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stormtracker

Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

His overview of the event sounds surprisingly accurate and underhyped.

Famous last words, but I feel like the forecast, for my yard at least, is fairly stable. Couple-few hours of decent snow Monday evening, then some sleet, probably ended by quite a long time of light rain with temps between 30-34. 

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Famous last words, but I feel like the forecast, for my yard at least, is fairly stable. Couple-few hours of decent snow Monday evening, then some sleet, probably ended by quite a long time of light rain with temps between 30-34. 

well if its 30-31 wouldn't be -FRZA?  ;)

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Famous last words, but I feel like the forecast, for my yard at least, is fairly stable. Couple-few hours of decent snow Monday evening, then some sleet, probably ended by quite a long time of light rain with temps between 30-34. 

12z NAM is warm upstairs as the precip comes in, but it cools to right around 0c at 850 as the precip gets going. Probably snow/sleet before it transitions to freezing rain/rain.

Its even pretty good over here, and has the best area of front end snow in extreme NE MD. SE PA, into NJ. Interesting. Hints of some drier air from the NE and some evap cooling maybe.

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Just now, CAPE said:

12z NAM is warm upstairs as the precip comes in, but it cools to right around 0c at 850 as the precip gets going. Probably snow/sleet before it transitions to freezing rain/rain.

Its even pretty good over here, and has the best area of snow in extreme NE MD. SE PA, into NJ. Interesting.

Yeah, 850s bump north into PA but then drop back a bit w the arrival of heavier precip. Starting to key in on at least some front end frozen before light rain.

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Nam would be a pretty sig event....much colder run.  Pretty much .75" - 1" qpf areawide with a lot of places remaining well below freezing for the duration.  Would be nice to see the colder trend continue today.

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Just now, snowfan said:

Yeah, 850s bump north into PA but then drop back a bit w the arrival of heavier precip. Starting to key in on at least some front end frozen before light rain.

I know these surface p-type maps tend to be wonky, but it aligns with the cooling aloft.

1611619200-bBOu38bvSdo.png

1611640800-HtGlGFAV1w0.png

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Our shot at frozen is very dependent on the intensity of precip as it comes in. Much better/more expansive eastward on the NAM this run. 

 

1611630000-b71zt8UD2ic.png

1611630000-A4Oixsx92kM.png

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Just now, CAPE said:

And no I dont believe that blue over my yard. 

I have been NAMed tho, such that it is with an event like this lol.

Nice little appetizer ahead of Thursday 

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Just now, CAPE said:

We can hope!

I’ll be happy with anything frozen. 

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I’m just hoping the 850’s are a bit colder than forecast or at least the cold is deep enough for sleet instead of ice.

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2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Much more realistic than the 12km NAM, which gives us a foot of snow. FYI i'm back from my little break, but I'll just be lurking and checking out the other thread.

That is the 12k NAM.

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In 15 years of living in the city I can't recall ever seeing ice accretion due to freezing rain.. I look forward to this event! 

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8 minutes ago, H2O said:

Unless surface is trending colder those ice maps are bogus as hell

Yeah that's not happening.

The deal is getting heavier precip at the beginning, and maximizing on frozen. Once it goes to rain, with temps at 32, its just rain.

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Remember that any freezing rain accumulation map is simply tallying rain falling with a sfc temp at or below 32;   it is NOT a measure of how much ice will accrete on surfaces.    Looking at the NAM and NAM nest, the temperature during Monday stays at or just above freezing before the precip arrives and then drops to or just below freezing after the precip arrives.    This usually is not a recipe for significant ice accumulation on roads, sidewalks, etc....  although it can accumulate on trees in that scenario.    The only place in the NAM where sfc temps fall a few degrees below freezing is far northern MD.

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GFS doesn’t look like much in the way of frozen sans the favored areas. 
 

ETA 32 and rain will likely just result in glazed trees. 

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Gfs is kinda a nothing burger wrt snow. It confined the heavy banding south across central VA where it’s just rain. Pretty paltry precip up to the north where it would be cold enough.  That’s why the warmer result. 

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30 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

In 15 years of living in the city I can't recall ever seeing ice accretion due to freezing rain.. I look forward to this event! 

We have def had ice storms in NW over the past 15 years. It was more than 15 years ago, but there was a huge one in 99’.

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