Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[bluewave]

Gorgeous GEM run.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Unless the models are overplaying the confluence to the North this is close to game over North of NYC. Two days ago the GFS had the 700mb low exiting off the NJ coast, now it comes off the coast in Virginia.

You would think the models will trend north with the NAO rising to neutral.

[kat5hurricane]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Gorgeous GEM run.

It took a big step back from what it was showing last night (maybe you were being sarcastic?).  Really bad trends on the GFS and GEM. Add in the EURO missing south last night and this is trending towards a minor event.

[BxEngine]

Just now, bluewave said:

Gorgeous CMC run.

Gorgeous for part of the subforum that doesnt belong here according to the city/south crew. Going by miles from knyc and all....

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

For LI and NJ coast yes, not for anyone else 

There's often heavy snow west and north of where the max QPF axis is. I don't have access to the upper level charts but even the GFS to me seemed like it would get better dynamics and snow north of where it had it. There'll be a long easterly mid level fetch that will bring plenty of moisture in. 

[jm1220]

Just now, MJO812 said:

You would think the models will trend north with the NAO rising to neutral.

The lobes rotating around the confluence that's left will be important. Seems like now there is a lobe developing that will reinforce the confluence. 

[SleetStormNJ]

Way too early for people living and dying by model runs folks.  This still has a good 2 plus day chunk to evolve.  It's like people don't learn from the past and thus repeat this weird self-abusing psychological game.

[TJW014]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Gorgeous GEM run.

 

Just makes me even more jealous I'm not up at home...

[NJwx85]

What a death band if the GGEM was actually considered to be a reliable model that didn't belong in the dumpster.

[justinj]

Major news outlets really sold on a changeover or mix on LI 

[jm1220]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

What a death band if the GGEM was actually considered to be a reliable model that didn't belong in the dumpster.

Which makes it comical how it somehow only has 3-4" of snow in the I-287 area. If anything that may indicate a subsidence area could happen there over my roof on LI. People shouldn't live and die on snow maps.

[snywx]

1 minute ago, justinj said:

Major news outlets really sold on a changeover or mix on LI 

They are prob using old data. Next update should have partly cloudy skies 

[Big Jims Videos]

Canadian is a mix of January 2018/boxing day for coastal sections.  Yes please.  

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, justinj said:

Major news outlets really sold on a changeover or mix on LI 

It can't be discounted. There's still plenty of time for a shift back north. Minor changes in the underlying mid level pattern can lead to significant changes at the surface. Although right now I'd downplay talk of changing over. 

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

What a death band if the GGEM was actually considered to be a reliable model that didn't belong in the dumpster.

I think the 12Z GEM will adjust going forward seems confused takes the low only up to the Delmarva and stalls and moves west slightly - basically its going to come down to where the confluence line is north of us..........BUT warning level snows southern and eastern half of metro

[mikem81]

[NJwx85]

It's very hard to get significant precip up here when you have a positively tilted trough. You can thank the confluence over Northern New England for this. The GFS underplayed the extent of the blocking. The setup now definitely favors the DC to Philly corridor. 

[Yanksfan]

GFS ensembles are way west.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

It's very hard to get significant precip up here when you have a positively tilted trough. You can thank the confluence over Northern New England for this. The GFS underplayed the extent of the blocking. The setup now definitely favors the DC to Philly corridor. 

right now it does - remember a few days ago the setup favored DC with big snows for the previous storm then things changed

[Blizzardo]

Didn't boxing day swing south at this time frame only to return 24 hours out?? Not that it matters but after years of this, you eventually learn that anything can happen up until it starts. It recent years, the models have become a joke..

[NEG NAO]

one thing is more certain then a couple days ago most of the metro is going to be close to 100% snow 

[North and West]

10 minutes ago, SleetStormNJ said:

Way too early for people living and dying by model runs folks.  This still has a good 2 plus day chunk to evolve.  It's like people don't learn from the past and thus repeat this weird self-abusing psychological game.

Literally. Every. Time. Wash, Rinse, Repeat.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Blizzardo said:

Didn't boxing day swing south at this time frame only to return 24 hours out?? Not that it matters but after years of this, you eventually learn that anything can happen up until it starts. It recent years, the models have become a joke..

yes go back to the beginning of this forum - most were losing all hope a few days before............

[HVSnowLover]

10 minutes ago, SleetStormNJ said:

Way too early for people living and dying by model runs folks.  This still has a good 2 plus day chunk to evolve.  It's like people don't learn from the past and thus repeat this weird self-abusing psychological game.

At this point it’s not run it’s an all out trend. They can correct back somewhat but right now this is a SE of I95 special with warning level snow possible to maybe I95 and just NW.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

yes go back to the beginning of this forum - most were losing all hope a few days before............

Jan 2016 did the same thing and thats one of the analogs for this storm. Of course the huge amounts like that storm will not happen. 

[mikem81]

GEFS still pretty robust FWIW

[mikem81]

[HVSnowLover]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's very hard to get significant precip up here when you have a positively tilted trough. You can thank the confluence over Northern New England for this. The GFS underplayed the extent of the blocking. The setup now definitely favors the DC to Philly corridor. 

If confluence is the issue how is NE getting hit hard or you’re not buying  the cmc solution at all? 

[HeadInTheClouds]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's very hard to get significant precip up here when you have a positively tilted trough. You can thank the confluence over Northern New England for this. The GFS underplayed the extent of the blocking. The setup now definitely favors the DC to Philly corridor. 

GFS is garbage. V16 much more plausible. GFS gives NYC metro like .30 LE. Don't think thats happening. GFS ensembles well west of op. 

[mannynyc]

Didn’t we see something similar in the December storm, where models moved south 3 days before the storm and then came back north?