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June 2021


Stormlover74
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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm telling you right now if the forecast is for 90 at Central Park it will never happen.  The forecast has to be for 92 or higher there for it to actually hit 90.  90 at JFK is more likely, especially if the sea breeze holds off until after 1.

 

Unfortunately, until there is a desire on the part of Central Park’s conservatory to have accurate temperature record, which would require trimming of the trees, the summer high temperatures there will understate the actual warmth. Trees are trimmed on a regular basis in communities around overhead wires. The same could be done around the ASOS, but only if the Park wants an accurate climate record.

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9 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

^ Not raining there? It has been wet here for about a half hour now. It's a good soaking rain, not adding up to much, ~.05 around the hill, but everything is thoroughly soaked and soggy.

couple sprinkles but that's about it.

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Looks like the highest temperature departures with coming ridge amplification will be focused over the drought areas to our north and west. We are are on track for a higher dew point warm up that has been common in recent years. During week 2, the models pull the ridge back to the strongest drought conditions over the Western US. So we should see a step down in temperatures then. 
 

7EEB7801-B960-454B-A0B0-2C98AC44D979.thumb.png.0b67fd7749cf6e8aaefcb134be2b3817.png

2EF2401D-082E-463C-ACA2-EEBA5992AEC7.thumb.png.251356071090df597d89cd340c5c4617.png

0733ECD8-C6FE-4393-B6C0-E00E7097293D.thumb.png.0a6570e423c889919a461a2c425b08b9.png

F3E7DAE7-3437-42DA-A602-7ED738B0F35E.thumb.png.ea05da07d62eb066d565609d51278073.png

 

 


 

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Onward and upward with temps we go, and the first chance at a heatwave during the 6/6 - 6/11 period.  Hazy hot and humid type week which have not been that common in the first half of  June the last 10 years outside 2010 / 2011.  You'd have to go back to 2008 for the high heat in early June but thats not likely next week more 90 / low 90s and mid 90s peak in the hot spots.

Beyond there models to indicate a cooldown in the 6/12 - 6/14 period but looking like an overall warmer first half of June that should carryover into the longer range and rest of June.

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yep just started hearing thunder. Looks like it will stay to my east though

looks like the line (of which that cell is embedded in) is filling in towards the north

much more thunder now

not sure about severe but looks like the metro is in for a prolific soaking

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Showers and thundershowers will move through the region this evening. Some areas could pick up a significant rainfall.

In the Northern Plains and southern Canada, record high temperatures were tied or set. Records included:

Billings: 98° (old record: 92°, 1988)
Bismarck: 98° (old record: 96°, 1988)
Estevan, SK: 94° (old record: 91°, 1988)
Fargo: 97° (tied record set in 1968)
Great Falls: 93° (tied record set in 1988)
Minot, ND: 98° (old record: 96°, 1988)
Moose Jaw, SK: 95° (old record: 95°, 1988) ***broke old record by 0.3°C***
Regina, SK: 93° (old record: 93°, 1988) ***broke old record by 0.3°C***

Additional records are likely tomorrow. A piece of that warm air mass will be responsible for the arrival of summerlike heat this weekend.

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with additional showers and thundershowers as warmer air begins to push toward and then into the region. Hot weather will likely arrive for the weekend. The most intense heat will likely last into the middle of next week before a cooling trend commences.

The first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through the first half of June.

The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range.

Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +5.06 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.826 today.

On June 1 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.086 (RMM). The May 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.075 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

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19 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Unfortunately, until there is a desire on the part of Central Park’s conservatory to have accurate temperature record, which would require trimming of the trees, the summer high temperatures there will understate the actual warmth. Trees are trimmed on a regular basis in communities around overhead wires. The same could be done around the ASOS, but only if the Park wants an accurate climate record.

The sea breeze issue at JFK is interesting, sometimes JFK attains the highest temps despite it, because temps rise so quickly in the morning that they reach 90 before noon.  The same happens here, I think because all the tightly packed homes block the sea breeze lol

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17 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the highest temperature departures with coming ridge amplification will be focused over the drought areas to our north and west. We are are on track for a higher dew point warm up that has been common in recent years. During week 2, the models pull the ridge back to the strongest drought conditions over the Western US. So we should see a step down in temperatures then. 
 

7EEB7801-B960-454B-A0B0-2C98AC44D979.thumb.png.0b67fd7749cf6e8aaefcb134be2b3817.png

2EF2401D-082E-463C-ACA2-EEBA5992AEC7.thumb.png.251356071090df597d89cd340c5c4617.png

0733ECD8-C6FE-4393-B6C0-E00E7097293D.thumb.png.0a6570e423c889919a461a2c425b08b9.png

F3E7DAE7-3437-42DA-A602-7ED738B0F35E.thumb.png.ea05da07d62eb066d565609d51278073.png

 

 


 

Chris did you read about 10% of the Giant Sequoia on the planet being dead because of the big wild fire last summer?

Also, the last time Bismarck had back to back days of 100+ was back in 1988.

 

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7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Showers and thundershowers will move through the region this evening. Some areas could pick up a significant rainfall.

In the Northern Plains and southern Canada, record high temperatures were tied or set. Records included:

Billings: 98° (old record: 92°, 1988)
Bismarck: 98° (old record: 96°, 1988)
Estevan, SK: 94° (old record: 91°, 1988)
Fargo: 97° (tied record set in 1968)
Great Falls: 93° (tied record set in 1988)
Minot, ND: 98° (old record: 96°, 1988)
Moose Jaw, SK: 95° (old record: 95°, 1988) ***broke old record by 0.3°C***
Regina, SK: 93° (old record: 93°, 1988) ***broke old record by 0.3°C***

Additional records are likely tomorrow. A piece of that warm air mass will be responsible for the arrival of summerlike heat this weekend.

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with additional showers and thundershowers as warmer air begins to push toward and then into the region. Hot weather will likely arrive for the weekend. The most intense heat will likely last into the middle of next week before a cooling trend commences.

The first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through the first half of June.

The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range.

Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +5.06 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.826 today.

On June 1 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.086 (RMM). The May 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.075 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

Note the records are from 1988 that was also the last time Bismarck ND had consecutive days of 100+

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 78degs.(70/89), or +7.0.

Sat.,Sun.,Mon., Tues. at least look near 90+.    Then a return to near Normal ( clouds, some rain) and another HW around mid-month.

(Was 64* at 5am) 67*(95%RH) here at 6am, overcast.      73* by Noon.       70* by 1pm.        Went from 76* to  64* 3:30pm to 4:30pm.        Sun came out full by 6pm and T went up to 80* at 7:30pm.        73* at 8:00pm.

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris did you read about 10% of the Giant Sequoia on the planet being dead because of the big wild fire last summer?

Also, the last time Bismarck had back to back days of 100+ was back in 1988.

 

The highest temperature departures with the coming warm up will be from the Dakotas to Maine. 

32C66EB0-A05A-4F50-8A00-2FD32F79E374.thumb.png.4c3053908446112ad3b1ca7db64e52ed.png

 

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Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and warm. Showers and thundershowers are possible. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 77°

Newark: 81°

Philadelphia: 82°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and hot.

In the Northern Plains, the temperature will likely reach 100° at Bismarck. Only 1934 saw earlier 100° temperatures on May 27, 28, and 30.

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Note the records are from 1988 that was also the last time Bismarck ND had consecutive days of 100+

 

About half the years in which Bismarck experienced extreme heat during the May 15-June 15 period went on to see one or more intense heatwaves in the Middle Atlantic region, including the New York City area.

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