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stormtracker

Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

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22 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

So euro gave up on the snow idea for Monday? Looks like the nam did as well...feeling like a 32 and rain deal for my hood.

Tried to tell people the snow aspect of this one is a bit overblown by a couple of the models...this set up screams decent ice storm for usual spots and just a glaze with 32 and rain for the cities 

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That's a pretty dramatic flip in one run. Good model 
It dried up dramatically but that situation in very different than Thursday storm

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The front end thump on the Euro has been shrinking/becoming less impressive over several runs. Its now all but completely disintegrated.

I will take my trace of sleet and some drizzle, and look forward to the mid week threat, er collapse.

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:
21 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
That's a pretty dramatic flip in one run. Good model 

It dried up dramatically but that situation in very different than Thursday storm

What's it gonna take for you to do your meltdown in the banter or panic thread or maybe make your own thread for it? You will get plenty of eyeballs on it i swear. 

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25 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

That's a pretty dramatic flip in one run. Good model 

It still has frozen. This wave was always going to weaken as it headed east into the shredder. Models were generally too amped/overdoing the waa precip, and have adjusted. Still decent for places further west(mostly ice), but the further N/NE you go, the weaker the dynamics become.

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Still looks like a snow sleet storm here ( guidance hasn't changed with the minimum zrain idea up here in 48 hours)....but qpf is the only variable changing and the wrong way :yikes:. Getting drier and drier but I think things juice up a bit in today's runs . 

Models showing 3 frozen hits in a week now with a day 7 cad setup showing now:snowing:

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Still looks like a snow sleet storm here ( guidance hasn't changed with the minimum zrain idea up here in 48 hours)....but qpf is the only variable changing and the wrong way :yikes:. Getting drier and drier but I think things juice up a bit in today's runs . 

Models showing 3 frozen hits in a week now with a day 7 cad setup showing now:snowing:

And somehow most of us will likely only manage a few pity flakes from all 3:lol:

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Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 3K NAM at 12ZB44B698D-4213-4628-BF98-DAC5BE8941A0.thumb.png.807b9a31bf1019a4028345cf338a4574.png

7E5CF694-CE6A-4627-9416-A65439FDBC07.png

764FF094-8E55-4391-B361-A2EE76DCEC73.png

It’s that last map that makes little sense to me. Freezing rain typically becomes less the higher you go. If there’s cold deep enough to be freezing at around 4000 feet then it’s probably deep enough for sleet at lower elevations.

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My forecast is for "around an inch".

My goal is to see flakes fall at a decent clip for 30 mins, and end up with a coating that looks more impressive than all the heavy frosts I have seen over the past couple weeks.

At least blocking patterns can still make frosty mornings.

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7 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Wow the GFS is really dry lol. Barely any precip thru 6z

It has been deteriorating for several runs now. The good waa precip gets shunted SE, and the remnant moisture from the parent low heads up over N PA and S NY.

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2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

All bases covered 

Dude put up or shut up. All you do is complain yet I NEVER see you make a prediction on anything past a couple days. And frankly over the years your short range predictions based on the pressure in Pittsburg aren’t any more reliable then what the NWS has going using NWP along with classical methodology.  Earlier this winter your method was completely useless and I had to explain to you that the lack of a “suppressive high” had absolutely nothing to do with why the storm was suppressed because it was the compressed flow in the Atlantic. The pressure was irrelevant.  If you can predict the long range better without technology please show us. If you can’t then these bitter “old man yelling get off my lawn” posts are way past amusing.  Oh and save us your “how dare you respond to me in a public thread” crap too. 

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