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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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Nam has temps topping out around 45 tomorrow. 38 around 1 AM when some light rain creeps in, then temps plunge as heavy precip moves in. Changes to snow and it rips from about 2-4 AM to 8-10 AM with temperatures hovering right around freezing. This is for the Baltimore area. 

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

NAM nest has the sfc low much further northwest, and that's bad for southern MD snow weenies.    It's still great for the I-95 corridor, but I can't help but be a little nervous about one more tick to the northwest ruining the party for more of us.

 

I just saw that...what a travesty.   

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Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

The watch was just issued, but yes the point forecasts still look like the wording from a little earlier.  Maybe not caught up yet on the actual forecast wording update.

Ah...that must be it because it’s awful for most everyone as written even up to JYO

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Just now, JakkelWx said:

NAM too close for comfort with the rain/snow line. I really hope this ticks back S a little.

Mount Holly usually always plays these systems correctly. If you have been reading their AFDs, they have been downplaying the chances for significant snow SE of I-95 due to temps, timing, and likely NW shifts. They have had snow to rain here since early yesterday, when no model was showing that, and still do. I said earlier today 2-4 seems about right. Mount Holly has 1-3 here currently. We shall see!

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Just now, JakkelWx said:

2-4 here is absolutely perfect and the fact that we have potentially storm after storm after this one eases my woes

This thing literally came out of nowhere, and  I have kept my expectations low because there really is nothing to keep it from tracking too close if the more amped solutions verify.

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2 minutes ago, MDRandy said:

One more tick NW - probably tonight or tomorrow - and the 95 corridor is just a rain/snow mix. This looks like a 81 corridor special 

Of course you never can be certain and the favored climo areas usually do better, but I like where the 95 corridor sits for this one.  We're about 36 hours from game time and most global models and mesos target our area or just SE with the heaviest stripe, with a little wiggle room for a late NW shift.   Plus, this almost feels like a bonus event after 2 fifty degree days. 

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