Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[eduggs]

I have a bad feeling about yesterday's UK and the 6z Euro that miss us.  They show the progression that I've (we've) been fearing. And it looks right to me. I hope it's just irrational pessimism from being snakebit so much lately. Realistically almost every major storm has significant model uncertainty until a day or two before the event. Model disagreement and run to run changes are part of the game.

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I have a bad feeling about yesterday's UK and the 6z Euro that miss us.  They show the progression that I've (we've) been fearing. And it looks right to me. I hope it's just irrational pessimism from being snakebit so much lately. Realistically almost every major storm has significant model uncertainty until a day or two before the event. Model disagreement and run to run changes are part of the game.

I’m trying to not get too caught up in each model run. Euro worries me but has also been inconsistent with this storm telling me it may not have a great handle on it. I still think a warning level event likely I95 and points SE. NW of there is iffy but not out 

[North and West]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I have a bad feeling about yesterday's UK and the 6z Euro that miss us.  They show the progression that I've (we've) been fearing. And it looks right to me. I hope it's just irrational pessimism from being snakebit so much lately. Realistically almost every major storm has significant model uncertainty until a day or two before the event. Model disagreement and run to run changes are part of the game.

And total game theory here, that's just our own internal biases projecting. I hear you being in Morris, too, but nature doesn't care about what happened in an analog event. Each event may rhyme, but it doesn't repeat. 

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I have a bad feeling about yesterday's UK and the 6z Euro that miss us.  They show the progression that I've (we've) been fearing. And it looks right to me. I hope it's just irrational pessimism from being snakebit so much lately. Realistically almost every major storm has significant model uncertainty until a day or two before the event. Model disagreement and run to run changes are part of the game.

Eps was further  west than the op run 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

The coldest air so far this season now covers the region. At  7 am, the temperature in Central Park was 16°. That is New York city’s first reading in the teens since February 15, 2020 when the temperature fell to 14°. Winter 2019-20 had 3 days on which the temperature fell below 20° in New York City. Winter 2018-19 had 11 such days.

Despite sunshine, temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 20s in most of the region. Areas near Philadelphia could rise into the upper 20s or perhaps lower 30s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 24°

Newark: 25°

Philadelphia: 30°

A significant snowfall is possible early next week. The 0z GFS and GDPS, along with the 6z GFS favor a significant snowfall. Through 84 hours, both the NAM and RGEM are reasonably in line with the guidance showing a significant snowfall. However, this outcome is not yet cast in stone. The 0z ECMWF is an outlier with a more offshore solution. The percentage of EPS ensemble members showing 6” or more snow for the Philadelphia to Boston area has decreased from 1/28 0z and 12z. 

Great trajectory of the TPV for nyc cold. Boston is currently 7 degrees 

[Allsnow]

The models did a great job Forecasting this cold shot from a week out. The cold is here so we didn’t kick the can 

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, Allsnow said:

The models did a great job Forecasting this cold shot from a week out. The cold is here so we didn’t kick the can 

Now we just need the snow lol

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Now we just need the snow lol

We can say this much so far this winter, we have timed our snow threats with the limited cold shots this season.

[the_other_guy]

9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Now we just need the snow lol

You just need to live like 4 miles north and that’s where the snow is on the ground at present 

[NEG NAO]

on the 12Z NAM the transfer to the coast happens between hr. 60 -63 - after that in its unreliable range the storm starts taking a near benchmark track up the coast

[NEG NAO]

Then at hour 84 the 12Z NAM in its unreliable range starts moving west towards the NJ coast after stalling out in its previous few hours. All in All the transfer at hour 60 -63 can be seriously considered BUT after that we still don't know the exact track of this storm..........

[HeadInTheClouds]

Nam at it's extended range has been better than GFS so here's hoping. That's a perfect position at hour 84. 

[wdrag]

I don't plan on any thread headline upgrades til at least  5P (I'll be offline 1230-4P).  Prefer to see the multitude of 12z/29 model solutions/ensembles. No matter the lesser reliability of the NAM after 60 hours and debate on transfer and thence further northward or more eastward development, and the process quite sensitive to the confluence latitude to our north, I am heartened that it is this far north. 

