Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[mikem81]

GS not looking to good for NW areas as well. Not really great for anyone

[Brian5671]

Just now, mikem81 said:

GS not looking to good for NW areas as well. Not really great for anyone

very disjointed with the precip field....meh verbatim.

[HVSnowLover]

6 minutes ago, snywx said:

Very very rarely does ACY see a big time snow event with NW areas cashing in as well. Coastal areas need to mix to get us into the goods. This is looking like a I-78 south special 

This definitely trended south models were 42 in ACY a few days ago. I hope it’s just not too far south that even the immediate to metro area doesn’t cash in. 

[MJO812]

Looks like a tamer version of Feb 2010

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Looks like a tamer version of Feb 2010

DC snapping the streak in a big way 

[Brian5671]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Looks like a tamer version of Feb 2010

the phase is gone, the arctic air is on the way out-this is trending towards a dud presently.  Still early but not a great trend the last 24 hrs

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, crossbowftw3 said:

DC snapping the streak in a big way 

Still 3 days out but yes at minimum they should get hit with the overrunning 

 

actually 2 days out for them so yes they are in good shape 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

the phase is gone, the arctic air is on the way out-this is trending towards a dud presently.  Still early but not a great trend the last 24 hrs

Not a dud just south congrats MD to Central NJ?

[Brian5671]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Not a dud just south congrats MD to Central NJ?

Mostly out of this subforum except C NJ

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Mostly out of this subforum except C NJ

I guess you didn't look what happened with the last storm. Boston got 5 inches which they wasn't even supposed to get.

[NEG NAO]

what is interesting is 12Z GFS has transfer to basically the same position as 12Z NAM beginning at 60 hours

[Brian5671]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I guess you didn't look what happened with the last storm. Boston got 5 inches which they wasn't even supposed to get.

this is nothing like the last storm...

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Mostly out of this subforum except C NJ

Hopefully NAM is correct about getting good snows pretty far north up into CT.

[Brian5671]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

Hopefully NAM is correct about getting good snows pretty far north up into CT.

yeah it's not in its useful range yet (48 hrs or less)  NE forum note NAM also has a NW bias in the long range

[NEG NAO]

[TJW014]

Would the "warm" ocean temperatures be an issue for coastal NJ? I think it might be another sharp cutoff east of the GSP. 

[mikem81]

GFSv16 looks nothing like GFS (not shocking)....

[mikem81]

[mikem81]

[jm1220]

Just now, CarLover014 said:

Would the "warm" ocean temperatures be an issue for coastal NJ? I think it might be another sharp cutoff east of the GSP. 

It isn’t as much a problem this time vs in December when there was practically no snow south of Sandy Hook. But a long NE fetch would likely warm the surface up especially south of Asbury Park. 

[gravitylover]

18 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I will be happy for those folks even if we get nothing up here.  I had 16 inches in Dec.  Someone else's turn now who didn't cash in earlier. 

Nah

[jm1220]

I’m not worried about anything the GFS shows for coastal storms at this range. It can comically catch onto the consensus 24 hours out or even less. We just have to hope the confluence isn’t too strong. 

[mikem81]

[mikem81]

[cleetussnow]

Trends are south plainly.  Within 4 days, must be taken seriously.  

[HVSnowLover]

Cmc caved. 20 inch jackpot to western fringe but somehow hits NE good after missing us 

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

GFSv16 looks nothing like GFS (not shocking)....

Looks like it will be a good upgrade.

 

 

[jm1220]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Cmc caved. 20 inch jackpot to western fringe but somehow hits NE good after missing us 

To me it still looked good for many of us.

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, jm1220 said:

To me it still looked good for many of us.

For LI and NJ coast yes, not for anyone else 

[NJwx85]

Unless the models are overplaying the confluence to the North this is close to game over North of NYC. Two days ago the GFS had the 700mb low exiting off the NJ coast, now it comes off the coast in Virginia.