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Bob Chill

Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979

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29 and just over an inch in Centreville.

Western edge of radar past I-81 looks to be filling in.

GFS won the battle of the models from earlier in the week. A EURO suppressed scenario was just plain wrong.

That said, 6z GFS has actually brought some of the CCB back towards the DC area.

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Nightmare #1 scenario off the table. Woke up, ground wasn't bare, and radar matches expectations. Must have started early here. Somewhere around a half inch already. 

I'm rooting for @CAPE. If anyone deserves a deform boom in a regionwide storm, it's him. Not that wx cares but I do

Eta: you'll notice I totally contradicted myself from the first post in this thread. Seeing snow fall laying in bed is like drugs and makes me a little emotional. If the snow suddenly shuts off in my yard, I no longer care about CAPE

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14 minutes ago, mattie g said:

0.75” in Burke. Currently light snow and 28°.

@MN Transplant or @yoda...any idea when it started? Important for my daughter’s math lesson!

Must have been between 4-5am based on my temp/DP trace.

Edit - per my cameras, actually closer to 3:30am.

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Just now, EB89 said:

What’s with the gap in radar over Frederick stretching NE?

Random pocket of dry air probably and it will be gone pretty quickly

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Random pocket of dry air probably and it will be gone pretty quickly

And just as I read your reply, coming down steadily heavier. Thanks. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nightmare #1 scenario off the table. Woke up, ground wasn't bare, and radar matches expectations. Must have started early here. Somewhere around a half inch already. 

I'm rooting for @CAPE. If anyone deserves a deform boom in a regionwide storm, it's him. Not that wx cares but I do

What time do you think the snow will be at peak intensity today in the DC metro region?

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Initial band pushed here and dropped a small dusting as I looked outside, just like CAPE said. Also the RH here is around 80% and the final push should have no problem getting here, which is half an hour or so away.

29/24

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Nightmare #1 scenario off the table. Woke up, ground wasn't bare, and radar matches expectations. Must have started early here. Somewhere around a half inch already. 

I'm rooting for @CAPE. If anyone deserves a deform boom in a regionwide storm, it's him. Not that wx cares but I do

It would be sort of an odd evolution to pull that off, but when the usual places NW are getting jacked with deathbands it's usually dry slotted over here with snizzle. I have a feeling it would end up more expansive if its real. Something to monitor while we watch the snow fall today. Good luck!

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6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Must have been between 4-5am based on my temp/DP trace.

Edit - per my cameras, actually closer to 3:30am.

Thanks. We’re shooting for two-hour measuring intervals for plotting on a graph. I’ll just call it a linear increase from 3:30-7:30!

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1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

And just like that, first flurries- Parkville 21234

Will be keeping an eye a bit on your obs. My sister and her family live up the hill in Carney, very close to Cub Hill. Off Northwind Road. It's my old home I grew up in. It's always 2-3 degrees colder up that way. I'll be comparing your obs as my meteorology loving nephew will be taking snow measurements for his first time today! 

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6 minutes ago, real said:

What time do you think the snow will be at peak intensity today in the DC metro region?

Typically with waa snow, peak rates/snowgrowth hits when warmer mid level air is getting close to messing things up so my brain says final 2 hours before tapering off. This is a complex event though so that rule of thumb may not apply.

This is a very technical way of me saying I have no idea. I'll guess 12-2pm 

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1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Moderate now. Everything caving quickly...

Hopefully they can patch all the craters with all the caving ;)

Enjoy the snow and have a cold one for me please!

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Snowed baby powder since 4am <_<. Snow picking up intensity in last 15 minutes. 1/2" coating on cars, grass and some driveways. Streets were damp, now looking more icy than white. SE DC proper.

31 degrees and holding since precip started.

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i would say that light snow just switched over to Moderate snow in Downtown DC.  Visibility down to a half-mile or so.

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Woke up with the ground and streets covered near DTSS. Rates picking up now. 

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