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Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

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Just now, CAPE said:

lol NAM

Although the Euro has that nice front end band over this way too.

1611640800-wbSiewsOXdo.png

watch us get more snow for this horrible event than the Thursday

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Pretty good summary here from Mount Holly-

A messy setup all around, from the synoptic structure of the storm system to the actual surface weather conditions. Low pressure tracking out of the Mississippi Valley region will become highly elongated and likely separate into a weakening parent low tracking west of us and a developing secondary wave over or just south of us. This will lead to a fairly prolonged precipitation event. The precipitation will mainly be driven by warm advection, but that lift source is going to be weakening, and consequently so will the precipitation shield. So may be a case of a long duration but mainly light intensity event. Given the weakening dynamics and lack of strong warm advection, as well as a northeast as opposed to east or southeast surface flow, am skeptical about how much plain rain will become involved outside of the southernmost zones. Currently feel frozen ptypes will be favored in most areas, though that could certainly include a good deal of sleet and freezing rain in addition to snow. Considering the relatively modest expectations for QPF, have an early suspicion of an advisory level event in most of the area, but still a lot of details yet to be determined.

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My current forecast is snow/sleet/freezing rain ending as light rain Tuesday morning.

Times are lean, so if I can get a decent coating of something frozen on the ground, I guess I am good with that.

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Just now, CAPE said:

My current forecast is snow/sleet/freezing rain ending as light rain Tuesday morning.

Times are lean, so if I can get a decent coating of something frozen on the ground, I guess I am good with that.

Truth right there

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14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

My current forecast is snow/sleet/freezing rain ending as light rain Tuesday morning.

Times are lean, so if I can get a decent coating of something frozen on the ground, I guess I am good with that.

Yup. I imagine most of us S&E of 95 who got nil in Dec would agree. I'm good with anything other than 38 degree rain.

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This event reminds me of a warmer version of December 2013 (eagles lions game). I can’t find H5 maps for it but for some reason I feel like that was a sheered out shortwave too that took advantage of temp gradient and the fronto overachieved up here in Philly.  Anyone have maps from that one curious if I’m just imagining things. 

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2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

This event reminds me of a warmer version of December 2013 (eagles lions game). I can’t find H5 maps for it but for some reason I feel like that was a sheered out shortwave too that took advantage of temp gradient and the fronto overachieved up here in Philly.  Anyone have maps from that one curious if I’m just imagining things. 

Yeah, the snow really came down pretty good for a short period of time in Baltimore and an extended period of time in Philly at an even higher rate.

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7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

This event reminds me of a warmer version of December 2013 (eagles lions game). I can’t find H5 maps for it but for some reason I feel like that was a sheered out shortwave too that took advantage of temp gradient and the fronto overachieved up here in Philly.  Anyone have maps from that one curious if I’m just imagining things. 

I was just thinking about that comparison earlier today. 

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11 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

This event reminds me of a warmer version of December 2013 (eagles lions game). I can’t find H5 maps for it but for some reason I feel like that was a sheered out shortwave too that took advantage of temp gradient and the fronto overachieved up here in Philly.  Anyone have maps from that one curious if I’m just imagining things. 

Don't have 500mb maps, but found this one in a folder on my hard drive.  Looks like a much better high for that storm.

post-98-0-90368500-1386389332.jpg.53d4174cd60376c07342d47f6fbbb876.jpg

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15 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

This event reminds me of a warmer version of December 2013 (eagles lions game). I can’t find H5 maps for it but for some reason I feel like that was a sheered out shortwave too that took advantage of temp gradient and the fronto overachieved up here in Philly.  Anyone have maps from that one curious if I’m just imagining things. 

That was one of the best boom scenarios. Was at the fire department in Carroll County for that. We got close to 8" when only 2". 

