Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[HVSnowLover]

29 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The "dual-max" with QPF min in the middle may be a concern. The initial energy/overrunning max out SW of us and then eastern New England gets pummeled with the easterly flow around the low. Still way too far out to bank on anything but it's a look I've been noticing today. Regardless I don't see this getting squashed way south of here. A 12/17-like outcome where we near the shore worry about the dryslot and warm air is significantly more likely IMO (maybe not the most likely, that's vs. too suppressed)

Agree about getting caught in between max QPF. Right now the southern section of the max QPF looks to reach central NJ and possibly up to LI/NYC but it's something to keep an eye on.  Will also be dependent on track especially track of the mid level low.  

[wdrag]

I have no answers... just a messenger... 12z/28 NAEFS slightly slower which fits the ensembles you've seen. Just as cold but with BL temp problems LI-PHL.  NAEFS is a good look for the I95s corridor PHL-BOS with the usual I95 sewd uncertainty. 

[Lawnguyland]

fwiw NWS took  mentions of rain out of sun to tues forecast for nassau county l.i..    

[wdrag]

More messenger: NWS is tightening the collaboration with CPC.  Note the changes ne USA issued around 3P.  Suspect the story headline changes tomorrow afternoon from W coast to the eastern USA, so NJ-PA-MD-VA's EM not surprised Monday morning, going home for the weekend. OKX has had 6" in its HWO since early this morning, which i think a good move. 

PHI has gone to the enhanced HWO color coded...not good imo in that it won't flag snow potential beyond 72 hours.  However, it is what the NWS is gravitating to so that leaves forums/private sector available to attempt to fill the gap. 

They do have one graphic out: It's recently added since 3P and attached. No EM briefing package yet, nor do I expect today. 

 

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, NJsnow89 said:

Eps just came in south. Hopefully not a trend to the ukie. 

As I said a couple of days back.  This won’t whiff for most of this forum but I would rather be here than New England.  This is an unusual case where you have a Miller B type setup and someone between Wilmington and NYC is probably going to see the biggest amounts 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

As I said a couple of days back.  This won’t whiff for most of this forum but I would rather be here than New England.  This is an unusual case where you have a Miller B type setup and someone between Wilmington and NYC is probably going to see the biggest amounts 

what are the chances this gets vertically stacked?

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree about getting caught in between max QPF. Right now the southern section of the max QPF looks to reach central NJ and possibly up to LI/NYC but it's something to keep an eye on.  Will also be dependent on track especially track of the mid level low.  

well hopefully this gets vertically stacked and the track of the mid level low becomes a nonfactor

[North and West]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

well hopefully this gets vertically stacked and the track of the mid level low becomes a nonfactor

Can you explain what this is to me like we're trying buy up shares of obsolete retail video game cartridge companies from our basements?

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

what are the chances this gets vertically stacked?

At the moment it seems to just have too broad a circulation at the mid and upper levels.  This doesn’t look like a KU to me at the moment, just a big snow event where many places might see 8-12 inches or something along those lines.  I’ve felt that before though in recent years and it seems there’s always death bands forming nowadays 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

At the moment it seems to just have too broad a circulation at the mid and upper levels.  This doesn’t look like a KU to me at the moment, just a big snow event where many places might see 8-12 inches or something along those lines.  I’ve felt that before though in recent years and it seems there’s always death bands forming nowadays 

right this actually reminds me of the February 1994 events.  Although what is and isn't a KU event can be open to interpretation.... I imagine by KU event you mean NESIS 3 and higher?

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, North and West said:

Can you explain what this is to me like we're trying buy up shares of obsolete retail video game cartridge companies from our basements?

https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=vertically stacked system
Vertically Stacked System
A low-pressure system, usually a closed low or cutoff low, which is not tilted with height, i.e., located similarly at all levels of the atmosphere. Such systems typically are weakening and are slow-moving, and are less likely to produce severe weather than tilted systems. However, cold pools aloft associated with vertically-stacked systems may enhance instability enough to produce severe weather.
http://lukemweather.blogspot.com/2011/09/stacked-low.html
https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/vertically-stacked-low.17344/
https://www.extremestorms.com.au/glossary/vertically-stacked-system/
A low-pressure system, usually a closed low or cutoff low, which is not tilted with height, i.e., located similarly at all levels of the atmosphere.

 

These are my favorite types of storms, something special about vertical stacking that satisfies the perfectionist in me.

 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

right this actually reminds me of the February 1994 events.  Although what is and isn't a KU event can be open to interpretation.... I imagine by KU event you mean NESIS 3 and higher?

