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stormtracker

Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Well CMC isn’t great if u like snow.  Good bit of frozen for favored northern areas.  

Is that for Monday or the Jan 28th threat?

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Just now, nj2va said:

Is that for Monday or the Jan 28th threat?

LOLOLOL Randy can't even get his dates right. 

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There were several severe ice storms (even in dc proper) around the dates on the 6-10/8-14 day analog chart.

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

He's using the Mayan calendar 

I heard it predicted a 48 inch BECS from New Orleans to Boston on Feb 5th.

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well CMC isn’t great if u like snow.  Good bit of frozen for favored northern areas.  

Pinger party. Main low farther north and stronger vs 0z.

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Just now, Cobalt said:

GEFS 850s compared to 6z during the storm. Certainly colder

 

Here's the snow mean to go with it

 

Not bad. 190% of my seasonal total last year (1.9'')

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FWIW, was chatting with Ava earlier and she said she's leaning a messy mix vs all snow for many. Didn't go into more details

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Something to watch out for on the Euro/EPS. The GEFS/GFS are insistent on making snow fly on the backend, meanwhile the Euro does the exact opposite. Wonder which caves to which. 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel-1684000.thumb.png.eec8373f46b881114ab014f8e8727baa.png

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Something to watch out for on the Euro/EPS. The GEFS/GFS are insistent on making snow fly on the backend, meanwhile the Euro does the exact opposite. Wonder which caves to which. 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel-1684000.thumb.png.eec8373f46b881114ab014f8e8727baa.png

Can you show 108 and up to 126?

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Does anyone else remember the NAM doing pretty well with the big december storm, especially in regard to the R/S gradient line? Gonna be on that NAM this weekend for this setup.

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7 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Does anyone else remember the NAM doing pretty well with the big december storm, especially in regard to the R/S gradient line? Gonna be on that NAM this weekend for this setup.

I remember the US beating the Soviets in hockey in 1980.

Thats exactly how rare the NAM being right was.

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Can you show 108 and up to 126?

Hope this is good. Captures most of the system, although I couldn't compress the GIF enough to fit the end of the storm.

114920502_ezgif.com-gif-maker(1).thumb.gif.dbab021173c5c8f485deb707f58bf0a1.gif

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Just now, Cobalt said:

Hope this is good. Captures most of the system, although I couldn't compress the GIF enough to fit the end of the storm.

114920502_ezgif.com-gif-maker(1).thumb.gif.dbab021173c5c8f485deb707f58bf0a1.gif

LOL, I think I just had a seizure. Thanks

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16 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Something to watch out for on the Euro/EPS. The GEFS/GFS are insistent on making snow fly on the backend, meanwhile the Euro does the exact opposite. Wonder which caves to which. 

 

That is an interesting development for sure...mix/ice to snow.  Not sure if that's shown up in previous model cycles before this?

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Does Richmond get scammed on this one we think? A few of those seem south enough, but a lot of those are north/rain. Of course it could slide south a bit.

Edit: I KNOW I’m a weenie, my formal education hasn’t started in this topic yet. But hey, y’gotta start somewhere.

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