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stormtracker

Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

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16 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

nam-218-all-ma-total_snow_kuchera-1662400.thumb.png.e143ccb810d86b300b3fd5567f0c9b0a.png

Don’t do it y’all. The NAM always has that one run to get you excited just to make the fail hurt worse. I Don’t begrudge it, that’s the whole reason for its existence.  

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

E/E rule?

NAM is still at range really. Precip starts in about 40-45 hours. I’d like to see those thermals hold or cool a bit, but 2-3” with some crust works for me. I’d also take the 5.5” the 12z euro gave me.

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4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Wasn’t it the NAM that red flagged an earlier storm and everyone discounted it showing rain?  Hopefully it will work in reverse with this storm.

Yes, the December storm. Can’t remember how far out it had that run where everything changed.  It’s worth noting that this is a pretty big change too, in the upper levels.

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8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Wasn’t it the NAM that red flagged an earlier storm and everyone discounted it showing rain?  Hopefully it will work in reverse with this storm.

Yes, I posted this yesterday. When the globals were still showing significant snow accums for the big dec storm the nam had clued in on the r/s boundary being sharp and along 95 generally. It got it right.

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7 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'll take the 00z NAM and run... yes please.  I'll take the Euro as well... and yes... EE rule lol

I remember at PSU in the late 90s when we had model diagnostic discussions in the weather station with Jon Nese and he didn’t trust that “new ETA model” and relied on the NGM. Then twice in a row the ETA schooled him/it and he changed his tune lol. Now I feel super old. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I remember at PSU in the late 90s when we had model diagnostic discussions in the weather station with Jon Nese and he didn’t trust that “new ETA model” and relied on the NGM. Then twice in a row the ETA schooled him/it and he changed his tune lol. Now I feel super old

Don't worry...I recall the old Eta model...and actually using the NGM while working at a private forecasting company many years ago!!

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I remember super storm 93 they forecasted this big snow storm almost 2 weeks out. then a week out they were calling for a blizzard. Makes one wonder how they could forecast that accurate a week out back in 93. Now its like they cant tell you whats going to happen they say its to early to tell on a lot of news stations. 

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1 minute ago, Ruin said:

I remember super storm 93 they forecasted this big snow storm almost 2 weeks out. then a week out they were calling for a blizzard. Makes one wonder how they could forecast that accurate a week out back in 93. Now its like they cant tell you whats going to happen they say its to early to tell on a lot of news stations. 

The Superstorm was a perfect setup. That’s why it was probably a one in 100-200 year storm. I would think that setup is easy for models. Just like the severe outbreak in 2011. An absolutely perfect setup. Made the forecasting of it easy.

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maybe true but in 96 I got another big snow even bigger then 93. 93 for me was like 25 inchs 96 was 28. but the overall coverage I think went to the 93 storm. Also for march the storm had like 2 weeks of crazy cold weather.

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GFS still wants no part in any type of front end snow thump.  I’d side with the Euro/NAM thermals at this range though IMO.
Gfs is broken bro. It can't even give us snow with a 981 at Hatteras and cad lol
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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
5 minutes ago, nj2va said:
GFS still wants no part in any type of front end snow thump.  I’d side with the Euro/NAM thermals at this range though IMO.

Gfs is broken bro. It can't even give us snow with a 981 at Hatteras and cad lol

We get April-style CAD in late January now, don't ya know!! :lol:

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
4 minutes ago, nj2va said:
GFS still wants no part in any type of front end snow thump.  I’d side with the Euro/NAM thermals at this range though IMO.

Gfs is broken bro. It can't even give us snow with a 981 at Hatteras and cad lol

It only broken until we get to Thursdays bomb. ;)

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

NAM/euro blend works for me. Let’s do this.

Tony’s snowfall map during the 11pm news had the 3-6” bullseye over central to eastern Howard fwiw 

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Just now, anotherman said:


Probably because he’s favoring the DEEP THUNDER model.

Maybe, but I mentioned it because WXUSAF lives in that area, and I thought he’d like to know. 

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43 minutes ago, mappy said:

Maybe, but I mentioned it because WXUSAF lives in that area, and I thought he’d like to know. 

I'd wait for Al Roker's take before drawing conclusions

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO faked me out. Decently colder in the 10-12 hours pre storm but looks slightly warmer this run as precip is falling. 

Might just be a lack of heavy precip during the initial thump.

Tbh it's not much QPF anyway... by 60 we dryslot or precip shuts off

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WSWatch issued for NW third of the LWX CWA 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
345 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021

MDZ001-501-502-VAZ027>031-507-WVZ050-055-501>504-241645-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.210125T1800Z-210126T1500Z/
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Hardy-Western Grant-
Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-
345 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is
  expected. Ice accumulation from freezing rain around or greater
  than one-quarter of an inch is possible in addition to the
  possibility of snow and sleet accumulation.

* WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, the northern Shenandoah
  Valley, the Potomac Highlands of West Virginia, and the
  northern Virginia Blue Ridge Mountains.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the evening commute Monday as well as the morning
  commute Tuesday.

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So euro gave up on the snow idea for Monday? Looks like the nam did as well...feeling like a 32 and rain deal for my hood.
Euro gave up on the frozen precip idea in general I believe

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
13 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
So euro gave up on the snow idea for Monday? Looks like the nam did as well...feeling like a 32 and rain deal for my hood.

Euro gave up on the frozen precip idea in general I believe

That's a pretty dramatic flip in one run. Good model 

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