 

A few Mets from here on Twitter were talking yesterday that this doesn’t really remind us of any storm.  We’ve seen plenty of events like this where the shortwave comes out of Manitoba and dives into the mid Atlantic or traverses the plains on a WSW to ENE or SW to NE trajectory to the MA.  But seeing one take A SW-NE track from the Rockies to the Midwest then drop ESE into the MA kicking off overrunning snow there there but keeping PHL/NYC sry before turning up the coast is one I don’t really remember and they couldn’t either 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

As I said a couple of days back.  This won’t whiff for most of this forum but I would rather be here than New England.  This is an unusual case where you have a Miller B type setup and someone between Wilmington and NYC is probably going to see the biggest amounts 

could be that the highest amounts are between Wilmington and NYC but away from the coast.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

A few Mets from here on Twitter were talking yesterday that this doesn’t really remind us of any storm.  We’ve seen plenty of events like this where the shortwave comes out of Manitoba and dives into the mid Atlantic or traverses the plains on a WSW to ENE or SW to NE trajectory to the MA.  But seeing one take A SW-NE track from the Rockies to the Midwest then drop ESE into the MA kicking off overrunning snow there there but keeping PHL/NYC sry before turning up the coast is one I don’t really remember and they couldn’t either 

wow I cant think of any matching that description either....might have to go back to the early part of the century.  I'd like to see someone do a detailed analysis of the strange storm that happened in Feb 1920 and lasted for 3 days.

 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, wdrag said:

More messenger: NWS is tightening the collaboration with CPC.  Note the changes ne USA issued around 3P.  Suspect the story headline changes tomorrow afternoon from W coast to the eastern USA, so NJ-PA-MD-VA's EM not surprised Monday morning, going home for the weekend. OKX has had 6" in its HWO since early this morning, which i think a good move. 

PHI has gone to the enhanced HWO color coded...not good imo in that it won't flag snow potential beyond 72 hours.  However, it is what the NWS is gravitating to so that leaves forums/private sector available to attempt to fill the gap. 

They do have one graphic out: It's recently added since 3P and attached. No EM briefing package yet, nor do I expect today. 

 

you'd think they'd mention snow to mix to more snow as being more likely if they were indeed going to go that route like we had back in December.  According to the graphics posted, this looks to track further offshore than the Dec storm.

 

[North and West]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

right this actually reminds me of the February 1994 events.  Although what is and isn't a KU event can be open to interpretation.... I imagine by KU event you mean NESIS 3 and higher?

 

On my all-time favorite storm list. 

[HVSnowLover]

I'm starting to think North of I84 may get shafted with this but then we also thought that in December and the jackpot was Binghamton to Albany lol

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I'm starting to think North of I84 may get shafted with this but then we also thought that in December and the jackpot was Binghamton to Albany lol

Doesn’t really seem to be much consensus between the globals at the moment. Northern areas are still in the game. 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, North and West said:

On my all-time favorite storm list. 

first time I'd seen snow that heavy in about a decade!  March 1993 was great too, but changed to sleet and rain here by the time precip rates got truly heavy.  The thundersnow from the first Feb 1994 event was something to behold- 2-4 inches per hour made it seem like an avalanche was falling from the sky!

 

[Northof78]

GFS south, but still good for the forum

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Doesn’t really seem to be much consensus between the globals at the moment. Northern areas are still in the game. 

one of these days we're going to have a storm where the mix line and the shaft line are within blocks from each other lol.

the width of wintry precip seems to be getting narrower every year.

 

[HVSnowLover]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

one of these days we're going to have a storm where the mix line and the shaft line are within blocks from each other lol.

the width of wintry precip seems to be getting narrower every year.

 

Yea mixing on LI but barely any precipitation north of I84 on 18z gfs. Maybe it’s wrong but definitely to be trend of more narrow zone of wintry precip. 

[sussexcountyobs]

10 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

GFS south, but still good for the forum

Not liking these south trends at all on the models today.

[HVSnowLover]

Unfortunately as seems often the case the best dynamics are further southwest. Seems Central PA is the place to be lately for storms lol as they are far enough south for overrunning precip not to dry up and don't have ocean influence.  

[MJO812]

Para

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Unfortunately as seems often the case the best dynamics are further southwest. Seems Central PA is the place to be lately for storms lol as they are far enough south for overrunning precip not to dry up and don't have ocean influence.  

I guess this is how you have suppressed systems that aren't all that great for coastal areas either.

[Wannabehippie]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Pars

Overdone IMHO.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Overdone IMHO.

How? It all depends on the ccb and how far west it comes. 

[sussexcountyobs]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Pars

Where do I sign?

[HeadInTheClouds]

25 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea mixing on LI but barely any precipitation north of I84 on 18z gfs. Maybe it’s wrong but definitely to be trend of more narrow zone of wintry precip. 

I doubt the GFS is right, precip is so meager. Gfs gives me 2-3 and V16 gives me 12, 15 if you use kuchera.