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stormtracker

Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

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Just now, stormtracker said:

We got nothing else.  F*** it, might as well pretend we're on a snowstorm eve.   Well for the next hour.  THe RGEM, GFS and even ICON will come in with 2 sleet pellets and a flake for the cumulative total of the storm.

And don't forget the Euro then coming in with precip amounts that would shame a desert.

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Ah, the good ol’ pre-game NAMing. Almost like a real snowstorm!
I mean if it can't deliver in its 24 hour wheelhouse

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3k has a stripe of 1-3” running across much of the area....especially DC and north.
Why is 3k always so dry

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4 minutes ago, snowfan said:

3k has a stripe of 1-3” running across much of the area....especially DC and north.

Yeah, it doesn’t look like the 12k, but I think most of us would take it and run.

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4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Other than it's the NAM why is it wrong?

I think that's the only reason?  We've all just gotten used to being told the NAM is crap so we just run with it?   But this time, it likely is.  There is zero other model support.

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16 minutes ago, snowfan said:

It’s a shame you can’t believe the NAM. Otherwise, we’d be stoked for our 2-5” of snow.

It's looking likely that low end will easily be seen for many spots . I wouldn't dismiss it . Yea...(5" ) is pushing it probably but 2-4" seems possible in areas .

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10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Other than it's the NAM why is it wrong?

There’s a better chance of earth getting hit by a gamma ray burst tomorrow than DCA getting 6-7 inches from this system. 

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I think that's the only reason?  We've all just gotten used to being told the NAM is crap so we just run with it?   But this time, it likely is.  There is zero other model support.
We were told the nam is crap at 48-84. Not 0-24
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Just now, Scraff said:

NAM be like dry your failed Thursday tears. I got you DMV. :tomato:

It’s not like it’s completely on its own... euro has had the same idea off and on. Plus there’s the wdi...  We’re due for one to break our way

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       Just to add some actual science to justify tossing the parent NAM, rather than dismissing it by "it's the NAM".....

  - the NAM parent is on an island right now with heavy precip extending through the DC metro area.    All of the other guidance has jumped ship on higher liquid totals, including the NAM nest.

  - thermal profiles, while still snow in the NAM forecast, have zero margin for error.    It's shown nicely in the NAM nest, which also has snow for much of the area, but has more realistic QPF:

1154685124_ScreenShot2021-01-24at9_27_02PM.thumb.png.c0446052996a735dce607548e74269c7.png

        Multiple levels are pretty much right at 0C, so it wouldn't take much to turn that into sleet.    Ultimately, I do think that those of us north of the Beltway have a shot at an inch or maybe two (for some lucky folks), and that is supported by several CAMs this evening.

 

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

       Just to add some actual science to justify tossing the parent NAM, rather than dismissing it by "it's the NAM".....

  - the NAM parent is on an island right now with heavy precip extending through the DC metro area.    All of the other guidance has jumped ship on higher liquid totals, including the NAM nest.

  - thermal profiles, while still snow in the NAM forecast, have zero margin for error.    It's shown nicely in the NAM nest, which also has snow for much of the area, but has more realistic QPF:

1154685124_ScreenShot2021-01-24at9_27_02PM.thumb.png.c0446052996a735dce607548e74269c7.png

        Multiple levels are pretty much right at 0C, so it wouldn't take much to turn that into sleet.    Ultimately, I do think that those of us north of the Beltway have a shot at an inch or maybe two (for some lucky folks), and that is supported by several CAMs this evening.

 

Can I still wish it was right though?

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There was that one rare time.. maybe early 2000s, when NAM was the only model showing snow up to 11 inches in the area and we got it! We are due.. right? LOL! 

OK - no more.. this is becoming banter! 

Bruce Banter (due to the Gamma ray comment)

 

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8 minutes ago, high risk said:

       Just to add some actual science to justify tossing the parent NAM, rather than dismissing it by "it's the NAM".....

  - the NAM parent is on an island right now with heavy precip extending through the DC metro area.    All of the other guidance has jumped ship on higher liquid totals, including the NAM nest.

  - thermal profiles, while still snow in the NAM forecast, have zero margin for error.    It's shown nicely in the NAM nest, which also has snow for much of the area, but has more realistic QPF:

1154685124_ScreenShot2021-01-24at9_27_02PM.thumb.png.c0446052996a735dce607548e74269c7.png

        Multiple levels are pretty much right at 0C, so it wouldn't take much to turn that into sleet.    Ultimately, I do think that those of us north of the Beltway have a shot at an inch or maybe two (for some lucky folks), and that is supported by several CAMs this evening.

 

Why run the model if it's known to be flawed?

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