Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[Noteaster101]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

Euro anyone?

I’m waiting also

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, Noteaster101 said:

I’m waiting also

Euro is east

[RDRY]

5 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Euro anyone?

Looks awful. Few slushy inches for the immediate coast, then it's out of here. Only area with a decent hit is eastern Massachusetts.

[HeadInTheClouds]

6 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Euro anyone?

Woof. 

[SI Mailman]

Yep, Euro is not good unless you're in Atlantic City.

[HVSnowLover]

Euro and Ukie almost flipped places tonight. I don’t know what to think. 

[RDRY]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Euro and Ukie almost flipped places tonight. I don’t know what to think. 

Model chaos. Par for the course at this lead time.

[winterwx21]

Euro has NYC on the northern edge. Gets a few inches up to NYC. It's very close, as Monmouth county NJ gets 8 inches and Ocean county close to a foot.

[Sn0waddict]

Silence is never a good thing around here lol.  Ehh Euro isn’t what it used to be. Don’t cliffdive over it. Let’s see what tomorrow morning brings.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Euro has NYC on the northern edge. Gets a few inches up to NYC. It's very close, as Monmouth county NJ gets 8 inches and Ocean county close to a foot.

wow at this rate, all that talk of coastal mix will be gone and suppression will be the thing to worry about

 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, RDRY said:

Model chaos. Par for the course at this lead time.

Trust the Euro when it’s consistent but with this storm Euro has not been consistent so for now this an outlier solution but tomorrow will be anxiety provoking lol 

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

Yep, Euro is not good unless you're in Atlantic City.

You don't have to go all the way down to Atlantic City to get into good snow on tonight's Euro. Northern Ocean county gets 10 inches of snow. Not that far away ... just need a slight north shift on the Euro.

[Heisy]

Outlier right now, will it be a trend setter or a blip, find out at 6z

[KeithB]

Euro is a disaster. This is looking like a Baltimore-Washington DC corridor special.

[Nibor]

This is part of the problem.

[RU848789]

20 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Euro and Ukie almost flipped places tonight. I don’t know what to think. 

Kind of, although the Euro was still much better than the 12Z UK, which was a complete whiff N of 276/195.  

 

[RDRY]

8 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Kind of, although the Euro was still much better than the 12Z UK, which was a complete whiff N of 276/195.  

 

The latest Ukie was well north.

[USCG RS]

34 minutes ago, RDRY said:

The latest Ukie was well north.

The upper levels on the 00z Euro do not quite support MSLP. 

The phase is just a hair off also. I would be interested to see the ensembles and I would say that the Euro is off kilter currently. 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, RDRY said:

The latest Ukie was well north.

I know - the poster I was responding to was comparing the 12Z UK and 0Z Euro...

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, USCG RS said:

The upper levels on the 00z Euro do not quite support MSLP. 

The phase is just a hair off also. I would be interested to see the ensembles and I would say that the Euro is off kilter currently. 

The EPS looks the same. Agrees with the Euro operational

[SnoSki14]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The EPS looks the same. Agrees with the Euro operational

Shocker that you're saying it's a miss. 

The Euro is an outlier. 

I do think the cut off will be tight but NYC south will do fine. 

[wdrag]

fwiw: coms problems somewhere. Some of the WPC probabilistic and D4-7 not displaying properly and the GFS 06z V16 is running a tad late. 

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The EPS looks the same. Agrees with the Euro operational

Euro was very close.  

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro was very close.  

For NYC maybe, areas to the north and west don’t look good. But look at the new ICON, GFS, and even the NAM at the end of its run, they are all going south now like the Euro/EPS. The 12z Ukie was the start of the trend

[MJO812]

Pars gfs 

Regular gefs was a tick west

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

For NYC maybe, areas to the north and west don’t look good. But look at the new ICON, GFS, and even the NAM at the end of its run, they are all going south now like the Euro/EPS. The 12z Ukie was the start of the trend

Did you look at the 0z ukie ? Come on.

[Big Jims Videos]

Mt Holly snow map.  Focusing on Monmouth/Ocean for now 

[sussexcountyobs]

Problem is that upper level low in the north Atlantic. Models are picking up on its southwest arm moving further south and west. Hence our  storm will be forced to form further south and go east.

[wdrag]

No modeling insights: Drew my conclusions from modeling consensus. Patience needed.  

554AM Friday 1/29: 00z06z/29 GEFS/00z/29 GEPS are the heavies including 00z-06z/29 V16 and now the 00z/29 UKMET. Yikes? Where is the EPS? SO... big snowstorm potential but rather than overcommit, especially since WPC followed the EPS downgrade fairly close. Still 3 days away. Watch the NAM trends... this is it's game, imo. 

NOT much change from previous due to still variable model solutions. Left rain in for LI and I95 sewd sometime Monday afternoon-early Tue?; changed ice to ice pellets, and held onto wind event which would probably be restricted to the coasts. Added coastal flooding: too long a duration of gale force ne winds acting upon an astronomically normal tide will result in a substantial surge. Coastal flooding could be multiple high tide cycles beginning midday Monday through midday Tuesday and current outlooks are for the greatest threat with the midnight Monday night high tide cycle. Minor coastal flooding seems probable for one of the high tide cycles, but moderate not out of the question.  Stay tuned to NWS products as we draw closer

Timing  UNCERTAIN: Held the 31st for the start in our forum,  but probably restricted to PA/NJ/LI, with the heaviest snow there slated for sometime Monday before a possible dry slot changes to mixed pcpn parts of the I95 corridor?. The I84 region may have to wait til  sunrise Monday  and I90 possibly til Monday afternoon?? Not worried about the ending yet, since first it has to start, but probably bands circling south and southeastward through at least part of Tuesday. 

EPS/EC 12z/28 and 00z/289 surprisingly southeast of multiple op's and ensembles. WPC overnight responded southeastward. The upcoming planned March implementation of the GFS v16 was quite robust again on the 00z and a bit less so on the 06z/29 cycle so rather than shift too far south and have to go back north, am holding onto a widespread snowstorm. Best axis: ? unknown. Long duration, especially NJ/PA. There could be heavy snow in the comma head deformation zone north of modeled qpf, but far too early to find consensus on the comma head, due to modeling differences. 

Not a major concern but monitoring for WET 32-33F snow near the coasts... not going into this any further till we have consensus on temps/amounts. 

[MJO812]

6z RGEM is a tick west from the 0z run