Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[Northof78]

Although not a gimme, I would be shocked if the centerpoint of heaviest snowfall did'nt drift north over next 2 - 2.5 days, similar to Dec storm (and most others)

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Full map fwiw 

Can always increase if needed!!   

[Snowlover11]

LOL! Steve D.  not to knock anyone and should move this to banter but come on really 10-20+? 

[sussexcountyobs]

8 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Full map fwiw 

For the interior, we need a 40-50 mile jog northwest.

[nycwinter]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

LOL! Steve D.  not to knock anyone and should move this to banter but come on really 10-20+? 

zone 3 he says some sleet yet zone 4 more snow and no mention in sleet further down the shore hmm illogical

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, nycwinter said:

zone 3 he says some sleet yet zone 4 more snow and no mention in sleet further down the shore hmm illogical

I was scratching my head about that also?

[Snowlover11]

Just now, nycwinter said:

zone 3 he says some sleet yet zone 4 more snow and no mention in sleet further down the shore hmm illogical

i guess hes really favoring heavy snowfall/lift which would keep the column cold enough to remain all snow.  anyway back to the storm itself and keep individual calls to banter thread.

[jm1220]

I wouldn't go higher than 8-12" anywhere at this point. Still too many variables including where that can be. For inland people, this still can easily trend 50-75 miles or so and put them in the jackpot. Hopefully for MBY it stays as is of course. 

[Brian5671]

all posts about so and so on channel 119 or twitter should go to the vendor thread

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Although not a gimme, I would be shocked if the centerpoint of heaviest snowfall did'nt drift north over next 2 - 2.5 days, similar to Dec storm (and most others)

I'd be very surprised if the jackpots were south. 

[mannynyc]

Thoughts? 

[HVSnowLover]

GFS still looks like it's playing catchup as always but this run was more organized

[SnoSki14]

47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon went north 

Good to see a mix of more northern solutions in there. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, mannylovessnow said:

Thoughts? 

I'd say he's going with Euro.

[jm1220]

Just now, mannylovessnow said:

Thoughts? 

That it should go to the vendor thread that I'll bump in a second

[Blizzardo]

Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

I'd say he's going with Euro.

Yep.. the euro with totals cut in half. He's leaving the 10+ open because it was 2 feet there..

[kat5hurricane]

32 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I think the 3-5 zone is too low, rarely does this setup shut off that close to the city but we’ll see

News stations almost always go conservative to start then bump up or down closer to the event (or sometimes during the event). I wouldn't pay much attention to them.

[MJO812]

Para gfs is a nice hit

Gfs also came north

[MJO812]

Gefs is more north and west

This storm is going to trend more north

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs is more north and west

This storm is going to trend more north

Based off latest guidance I think so too but cautiously optimistic 

[MJO812]

Wow

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow

This is really exploding for NJ but a small north trend would move those totals into NYC

[sussexcountyobs]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow

That 5-6" amount blob north of Ulster county seems odd?

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

That 5-6" amount blob north of Ulster county seems odd?

That’s the Catskills 

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

That’s the Catskills 

I understand fully. But look at the totals surrounding it. This is not an elevation storm, and areas south of there are high elevations also in Ulster. Probably higher I believe.

[HeadInTheClouds]

53 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

not a bad map really, i’d slight move every north and include the city within the 8-12.

Horrible map. I would bet the mortgage NYC sees more than 3-5. 

[justinj]

55 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I think the 3-5 zone is too low, rarely does this setup shut off that close to the city but we’ll see

When was the last time montauk got more snow than say western Suffolk?

[HVSnowLover]

7 minutes ago, justinj said:

When was the last time montauk got more snow than say western Suffolk?

Probably happened but very rare and this isn’t the setup I would expect that 

[NJwx85]

 

[Rjay]

45 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

LOL! Steve D.  not to knock anyone and should move this to banter but come on really 10-20+? 

Why not though?  This has the potential to do so.