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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Definitely true for the majority of the area.  One of my "secrets" up here actually is ratios.  With my elevation (about 1,050 ft) I typically do get higher ratios.  15-1 is pretty common and I have even gone 20-1 in some storms (feb 10 2010).  Yea the orographics help get a little more precip but its actually more so the ratios that account for my "jack zone" more often then not.  

I can believe that.  I had about 2" of snow (plus sleet/rain) from our December storm and then was up in your area the following weekend.  Your neck of the woods was beautiful with at least 6-8" of snow still on the ground! 

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Good disco by LWX:

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The coveted shortwave trough responsible for the rather dramatic
shifts in the forecast for the second half of the weekend moved
onshore of western North America overnight, and is expected to be
amplify over the Tennessee River Valley Saturday night. This will
result in cyclogenesis (development of low pressure) off the
southeast coast. It appears the northwestward trend in the track of
this low pressure closer to the coast is due at least in part to (1)
a slightly stronger ridge over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
deflecting the low pressure closer to the coast, and (2) slightly
more separation and amplification between the incoming shortwave
trough, and low pressure associated with today`s cold front
departing over southeastern Canada; this results in a subtle
yet all-important opportunity for phasing between the northern
and southern branches of the jet stream.

What this means in terms of sensible weather locally is that the
chances for precipitation have increased markedly for Saturday night
into Sunday. The airmass will be marginally cold (see: high
temperatures near 50 the preceding day on Saturday), but should be
cold enough for the bulk of the precipitation to fall as snow
(though a start as light rain or a mix is possible). The late-
night timing of precipitation and dynamic cooling aloft from
lift between the phasing shortwave troughs on the northwest side
of the surface low should keep temperatures cold enough for
(wet) snow during the height of the event, and the dynamics may
result in a few bands of moderately heavy snow at times,
particularly SE of US-29.

The potential for a warning-level snowfall event (5"+ in 12
hours east of the Appalachian Mountains) seems modest despite
the dynamics given the marginal temperatures and the short
duration of the event. Still, any further shifts may result in
an uptick (or downtick) in forecasted snowfall amounts.
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Just now, Cobalt said:

Canadian looks to be a pretty substantial hit FWIW

I_nw_EST_2021020512_049.thumb.png.4df46199106060336ee9e071f0adfa89.png

The canadian mimics the NAMs intense 700mb frontogenetic forcing all the way up into Long Island.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Now we need a stall lol

If the Canadian solution occurs but we take into account your trend prediction, we’ll be getting double digits :)

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The storm pulls in a good amount of moisture from the gulf (and even further south) during it’s formation. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if qpf juiced up more as we get closer. 

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

What time do the gefs come out? I know it used to be around 12:30 but I think some of you post them a lot earlier now

They’ve been out. I’d actually say they ticked SE oddly enough

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Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

They’ve been out. I’d actually say they ticked SE oddly enough

Think that’s skewed by the few members that are still complete whiffs? 

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1 minute ago, peribonca said:

The storm pulls in a good amount of moisture from the gulf (and even further south) during it’s formation. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if qpf juiced up more as we get closer. 

Agreed, I am a novice when it comes to fully understanding the upper levels and minutia of a storm.  But looking at the low placement, while there has definitely been tics NW.  One thing is for sure, on all the maps it is digging more grabbing up more gulf moisture making a more impressive western precip shield. 

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5 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

HREF mean. Does not capture the whole event; only through 12z Sunday.

164166058_snowfall_024h_mean_ma.f04800(1).thumb.png.d23374dc9a4bc05c2e776f6e63662c4c.png

I'm gonna be point blank with you that that presentation is one hell of a look for the HREF at range. 

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

I'm gonna be point blank with you that that presentation is one hell of a look for the HREF at range. 

Yes. HREF always seems to underdo snow. The fact that it's painting 4-6" is impressive, standard regional disclaimer about microclimates apply.

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1 minute ago, wxdude64 said:

Winter Storm Watches hoisted by NWS Blacksburg

I like your spot for this one! Could be nuking snowballs for multiple hours before it pulls out. Might need to set and alarm and brew the coffee beforehand, but might be worth it!

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

I'm gonna be point blank with you that that presentation is one hell of a look for the HREF at range. 

Perhaps even more so than shown given the outlier the HRRR is throwing into the mean:

275255392_cref_members_ma.f04400(1).thumb.png.19d4af3ab116875a9808ce73d7f00e0e.png

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yes. HREF always seems to underdo snow. The fact that it's painting 4-6" is impressive, standard regional disclaimer about microclimates apply.

I'm out of likes apparently, so take my vocal "like"

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I was just listening to WAVA while doing my pilates and they mentioned highs in the 60s for Sunday.... who do I believe???

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12 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Nice hit on 12z uncle

Always wanted to hit my a-hole uncle at 7AM...but yes, nice 12z CYCLE!....good consensus I think on a 3-6" pasting with perhaps a narrow stripe somewhere of 6-9"

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