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Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting


stormtracker
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53 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

12Z EPS thru Day 5  Basically, the same as 6Z, a tick North at southern edge.

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33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS mean definitely moved south with the Op. Really want that to continue. Wouldn’t take a lot to have the meat of the snow band through much of our area. Precip starts in under 100hrs...

We’re at the stage where I think the op is better given the lower resolution ensembles will struggle with the thermals and CAD. If we take anything from the EPS it’s the trend with MSLP and h5 heights not the snow mean.  So like Wxusaf said the eps supported the slight south trend in the op despite what the clown maps say. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

We’re at the stage where I think the op is better given the lower resolution ensembles will struggle with the thermals and CAD. If we take anything from the EPS it’s the trend with MSLP and h5 heights not the snow mean.  So like Wxusaf said the eps supported the slight south trend in the op despite what the clown maps say. 

Despite what everyone here does, the utility of ensembles is not for the snow maps. It’s for track and strength of features. The track shifted south from 0z to 12z. Once we get the the point of sweating thermal profiles (12z Saturday runs probably), then you’re focusing on the operational model. 

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From Mount Holly afternoon AFD- This just about covers the range of possibilities with this event lol. I still lean towards more souther/possibly somewhat suppressed wave, but what do I know?

12Z guidance (in general) did trend a little more amplified with the upper-level system thus allowing the primary-low to progress a bit further north before falling apart, which in turn slightly delays the formation of the secondary low. The envelope of sensible weather possibilities remains large, with snow rapidly changing to mix from S-N in the most amplified/northward tracking solutions (UKMET), to the mix line stalling over the area, before transitioning back to snow on the back end (ECMWF), to generally pure snow more focused over the southern half of the area (GFS). Although not explicitly shown in the 12Z deterministic suite, the possibility of the wave being suppressed and the bulk of the precip shield remaining to our south still remains on the table, and this is particularly highlighted by a camp of GEFS members.

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