Cfa Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 Finally getting a some decent rains. First inch+ per hour rates in quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 No rain in 10 days here and the ground is drying out. Todays rain missed me to the northeast and northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 Sprinkles here where I am it definitely cooled off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 1 hour ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said: No rain in 10 days here and the ground is drying out. Todays rain missed me to the northeast and northwest. South shore of Nassau and parts of the city as well. Should have a couple more shots for the next few hours but unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 5 hours ago, psv88 said: West wind and full sun, over performer. Topped out at 92. Planted a ton of grass under my PWS and even watered it at 1:30, so reading not too hot 92° here 0.13" so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s in the region today. 90° or above temperatures were reported at Boston (91°), New York City-LGA (91°), Newark (93°), and Philadelphia (90°). Tomorrow will be another variably cloudy and very warm day. The temperature could reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region. Some areas could see a shower or thunderstorm. It will likely be somewhat cooler on Monday with a greater risk of some showers and thundershowers as Claudette passes well south of the region. Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included: Blythe, CA: 118° Bullhead City, AZ: 118° Death Valley, CA: 125° (tied record set in 2017) Las Vegas: 114° (tied record set in 1940) Needles, CA: 121° Palm Springs, CA: 119° (tied record set in 2016 and tied in 2017) Phoenix: 116° Sacramento: 102° Tucson: 113° Today, Phoenix recorded its 5th consecutive 115° or above temperature. That broke the record for most such days, which was 4. That record was set during June 19-22, 1968 and tied on June 25-28, 1979, June 25-28, 1990, July 26-29, 1995, July 28-31, 2020, and August 16-19, 2020. Tucson further extended its record streak of 110° or above days to 8. Death Valley recorded a June record-tying 5th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 124° or above. The record was set during June 26-30, 1994. Tomorrow will be another very hot day in the Southwest before some modest cooling takes place. Severe heat could return by the latter part of the week. In large part on account of Phoenix's concluding extreme heat event, there is an implied 66% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature above 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -7.94 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.145 today. On June 17 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.200 (RMM). The June 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.457 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 1 hour ago, STORMANLI said: 92° here 0.13" so far Nice to see our numbers match. Definitely gets toasty in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like a cutter storm track next 10 days around the periphery of the WAR. Interior sections generally do better than the coast in patterns like this. Maybe we can sneak in a slow moving warm front which usually is our best bet this time of year. But at least we should see opportunities for convection going forward. i could see us getting a record dewpoint day with convection that makes it to suffolk co 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Another bust storm day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 6/19 EWR: 93 LGA: 91 PHL: 90 BLM: 89 TEB: 89 JFK: 89 NYC: 88 New Brnswck: 88 ISP: 88 ACY: 88 TTN: 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 92 before some rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 89° here for hi today with 0.14" rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Belmar was cool and cloudy all day with off and on sprinkles. water temp was 64F, spent considerable time swimming but eventually it was too much cold too long and I gave up. heavy rains moved in during dinner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 What’s the euro showing for next weekend? GFS is rainy, CMC isn’t showing much. Having an outdoor party, hoping this time we skip out on the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 On 6/18/2021 at 7:39 AM, bluewave said: Yeah, the Dust Bowl was an early example of humans altering the Great Plains climate through land degradation. We had a big hand in the magnitude of the record heat. Now we are cooling the region through our farming practices. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16676-w Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the wide-spread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/america-s-corn-belt-making-its-own-weather The Great Plains of the central United States—the Corn Belt—is one of the most fertile regions on Earth, producing more than 10 billion bushels of corn each year. It’s also home to some mysterious weather: Whereas the rest of the world has warmed, the region’s summer temperatures have dropped as much as a full degree Celsius, and rainfall has increased up to 35%, the largest spike anywhere in the world. The culprit, according to a new study, isn’t greenhouse gas emissions or sea surface temperature—it’s the corn itself. This is the first time anyone has examined regional climate change in the central United States by directly comparing the influence of greenhouse gas emissions to agriculture, says Nathan Mueller, an earth systems scientist at the University of California (UC), Irvine, who was not involved with this study. It’s important to understand how agricultural activity can have “surprisingly strong” impacts on climate change, he says. the corn and also this unfortunate practice of chopping down forests to make room for grazing. We have deforestation going on big time especially in the south and middle of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 5 hours ago, SACRUS said: 6/19 EWR: 93 LGA: 91 PHL: 90 BLM: 89 TEB: 89 JFK: 89 NYC: 88 New Brnswck: 88 ISP: 88 ACY: 88 TTN: 87 89 ugh if we had a little more sun we'd hit 90 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 12 hours ago, forkyfork said: beast of a WAR on the euro humid not very hot heat or an actual heat wave with westerly winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 11 hours ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see if the late June WAR can link up with the Rockies Ridge in July. Maybe after July 15th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 75degs.(66/84), or about Normal. Month to date is 72.8[+2.4]. Should be about 73.4[+1.7] by the 28th. 66*(85%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 68* at 7am. Reached 81* at 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Today should see more sunshine than Saturday and more widespread 90s, in some cases day 2 of a 3 day potential short heatwave. More of the same on Monday with some of the warmer places perhaps hitting the mid 90s with enough clearing and 850MB temps >18c. Cold front will bring storms on Tuesday (6/22) with drier/ more normal temps Wed (6/23) - Thu (6/24). Beyond there Miami weather on southerly winds as the Western Atlantic RIdge builds west Fri (6/25) - end of June extending along the coast. Need to see the placement and how far westward this can expand. Should it not come as west it will be a very wet, humid period. Right now iECM is pushing the ridge far enough west that areas west see most of the rain associated with a sort of hung up front. July - looking in the way beyond longer range guidance has the front clearing the coast with heights rebuilding into the East. That rockies ridge may fire back up and we will need to see the next pulse west of the Western Atlantic Ride. Overall warm / humid pattern that can put up decent rain amounts on scattered storms (Miami like) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly cloudy and very warm. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s in most places. A few places could reach 90°. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 87° Newark: 92° Philadelphia: 90° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 81.1°; 15-Year: 81.0° Newark: 30-Year: 83.4°; 15-Year: 83.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.7°; 15-Year: 84.9° Tomorrow could see somewhat more clouds as Claudette passes well south of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 High for the day yesterday was 91 here. Current temp 78/DP 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 For future reference. when the July Fourth WE is upon us Will the GFS be a heel or a star? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Wet period coming up on the GFS starting next week. Hopefully its wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Current temp here 81/DP 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Current temp 87/DP 70 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Reached 88° here earlier...winds shifted to se, down to 83°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Mount Holly has similar thoughts. Upton: Friday could be interesting meteorologically speaking. Global models are beginning to depict a broad low pressure system near North Carolina forming off the decaying front from earlier in the week. This inverted trough rides the synoptic flow north nearing Long Island Friday. With it precipitable water values increase to around 1.5-1.7 inches. Depending on the nature of the system and its proximity, southern New York could see increased rain chances for Friday. Attention shifts over the weekend to the trough and frontal system deepening near the Ohio River valley. This could be a fairly a traditional frontal system with CAPE values around 500-1000 J/kg and unidirectional shear meaning that strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible. The exact timing remains uncertain, but current guidance is hinting towards a Sunday into Monday timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Wet period coming up on the GFS starting next week. Hopefully its wrong. 18z GFS said get the ark ready 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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