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Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

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You know the people at NWS at LWX are professionals. When they make a forecast so much more aggressive with snow it makes me wonder if they have access to info we don’t or if they simply have a better grasp of how to interpret that info.

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Yup.  Sign me up for all three p-types.  That Euro run looks awesome.  None of it is in my yard but seems to be trending the right way. #delusional

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

You know the people at NWS at LWX are professionals. When they make a forecast so much more aggressive with snow it makes me wonder if they have access to info we don’t or if they simply have a better grasp of how to interpret that info.

I think it makes some sense to be more aggressive out your way. The further E/NE you go with this one, the drier its going to get due to the wave damping as it runs into higher pressure. Plus its going to get there sooner and it will be colder.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You know the people at NWS at LWX are professionals. When they make a forecast so much more aggressive with snow it makes me wonder if they have access to info we don’t or if they simply have a better grasp of how to interpret that info.

2-3" snow not aggressive at all in some  of the favored areas imo . The thermals have been fairly unchanged imby for 48 hours with snow sleet favored ending as freezing drizzle, sprinkles . It's the qpf that dried up on much of guidance till HH runs juiced up a bit . 

I'm thinking fmby 

2-3" snow

.15" -.20" sleet 

.05" zrain 

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

2-3" snow not aggressive at all in some  of the favored areas imo . The thermals have been fairly unchanged imby for 48 hours with snow sleet favored ending as freezing drizzle, sprinkles . It's the qpf that dried up on much of guidance till HH runs juiced up a bit . 

I'm thinking fmby 

2-3" snow

.15" -.20" sleet 

.05" zrain 

I don’t think there’s much support in the models we look at it for 3-4” of snow in Winchester. I see it in the 12k NAM but nowhere else. The euro had it, lost it, and now seems to want to bring it back.

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6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

2-3" snow not aggressive at all in some  of the favored areas imo . The thermals have been fairly unchanged imby for 48 hours with snow sleet favored ending as freezing drizzle, sprinkles . It's the qpf that dried up on much of guidance till HH runs juiced up a bit . 

I'm thinking fmby 

2-3" snow

.15" -.20" sleet 

.05" zrain 

Hey btw, what is your location? I’m always on the phone so I can’t see that.

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31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

No one posted the 18z Euro snow map?

Allow me.B)

1611694800-ZssuWPQ62yE.png

HoCo bullseye is back! 

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Hey btw, what is your location? I’m always on the phone so I can’t see that.

Hollywood :D

 

 

 

 

 

 

Along M/D line in N.Carroll Co.

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait it's snowing outside? Lol

Sometimes you have to step away from compooter and look out the window because u might miss something :whistle:

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12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Sometimes you have to step away from compooter and look out the window because u might miss something :whistle:

Yeah but it's dark, and I didn't happen to look outside...and whatever frozen we are gonna get wasn't supposed to come until tomorrow...

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but it's dark, and I didn't happen to look outside...and whatever frozen we are gonna get wasn't supposed to come until tomorrow...

The nam showed this chance  3 days ago and and  nailed it :ph34r:

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12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but it's dark, and I didn't happen to look outside...and whatever frozen we are gonna get wasn't supposed to come until tomorrow...

Don’t worry! It showed ss on the radar over baltimore co and city but I saw nothing - and I def kept looking even went outside - how pathetic lol. Let’s see if we can atleast get a dusting tomorrow nt. Better than zilch! 

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Ah, the good ol’ pre-game NAMing. Almost like a real snowstorm!

I feel watching an hour or two of white asteroids fall tomorrow tonight while I’m Jebwalking is a big win in itself. :snowing:

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Ah, the good ol’ pre-game NAMing. Almost like a real snowstorm!

We got nothing else.  F*** it, might as well pretend we're on a snowstorm eve.   Well for the next hour.  THe RGEM, GFS and even ICON will come in with 2 sleet pellets and a flake for the cumulative total of the storm.

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Just now, snowfan said:

It’s a shame you can’t believe the NAM. Otherwise, we’d be stoked for our 2-5” of snow.

Wait, DCA isn’t getting 6+ tomorrow night?

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