs (850 not as cool) slated for week 3?  

 

 

Screen Shot 2021-06-02 at 3.10.58 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-06-02 at 3.09.43 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-06-02 at 3.10.32 PM.png

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Tomorrow and Friday will be mainly cloudy with showers and thundershowers as warmer air begins to push toward and then into the region. It will likely become much warmer during the coming weekend. Hot weather could by the end of the weekend.

The first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through the first half of June.

The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range.

Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +9.91 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.537 today.

On May 31 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.071 (RMM). The May 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.141 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

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14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect that there’s a programming issue. The meteogram I saw from the 6z GFS had mainly upper 80s in Central Park and lower 80s at JFK. The GEFS shows upper 80s/lower 90s at Central Park and middle 80s at JFK. I suspect that the GEFS is pretty close to what will happen, as the sea breeze should generally kick in during the afternoon in the upcoming pattern.

oh thats disappointing, so no 90 degrees through this entire stretch at JFK?  This isnt really much of a heatwave then

 

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14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect that there’s a programming issue. The meteogram I saw from the 6z GFS had mainly upper 80s in Central Park and lower 80s at JFK. The GEFS shows upper 80s/lower 90s at Central Park and middle 80s at JFK. I suspect that the GEFS is pretty close to what will happen, as the sea breeze should generally kick in during the afternoon in the upcoming pattern.

I'm telling you right now if the forecast is for 90 at Central Park it will never happen.  The forecast has to be for 92 or higher there for it to actually hit 90.  90 at JFK is more likely, especially if the sea breeze holds off until after 1.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 79degs.(70/88), or about +8.0.

Rain amounts for today and tomorrow way down.        Heat goes till the 12th, at least.

61*(97%RH)Drizzle and fog(<3.0mi){59* at 3am}.       63* at 9am.          75* by 3pm.

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Morning thoughts...

Today will be mostly cloudy and warm. Showers and thundershowers are likely. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe. Heavy rain could occur in places that see round of thunderstorms. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 74°

Newark: 79°

Philadelphia: 80°

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with additional showers and thundershowers. A warming trend will commence and it could turn hot near the end of the weekend or just afterward.

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