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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Of course you never can be certain and the favored climo areas usually do better, but I like where the 95 corridor sits for this one.  We're about 36 hours from game time and most global models and mesos target our area or just SE with the heaviest stripe, with a little wiggle room for a late NW shift.   Plus, this almost feels like a bonus event after 2 fifty degree days. 

Just like last week when model consensus at this time consistently showed double digit totals up and down 95. 

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We get a great 12z suite and NAM starts off the 18z suite with a nice hit and people are still finding something to whine about lol. Love you guys, but come on, we know this. Same song and dance every storm. The likelihood our entire CWA sees a warning level snowstorm — where everyone from the shoreline to PSUHoffman sees 6+ is almost 0%. It’s just not a thing that ever really occurs around here, especially not in a marginal setup. 

Let’s zone in folks. A Nice snowfall is heading our way!!

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5 minutes ago, MDRandy said:

Just like last week when model consensus at this time consistently showed double digit totals up and down 95. 

I don’t think all of the models were slightly southeast of bulls eyeing the I-95 corridor from 36-40 hours out but maybe I wasn’t paying attention that close.

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16 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

The watch was just issued, but yes the point forecasts still look like the wording from a little earlier.  Maybe not caught up yet on the actual forecast wording update.

The watch can be issued prior to fine tuning the grids. I personally don't like doing that, but I think they want to get the word out quickly and then shape up the grids to accurately portray what they are thinking right now. 

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6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

NAMs are really honking about big lift at 700mb. Would lover to see what a forecast sounding looks like for Annapolis Sunday around 10:00 am. If we can maximize the lift in the DGZ . . .

Its starting to dry out a bit by that time but before that it's NOICE.

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

The watch can be issued prior to fine tuning the grids. I personally don't like doing that, but I think they want to get the word out quickly and then shape up the grids to accurately portray what they are thinking right now. 

Call LWX and tell them to hurry with their AFD.  There are important weenies out there that need this.

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11 minutes ago, MDRandy said:

Just like last week when model consensus at this time consistently showed double digit totals up and down 95. 

This isn't even in the same stratosphere as the last system. Evolution and moisture transport are totally different. Upper levels are different. This will come down to rates and evap cooling of the lowest 3000' in the boundary layer. Baltimore still looks good, but areas west of I-83 need to watch for anymore NW trend. 

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