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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

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42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

For NYC maybe, areas to the north and west don’t look good. But look at the new ICON, GFS, and even the NAM at the end of its run, they are all going south now like the Euro/EPS. The 12z Ukie was the start of the trend

You sound so pessimistic. That’s so unlike you. :rolleyes:

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5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

You sound so pessimistic. That’s so unlike you. :rolleyes:

He mentions the 12z Ukie but doesn't mention the hit on the 0z Ukie. How fitting.

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48 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Did you look at the 0z ukie ? Come on.

It was good for NYC, cutoff on snow north and west. Not everyone in this forum lives in NYC

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In any case us N&W crew need to pay attention today. The difference between next to nothing, a 3-6/4-8 caliber event (in both cases with a cutoff of N-S being close to us) or a significant storm is pretty close at the moment. 

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It was good for NYC, cutoff on snow north and west. Not everyone in this forum lives in NYC

Yes but the 12z Ukie missed everyone 

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3 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

In any case us N&W crew need to pay attention today. The difference between next to nothing, a 3-6/4-8 caliber event (in both cases with a cutoff of N-S being close to us) or a significant storm is pretty close at the moment. 

Atm this looks like an advisory level event for us up in the I84 corridor. SNJ & Philly are looking good right now 

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In any case us N&W crew need to pay attention today. The difference between next to nothing, a 3-6/4-8 caliber event (in both cases with a cutoff of N-S being close to us) or a significant storm is pretty close at the moment. 

I just want enough to try out my new snowblower and for the kids to help shovel while having fun. A 4 to 8 even would do that, tyvm.


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2 minutes ago, North and West said:


I just want enough to try out my new snowblower and for the kids to help shovel while having fun. A 4 to 8 even would do that, tyvm.


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I’m more willing to take a 3-6/4-8 than wind up with nothing as well. Much easier to clear when you have a big driveway like I do. Took a cumulative five hours back on 12/17 to get everything away with limited assistance from plows. 

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9 minutes ago, North and West said:


I just want enough to try out my new snowblower and for the kids to help shovel while having fun. A 4 to 8 even would do that, tyvm.


.

Same here. Don't need 2 feet.  I too have a couple of new snow blowers ( sears was blowing out there inventory, got a yard machine 28 inch for 299, got a 24 inch Craftsman for 159, both dual stage; the Craftsman had to serviced before it even ran! though the mechanic tells me they are all made by MTD....

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With primary being pretty far north, 50/50 low moving east, and strong ridging east of New England being the norm I do not think this will be a suppressed system at least not for immediate NYC metro. 

I think the Euro will come around soon enough.

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52 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes but the 12z Ukie missed everyone 

Let him get his 5 PDD day in now, it’s nice and early in the morning. 

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5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

With primary being pretty far north, 50/50 low moving east, and strong ridging east of New England being the norm I do not think this will be a suppressed system at least not for immediate NYC metro. 

I think the Euro will come around soon enough.

Issue is the confluence seems to be strengthening on some of the modeling which forces it too far south. Hopefully that’s a trend that can reverse. 

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I’m more willing to take a 3-6/4-8 than wind up with nothing as well. Much easier to clear when you have a big driveway like I do. Took a cumulative five hours back on 12/17 to get everything away with limited assistance from plows. 

March 2018 did that to me. Unreal.

Probably like most of us here, I love the anticipation and to see it happen, but then reality hits when you have a home, family, and life.


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Here is my 2 cents as B R always talks about the Macdonald rule which is " where the system enters on the West Coast it usually exits in the east coast " and IF this holds true with this storm THEN South of NYC is the place to be for this one,,,,,does it happen ? ---> 3 days to go

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Areas from Central New Jersey to the South Shore of LI need to see that strong confluence over New England at this range. That is really the only way that coastal sections can finally get more snow than interior areas. Every big snow event since 18-19 at this range had a jackpot near or just north of NYC. So the late bump north gave Long Island mixing issues and less snowfall. So maybe this will be our first throwback storm to 09-10 to 17-18 that favored coastal sections and even areas to the south of NYC for the heaviest snows. The model shifts in current days will determine the outcome. We just don’t want a 2-6-10 style confluence...LOL...

yeah won't really have a good idea until 12z tomorrow at the earliest.    Too many live and die by every model run-there's people analyzing the 84 hr NAM...:weenie:

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Morning thoughts...

