Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[NJwx85]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Depends for where. Might be some mixing issues Jersey coast, south shore, eastern LI (but those areas often mix) 

If you live on the ocean you should expect mixing issues period. It comes with the territory. 

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

If you live on the ocean you should expect mixing issues period. It comes with the territory. 

That’s only recent since the 18-19 winter. Most people don’t realize that ISP and other parts of LI  did much better in snowfall from 09-10 to 17-18 than NYC did. Long Island P-Types are storm track dependent. We had many storms over this period that were mostly snow.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

That’s only recent since the 18-19 winter. Most people don’t realize that ISP and other parts of LI  did much better in snowfall from 09-10 to 17-18 than NYC did. Long Island P-Types are storm track dependent. We had many storms over this period that were mostly snow.

The last few winters have been a correction back towards the norm and away from the anomaly that was the last 10+ years.

[bluewave]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

The last few winters have been a correction back towards the norm and away from the anomaly that was the last 10+ years.

Who knows what’s normal anymore with our snowfall patterns.

[North and West]

 

 

13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

If you live on the ocean you should expect mixing issues period. It comes with the territory. 

 

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The last few winters have been a correction back towards the norm and away from the anomaly that was the last 10+ years.

 

Our memories are short and biases real. It's why means and averages exist.

 

I don't wish to see anyone not get what they want, but nature doesn't care. I mean, @MMU, my entire childhood I was annoyed with the higher elevations that I could see any time I was on Route 10. Then, we got hit more than they did in the past 15 years or so. 

 

[HVSnowLover]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The last few winters have been a correction back towards the norm and away from the anomaly that was the last 10+ years.

It comes in waves but yes growing up what we have seen since 2018 is way more the norm than the nice stretch for the coast 2010-2018

[Big Jims Videos]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

If you live on the ocean you should expect mixing issues period. It comes with the territory. 

May through September makes it all worthwhile living at the beach.  Anyways, yes I am concerned about mixing or dryslotting with a low that tucked against Assateague Island as shown on the GFS despite it ticking south.  

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Big Jims Videos said:

May through September makes it all worthwhile living at the beach.  Anyways, yes I am concerned about mixing or dryslotting with a low that tucked against Assateague Island as shown on the GFS despite it ticking south.  

I love the Jersey shore but it's not an ideal place to be during a snowstorm in NYC. Usually if it's going to snow big in South Jersey areas further North miss out or are fringed.

[hudsonvalley21]

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I love the Jersey shore but it's not an ideal place to be during a snowstorm in NYC. Usually if it's going to snow big in South Jersey areas further North miss out or are fringed.

Wdrag mentioned a few posts ago about above normal SST’s off NJ/DE might come into play to some extent. We’ll see. 

[MJO812]

Euro will be east of 0z

[mattinpa]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro will be east of 0z

How much more south? That was the concern with the Ukie.

[NJwx85]

The Euro looks South so far.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The Euro looks South so far.

 

[NJwx85]

Congrats Central Jersey on the Euro. Almost nothing on Sunday and the coastal moves East much faster.

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

How much more south? That was the concern with the Ukie.

I haven't seen the maps myself but it sounds like the ukie was a miss. Euro isn't a miss.

[NJwx85]

It's still a pretty good run for NYC proper but a sharp cutoff for NW areas.

[NJwx85]

Just now, Nibor said:

I haven't seen the maps myself but it sounds like the ukie was a miss. Euro isn't a miss.

The UKIE was a complete whiff. The Euro is not as far North as the GFS but it's nowhere near the UKMET.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's still a pretty good run for NYC proper but a sharp cutoff for NW areas.

Philly crushed

Wow this storm just sits and spins

[NJwx85]

It's still an inch plus of liquid from about I-78 South.

[NJwx85]

Lots of wraparound snows on Tuesday with the occluding low.

[jm1220]

Just goes to show a whole range of options still on the table. The evolution of the upper low and the blocking will determine who gets what. 

[Allsnow]

Euro is a absolute beast! 1-2 feet along 95 

[Brian5671]

another day another solution-still 3-4 days away so can't really lock anything in right now....

[NJsnow89]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Euro is a absolute beast! 1-2 feet along 95 

Sharp cutoff for the NW crew

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Euro is a absolute beast! 1-2 feet along 95 

It's a great storm for areas from I-78 South and a nail bitter for areas further North.

[MJO812]

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, NJsnow89 said:

Sharp cutoff for the NW crew

This is true. I think ratios will be higher than 10:1 N and W. Climatology is 12:1 where I am in MHV and could be higher. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Sharp cutoff for the NW crew

always seems to be the case and then there ends up a monster snow band on the NW fringe

[wdrag]

Internet slow here in nw NJ. Another WPC placeholder till we all can fully evaluate all the modeling. This is the 12z/28 WPC D4-8, may be difficult to view? It's not yet updated on normal displays there, but my interp...they are going more and more in, certainly more likely than the 00z/28 stat version off D4-8.  

[White Gorilla]

20 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

This is true. I think ratios will be higher than 10:1 N and W. Climatology is 12:1 where I am in MHV and could be higher. 

Even with this solution, I will be ok with just a few inches up here.  Better than nothing.  Enjoy for those who get a foot plus