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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.


wdrag
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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That 12z solution would help to restore some balance to our recent snowfall distribution. We went from 09-10 to 10-11 with a decent balance in snowfall outcomes across our forum. Then the jackpots It shifted over to Long Island from 12-13 to 17-18. Since 18-19, the interior has been grabbing all the jackpots. 

It's called climo. We jackpot up here in Orange Cty because we average 50+ inches of snow a year with elevation. Pounding CNJ one storm isn't any sort of redistribution. It is a by chance large storm that basically makes up most of their seasonal total. You are not going to average more than the NW high ground for more than 1 winter of suppression. One can argue NYC has had an unusually snowy decade and is due for several snowless winters to make up for the averages recent inflation

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2 minutes ago, Wxnyc said:

major radio stations In NYC keep on repeating themselves about mixing and changing to rain in the city on the coast more north west what the heck are they looking at?

Pretty much the template winter storm forecast since the 1970s. “Yada yada changing to rain in the city heavy snow north and west” 

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3 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said:

It's called climo. We jackpot up here in Orange Cty because we average 50+ inches of snow a year with elevation. Pounding CNJ one storm isn't any sort of redistribution. It is a by chance large storm that basically makes up most of their seasonal total. You are not going to average more than the NW high ground for more than 1 winter of suppression. One can argue NYC has had an unusually snowy decade and is due for several snowless winters to make up for the averages recent inflation

We’re overdue for lousy winters down here for sure which I’ve said before. There’s been 1” here across a few “events” since the 12/17 storm and we’re less than 1/3 to seasonal average snow. This one isn’t nailed down yet by any means. Hopefully there’s a way we all get crushed. 

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34 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There's often heavy snow west and north of where the max QPF axis is. I don't have access to the upper level charts but even the GFS to me seemed like it would get better dynamics and snow north of where it had it. There'll be a long easterly mid level fetch that will bring plenty of moisture in. 

Yes I hope the easterly flow can get good precip at least to I287 it sure gets warm air in up to that line on the other type of storms LOL 

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29 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We’re overdue for lousy winters down here for sure which I’ve said before. There’s been 1” here across a few “events” since the 12/17 storm and we’re less than 1/3 to seasonal average snow. This one isn’t nailed down yet by any means. Hopefully there’s a way we all get crushed. 

Truly waiting for that pan forum one foot plus for all storm. 

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Of course it does if you live in nyc metro LOL j/k 

reason I feel that way about the UKIE is the overall distribution of the precip considering its an offshore storm near the benchmark - nothing looks crazy on that map

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

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6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea I see what you are saying except the gap in eastern CT looks a bit odd 

Snow maps again shouldn't be taken too seriously but there will be areas where dynamics are maxed out and once the low starts occluding the snow will be more spotty and banded/shredded. So that could be what causes it in E CT. 

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Snow maps again shouldn't be taken too seriously but there will be areas where dynamics are maxed out and once the low starts occluding the snow will be more spotty and banded/shredded. So that could be what causes it in E CT. 

Yeah the occlusion rate of speed as I said in the SNE forum is another factor.  The GFS occludes too fast while the CMC i think occludes too slow.  As a result much of this forum probably should have gotten less snow in the CMC depiction than the model actually spat out.  In general occlusion will occur a bit later than models indicate with these systems here  

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Very odd 500 MB not a typical big storm set-up.  You want to see tighter pack hight lines and negative tilt.  We can still see some snow on the I-95 but with the southern weaker trend at 500 MB the chances for heavy snow odds in jeopardy.  It is still way to early to project totals and sometimes the models do bring back the big storms like the Boxing Day storm.

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All that I can add is that NOTHING is written in stone with literally 3 days before game time and to live and die with each run,,,,well you guys should know better. I love the discussions but trends are one thing and even a novice like myself respects them and takes them into consideration but the models could just as easily shift back North and or West as we get closer to game time as some ALWAYS DO,,,,my 2 cents but this is far from a done deal

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  • wdrag changed the title to Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.
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