The coldest air so far this season now covers the region. At  7 am, the temperature in Central Park was 16°. That is New York city’s first reading in the teens since February 15, 2020 when the temperature fell to 14°. Winter 2019-20 had 3 days on which the temperature fell below 20° in New York City. Winter 2018-19 had 11 such days.

Despite sunshine, temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 20s in most of the region. Areas near Philadelphia could rise into the upper 20s or perhaps lower 30s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 24°

Newark: 25°

Philadelphia: 30°

A significant snowfall is possible early next week. The 0z GFS and GDPS, along with the 6z GFS favor a significant snowfall. Through 84 hours, both the NAM and RGEM are reasonably in line with the guidance showing a significant snowfall. However, this outcome is not yet cast in stone. The 0z ECMWF is an outlier with a more offshore solution. The percentage of EPS ensemble members showing 6” or more snow for the Philadelphia to Boston area has decreased from 1/28 0z and 12z. 

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55 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

With primary being pretty far north, 50/50 low moving east, and strong ridging east of New England being the norm I do not think this will be a suppressed system at least not for immediate NYC metro. 

I think the Euro will come around soon enough.

I agree with you

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Areas from Central New Jersey to the South Shore of LI need to see that strong confluence over New England at this range. That is really the only way that coastal sections can finally get more snow than interior areas. Every big snow event since 18-19 at this range had a jackpot near or just north of NYC. So the late bump north gave Long Island mixing issues and less snowfall. So maybe this will be our first throwback storm to 09-10 to 17-18 that favored coastal sections and even areas to the south of NYC for the heaviest snows. The model shifts in current days will determine the outcome. We just don’t want a 2-6-10 style confluence...LOL...

Yes, definitely true. Last minute north trends are undeniable in 90% of the storms  that come here in the winter. On 12/17 areas that got 30”+ had something like 0.25” liquid on most models 24 hours before. 

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Saw EPS 06z ensemble lows...slightly deeper and maybe slightly closer but still southeastward to the BM.  Insignificant change? 

Attached: GGEM op 06z version qpf in MM for snow/sleet/rain.  Continues to look promising  but with the EPS uncertainty.  GEM op by 1P Monday nearly a foot vicinity ABE. 

Screen Shot 2021-01-29 at 7.58.31 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-01-29 at 7.58.18 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-01-29 at 7.57.55 AM.png

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Most guidance is now struggling to get precipitation into the area on Sunday.  Delays it into Monday and possibly late Monday for northeast suburbs.  That shortens the potential duration of snow by several hours.

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30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Areas from Central New Jersey to the South Shore of LI need to see that strong confluence over New England at this range. That is really the only way that coastal sections can finally get more snow than interior areas. Every big snow event since 18-19 at this range had a jackpot near or just north of NYC. So the late bump north gave Long Island mixing issues and less snowfall. So maybe this will be our first throwback storm to 09-10 to 17-18 that favored coastal sections and even areas to the south of NYC for the heaviest snows. The model shifts in current days will determine the outcome. We just don’t want a 2-6-10 style confluence...LOL...

Great point. Even for NYC itself you’d probably rather be on the NW edge of the heavy snow at this range rather than the SE edge. Every system and setup is different so this may or may not take the usual nw trend but it’s been a while since you regions you mentioned and even NYC metro had an all snow event so I guess take what you can get. 

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9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Most guidance is now struggling to get precipitation into the area on Sunday.  Delays it into Monday and possibly late Monday for northeast suburbs.  That shortens the potential duration of snow by several hours.

This has been the trend for a while. Always was concerned overrunning would not make it to us 

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

This has been the trend for a while. Always was concerned overrunning would not make it to us 

I suppose it could come back a little bit in short term modeling. But it looks like we'll mostly have to wait for the main deal up here.

Slightly positive signs I see are the 06z GEFS ticking up with QPF on the northern edge and the NAVGEM bumping north again with a pretty good run. Usually it's good to be on the NW edge of a mature 700mb circulation. It could even come down to nowcasting. We'll see.

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9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

This has been the trend for a while. Always was concerned overrunning would not make it to us 

similar to the Dec 19-20,2009 storm the precip took quite a while to travel through NJ towards the metro ………….

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