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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.


wdrag
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12Z Cobb Method:        GFS   down to 3" again.      NAM is 25!" ------and it is still snowing at hour 84.           Of course the storm is taking place during the less accurate time frame for the NAM.

Do not think this will be repeated for this same run tomorrow.

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9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Nice shift north on the Euro compared to last night. Gets significant snow, close to a foot, up to NYC. Big jackpot for Ocean county NJ with over 20 inches.

Frankly, I just need something to keep my mind off current events. A decent 4-8 inches will do. But it could be more than that. Or less. We'll see....

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2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Still think with enough ticks the north of 84 crew can get a 3-6/4-8 threat but I think the window for anything more significant is shrinking with every run.

The nw crew is not out of this by any means.  The best banding usually ends up on the nw fringe of decent precip that's modeled.   I don't expect the coast to jackpot.  

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Just now, Rjay said:

The nw crew is not out of this by any means.  The best banding usually ends up on the nw fringe of decent precip that's modeled.   I don't expect the coast to jackpot.  

We’re definitely teetering but you’re right, not out of this yet. I don’t expect a complete fail, though. We will get some of the action, to which degree I don’t know yet.

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5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The nw crew is not out of this by any means.  The best banding usually ends up on the nw fringe of decent precip that's modeled.   I don't expect the coast to jackpot.  

Agreed.  Since the 2000s there have many times where LI was forecast to jackpot, and somehow the jackpot turned out to be north central/even north east jersey over into NY.    LI did great too in these scenarios too (especially to folks with the 80s as a frame of reference), but still.  Only exception I'd add is that magical north central suffolk area that has often rivaled those spots.

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Just now, Rjay said:

The nw crew is not out of this by any means.  The best banding usually ends up on the nw fringe of decent precip that's modeled.   I don't expect the coast to jackpot.  

Yes if this becomes a true old fashioned coastal and tracks NE there will be a nice band somewhere on the nw side of precipitation but depends on exact setup which still isn’t totally determined 

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  • wdrag changed the title to Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.
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