Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979

[WxUSAF]

Just now, CAPE said:

GFS jumped on board the Euro and Icon train for you and @JakkelWx with the parting shot on Tuesday. Hope that works out for you all. 
 

Non-NAM 12z guidance all seems to suggest a non-bust, if perhaps lower end of forecast ranges for most in the metro corridor. 

[jmk]

Just came back after about 1.5 hours with my 2 year old. No matter what we get that made it worth it, he loved it. First real snow.

Regarding the dry spot on the radar, we're in it in Gainesville and still have flakes coming down, but lighter than before. Measured about 2.5 so far.

[Always in Zugzwang]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Not sure what you’re aiming for, but I definitely don’t hate it. Nice snow for DC and north tomorrow afternoon.

Yeah, was just looking a that.  Whatever it's worth, it shows ~2" in DC, with maybe 2-4" just north of there (MoCo/HoCo, etc.), and more heading toward the M/D line.  This is a 24-h amount from 00Z tonight through 00Z tomorrow night.

[George BM]

 

56 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Can’t believe you are complaining with two feet on the ground. Some people /s

THIS! He thinks he has it bad with 2 feet. I'm right by Dulles and somehow only have 2.4" as of 10am w/ flurries. Perhaps extreme substance right by the epic snow-band? 

[nw baltimore wx]

Banding starting to form across northern MD. I know a lot of people are disappointed so far with rates, but some of the models showed this gradual increase in rates yesterday.

[CAPE]

Just now, JakkelWx said:

Sweet.

 The transition to the coastal is better and its not as warm for as long in our area. Good trends.

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

      I was very pleased with the GFS too, but the GFS para has the same general shape of the QPF field but cuts down the amounts between DC and the MD/PA by at least 1/2.

Both drop a solid 0.5” or more of liquid as snow before any mix this evening, so that’s nice to see. Difference is in amounts tomorrow. Guess we’ll see what the King decrees later.

[leesburg 04]

1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah, was just looking a that.  Whatever it's worth, it shows ~2" in DC, with maybe 2-4" just north of there (MoCo/HoCo, etc.), and more heading toward the M/D line.  This is a 24-h amount from 00Z tonight through 00Z tomorrow night.

Acceptable in my eyes

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Not sure what you’re aiming for, but I definitely don’t hate it. Nice snow for DC and north tomorrow afternoon.

I was just looking at the next 18 hours and it has the dry slot.  Does look nice for tomorrow still. 

[WxUSAF]

Can tell the column has moistened up and we’re getting better lift now, because even when rates let up a bit, we’re not going back to really tiny flakes.

[jonjon]

We've gotten lucky out here on this one so far.  Moisture training us all morning.  Over 7" so far.  Looks like it cuts off quickly just south of here, hope it keeps coming during the day.  Nice surprise so far.

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Banding starting to form across northern MD. I know a lot of people are disappointed so far with rates, but some of the models showed this gradual increase in rates yesterday.

yeah, models didn't have the goods up here until after noon. no disappointment here 

[Dabuckeyes]

1 hour ago, gopper said:

Not sure about main roads, but side roads are instant coverage.  Coming down pretty good now, so I would think some main roads are covered, but they usually do a good job keeping 83 pretty clear.  Drive safe!  Hershey open now?  Rides and everything?

Did Hershey lodge and chocolate world for my daughters birthday. Not too busy. Roads in PA were not great, MD highways are good. Nice snow falling here in Lutherville with a temp of 27

[NorthArlington101]

Up 860ft at Observatory Hill. -SN and gorgeous. Might stay here all day.

[CAPE]

GFS looks nice for this evening.

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, high risk said:

      I was very pleased with the GFS too, but the GFS para has the same general shape of the QPF field but cuts down the amounts between DC and the MD/PA by at least 1/2.

Actually they look very similar to me now that I look closely?

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Both drop a solid 0.5” or more of liquid as snow before any mix this evening, so that’s nice to see. Difference is in amounts tomorrow. Guess we’ll see what the King decrees later.

        Yeah, I didn't explain myself well, but I was referring to tomorrow - big differences in rates for Howard County.

[ErinInTheSky]

Reading the room here it sounds like we still have hope. Awesome. I turned off the models and computer and I’m going build a snowman with my kiddo.

[jayyy]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Banding starting to form across northern MD. I know a lot of people are disappointed so far with rates, but some of the models showed this gradual increase in rates yesterday.

Rgem was really the only model that showed a giant wall of snow (going from cloudy skies to 1” per hour rates within minutes) Most other models showed 3-6” from the WAA occurring over a 12+ hour period w/ the most snowfall falling in the higher elevations of SWVA.... this is pretty much in line with what’s happening on the ground. Problem is people call it a “WAA thump” and expect heavy snow. It was never going to be a thump. 

Our biggest task today will be checking out the pressure fall maps off the east coast to can get an idea of where this transfer will begin to happen. Literally 50 miles south of the GFS and we are in a much different ball game for part 2 area wide. 
 

12z GFS actually, to me, leaves the door open for improvement by tomorrow. We are so close to a 12+ snowstorm area wide with that look, it just all comes together a hair too late

[MD Snow]

Need rates. 

31/27

Not just a hobby for me. I'm a landscaper so this effects snow removal for me. 

Snow started around 7:30. Quickly stuck to everything. Had a little dry spell around 9:30. Roads and even side roads clear now and rates having a hard time overcoming. Snow will not accumulate on roads with a temp of 31 and light/moderate rates. Would be a big bust for snow removal companies in AA county if this continues. 

All guidance has the heavies coming in later this afternoon. So i'm still cautiously optimistic. 

[high risk]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Actually they look very similar to me now that I look closely?

     I'm looking at the 24h QPF totals between 12z Monday and 12z Tuesday.      GFS para looks considerably drier to me.

[JakkelWx]

Could this band of snow like not weaken right before the heaviest part gets here?

[JakkelWx]

[KingJWx]

Light snow now, looks like I beat the December storm total at least.

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

     I'm looking at the 24h QPF totals between 12z Monday and 12z Tuesday.      GFS para looks considerably drier to me.

Huh, yeah I see that now, but total precip through Wednesday morning is very similar. Haven’t looked close enough yet to see where para makes it back up.

[leesburg 04]

Just now, JakkelWx said:

That counts what we are getting now?

[JakkelWx]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

That counts what we are getting now?

Yes

[paxpatriot]

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The gfs gives me another .75 of QPF. I will take that in a heartbeat. It is lightyears better than what the meso's are showing. 

Am I the only one in awe of the disparity there? GFS insists we I-81 folks get 8-14 inches, and the NAM’s are a fraction of that. I’d like to think the GFS has a better idea as it hasn’t budged in a number of runs now.

[Eskimo Joe]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z GFS looks pretty damn good.

Yes it does look pretty good.

[MN Transplant]

7am - 1.0”

9am - 2.0”

11am - 2.4”