Here's the list of LWX products issued that day, courtesy of the IEM Bot:  https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?source=LWX&year=2013&month=12&day=8&year2=2021&month2=1&day2=22&view=time&order=asc

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5 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Don't have 500mb maps, but found this one in a folder on my hard drive.  Looks like a much better high for that storm.

post-98-0-90368500-1386389332.jpg.53d4174cd60376c07342d47f6fbbb876.jpg

Yea it does look like the low is sheared out though guess that’s why it came to mind. 

 

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was just thinking about that comparison earlier today. 

I remember that being a complete dc and burbs type system until like the day of. The AM models started to show that precip into Philly. Was quite the surprise here

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Trying to look over all the models from today quickly.  Quick breakdown for N.Carroll. 

Euro-- 5" snow, .35" sleet, .10" FR

Nam-- 5" All snow - still snow at 84 hour:lol:

Gfs-- 3" snow, .20" sleet,. 40" FR

Icon-- lol ---- 1/2" snow , drizzle (NO QPF:lol:)

 

Mostly a snow/  sleet storm w/ model blend 

Forgot Ukie --- 6 inches snow , ? Mix

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2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

Nobody mentioned but that first round has .5" of freezing rain through MD. .5" and above is defined as "crippling".

 

IULc4Tr.png

Doesn't really get colder than 31 or so on the run, probably wouldn't accrete that well verbatim, especially since its coming down at a good clip and hasn't been that cold leading up to the event. Could be a decent tree glazer I suppose.

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Doesn't really get colder than 31 or so on the run, probably wouldn't accrete that well verbatim, especially since its coming down at a good clip and hasn't been that cold leading up to the event. Could be a decent tree glazer I suppose.

Ah, I'm not super well versed on how freezing rain accumulates. I'm from Louisiana and have never experienced significant accums.

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

My current forecast is snow/sleet/freezing rain ending as light rain Tuesday morning.

Times are lean, so if I can get a decent coating of something frozen on the ground, I guess I am good with that.

Your best bet—just spill some 120 Min IPA on the front yard and see if it can actually freeze. :weight_lift:

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Just now, ErinInTheSky said:

Ah, I'm not super well versed on how freezing rain accumulates. I'm from Louisiana and have never experienced significant accums.

Neither am I honestly, so someone else might be better suited to chime in. Limited experience says it accretes better when it's more drizzly than a downpour, unless its pretty darn cold.

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Yes, light fzra accumulates better and the colder the better. When we had crippling ice events in ‘94, temps were in the 10s and low 20s with fzra. But cold temps this weekend will help make surfaces cold. 

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5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Your best bet—just spill some 120 Min IPA on the front yard and see if it can actually freeze. :weight_lift:

Dude, every drop of that stuff is precious.

I have one in the fridge for Sunday.

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Another tick north on 18z euro.  12z seemed to have stopped the bleeding but 18z feels like it started again. Not sure how much more we have to give at this point. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Another tick north on 18z euro.  12z seemed to have stopped the bleeding but 18z feels like it started again. Not sure how much more we have to give at this point. 

With another 72 hours for it to tick  north I'm not expecting any real snow even up here at the MD/PA border.

Probably a little sleet then some tree glaze. 

I was actually more worried about suppression a couple days ago lol.

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Just now, Chris78 said:

With another 72 hours for it to tick  north I'm not expecting any real snow even up here at the MD/PA border.

Probably a little sleet then some tree glaze. 

I was actually more worried about suppression a couple days ago lol.

Me too.  Thing is...it is getting suppressed. NYC is on the northeast fringe!  The real heavy precip stays south of PA. But even with the suppression the cold is too pathetic to hold. Here is the scary double bind that puts us in. If the thermal base state is so warm that to get cold we need more suppression then this...well look at Thursday. It’s not even that cold. It’s barely cold enough to snow really. And it’s taking such a suppressive flow to get even that, that there is a serious risk the storm gets squashed. So what’s our path to a win if the cold is so weak that to prevent warmth from surging north in front of any wave we need such a suppressive flow that nothing can amplify?

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