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Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting


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6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Well I mean @high risk works in NWP is sorta saying to discount it, so hard to give it weight. 

That's not really what he's doing here (though you may not have intended it to come across that way)...

 

9 minutes ago, high risk said:

Use the NAM nest, and use the snow depth or Ferrier product for an event like this.    Shows the idea of a 1-2" event from northern Loudoun across Montgomery and Howard into Baltimore which matches the HRRR nicely.

This doesn't mean "discount the NAM", it simply states don't use the ridiculous 10:1 snow maps when we're looking at not all snow in a marginal setup, but to use the other algorithms instead for this situation (and to use the  3-km NAM nest).

:ph34r:'d by @high risk himself, LOL!

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1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

That's not really what he's doing here (though you may not have intended it to come across that way)...

 

This doesn't mean "discount the NAM", it simply states don't use the ridiculous 10:1 snow maps when we're looking at not all snow in a marginal setup, but to use the other algorithms instead for this situation (and to use the  3-km NAM nest).

:ph34r:'d by @high risk himself, LOL!

Well sorry, I agree (it’s not discounting). I should have clarified he’s saying the verbatim output for 10-1 maps and face value is pretty unlikely! Sorry @high risk!

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Well sorry, I agree (it’s not discounting). I should have clarified he’s saying the verbatim output for 10-1 maps and face value is pretty unlikely! Sorry @high risk!

No worries, I kind of thought you probably didn't intend for it to come out quite that way.  Regardless, even an inch or two with some sleet is making this a lot more interesting than I thought a day ago!

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

hows it up here? have two reports going out at work this week so a bit distracted by far too many maps

Good, but frankly, I may be in the sweet spot for this. Probably 2-3” verbatim then sleet and fzra. As @high risk said, there’s probably a narrow region where the dynamics max out the WWA precip this evening and its cold enough to snow and accumulate. At the moment, it looks like that’s south of you. 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Good, but frankly, I may be in the sweet spot for this. Probably 2-3” verbatim then sleet and fzra. As @high risk said, there’s probably a narrow region where the dynamics max out the WWA precip this evening and its cold enough to snow and accumulate. At the moment, it looks like that’s south of you. 

 

Just now, high risk said:

   Your thermal profile will certainly support snow, but you'll be fighting reduced QPF that far north.    Some snow, though, seems quite likely.

Thanks guys! I'm good with anything that falls even if its not the jackpot zone. enjoy whatever you may get!

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