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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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BxEngine
BxEngine

1/2” of hair spray, coating of spray tan, 3” of creatine. 

Isotherm
Isotherm

The macro-scale physical forcing agents are conducive. After most of January +PNA/-NAO in the means and a few missed opportunities, favorability tends to reach a point of culmination during significan

Rjay
Rjay

Watching snowman19 spam the weenie reactions is quite something.  

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Without blocking its cutters with blocking its suppression? 

The Pacific was totally uncooperative with our blocking which meant the storm today going out to sea, or it relaxed at the wrong times which meant the storm that fell apart for us and hit I-90 instead. This wave looks more vigorous and should reach our area at least with good precip but maybe I’m wrong to think it will and it will be shunted out like the storm today off VA. Still plenty of room for changes. 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
Just now, eduggs said:

The NAM still looks like it would have a sharp cutoff near the NY - NJ border as the initial overrunning dissipates and activity switches towards the Delmarva. 

The 00Z NAM tells me if you’re NYC south you’re probably okay beyond 84.  North of that I’m not sure sure.  The 18Z euro you could argue could be a complete miss.  Obviously the EPS wasn’t but the 18Z op Euro might have been a total miss extrapolated 

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

The GFS looks really good as is. But it might not be picking up some mesoscale banding on the NW side of the stalled low. And it might be a little warm at the surface. But regardless it still shows a major long duration event. There's clearly concern that the initial WAA precipitation might not make it very far northeast and then how far NW does the most intense precip. from the developing coastal low make it... and where is the pivot?  700mb and 850mb lows move very little for 12-24 hours! Someone should really cash in.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The ICON has about 1.5 - 2.6" liquid across the area. I think that's overdone, but it's not far fetched if the event plays out as depicted. Could be at least 12:1 ratios for part of the event. Of course there could be a lot of compaction over 2 days.

Cmc is insane

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NorthShoreWx

NorthShoreWx

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, sussexcountyobs said:

True. But what does that have to do with precip types during a storm? I can see urban development and heat island effect keeping near ground surface temps warmer on a cold clear night. But it will have no effect during a coastal storm. Maybe on accumulation, but not on what's falling from the sky.

Nothing to do with UHI or clear nights.  Some storms are all snow, some mix, etc.  OP was very specific on what he thinks about the beaches, which was wrong.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
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5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The GFS looks really good as is. But it might not be picking up some mesoscale banding on the NW side of the stalled low. And it might be a little warm at the surface. But regardless it still shows a major long duration event. There's clearly concern that the initial WAA precipitation might not make it very far northeast and then how far NW does the most intense precip. from the developing coastal low make it... and where is the pivot?  700mb and 850mb lows move very little for 12-24 hours! Someone should really cash in.

I wouldn't be worried about small details like where banding shows up right now, as long as the evolution overall looks good aloft the rest should fall into place.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

2+ liquid most of the area on the Canadian. That's about 24 hours of light to moderate snow and 12 hours of moderate to heavy snow. We should assume that it won't play out that perfectly. 

The ensembles show a reasonably wide range of solutions. This is far to one side of average likelihood... but still not quite the best case scenario. 

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, NJsnow89 said:

Unfortunately, and I know no one wants to hear this, but the writing is on the wall with this one. As we get closer, every storm has gotten away from us, and this is no different. 

You say the same shit no matter what.   It's gotten super old.  You're like the anti-metsfan.  

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  • wdrag changed the title to Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.
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