 

[MJO812]

Icon is a crush job

 

[crossbowftw3]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon is a crush job

 

Those of us north of 84 are beginning to run out of time. If this works out verbatim then I’m still okay with it since NYC deserves its crusher. Granted this is the ICON so 

[SnowGoose69]

The RGEM pretty much resembles the Euro.  It would be a miss relatively speaking for NW areas and nothing big near the metro either.   Might mean we aren’t seeing any big move west by the Euro at 12z though I joked in the SNE forum this is usually when some model joins the Euro only for the Euro to move the other way 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The RGEM pretty much resembles the Euro.  It would be a miss relatively speaking for NW areas and nothing big near the metro either.   Might mean we aren’t seeing any big move west by the Euro at 12z though I joked in the SNE forum this is usually when some model joins the Euro only for the Euro to move the other way 

We dont know where it goes after 84 hours 

 

[snowman19]

Just now, crossbowftw3 said:

Those of us north of 84 are beginning to run out of time. If this works out verbatim then I’m still okay with it since NYC deserves its crusher. Granted this is the ICON so 

This is looking more and more like a NYC and south snowstorm. The op Euro/EPS is deadly in this time frame and has been very consistent since 12z yesterday, we’ll see what it does at 12z today, but it’s definitely not encouraging for the northern/northwest suburbs. NYC is the place to be for this one, I can see a very sharp cutoff to next to nothing north of the city, IMO

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, MJO812 said:

We dont know where it goes after 84 hours 

 

The 500 setup looks marginally less progressive than the Euro but it’s still night and day compared to the NAM 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 500 setup looks marginally less progressive than the Euro but it’s still night and day compared to the NAM 

To be fair both of those models are in weenie range 

[mikem81]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We dont know where it goes after 84 hours 

 

[crossbowftw3]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is looking more and more like a NYC and south snowstorm. The op Euro/EPS is deadly in this time frame and has been very consistent since 12z yesterday, we’ll see what it does at 12z today, but it’s definitely not encouraging for the northern/northwest suburbs. NYC is the place to be for this one, I can see a very sharp cutoff to next to nothing north of the city, IMO

Wouldn’t be shocked if it’s more abrupt than currently modeled. Even in January 2016 Middletown still got 5-8 and they’re only an hour SE of me. 

[mikem81]

Just now, mikem81 said:

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, mikem81 said:

If it’s snowing in Atlantic City probably not headed to far north is my guess 

[HVSnowLover]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is looking more and more like a NYC and south snowstorm. The op Euro/EPS is deadly in this time frame and has been very consistent since 12z yesterday, we’ll see what it does at 12z today, but it’s definitely not encouraging for the northern/northwest suburbs. NYC is the place to be for this one, I can see a very sharp cutoff to next to nothing north of the city, IMO

How close to the city do you think the cutoff will be? Hoping at least lower westchester gets into the good snows since we get shafted by storms that favor interior. 

[snywx]

4 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Wouldn’t be shocked if it’s more abrupt than currently modeled. Even in January 2016 Middletown still got 5-8 and they’re only an hour SE of me. 

I got 5-8 flakes lol. I had a dusting. To see 5-8” you had to go down to Warwick 

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

warning level snows on this run for southern part of metro

 

[snywx]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

If it’s snowing in Atlantic City probably not headed to far north is my guess 

Very very rarely does ACY see a big time snow event with NW areas cashing in as well. Coastal areas need to mix to get us into the goods. This is looking like a I-78 south special 

[winterwx21]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

warning level snows on this run for southern part of metro

 

Yeah this RGEM run gets about 6 inches of snow to NYC, and it's still snowing at the end of the run. Obviously a close call on this run though as the NYC area is near the sharp cutoff.

[White Gorilla]

21 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

warning level snows on this run for southern part of metro

 

I will be happy for those folks even if we get nothing up here.  I had 16 inches in Dec.  Someone else's turn now who didn't cash in earlier.