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40/70 Benchmark

January 2021

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14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Maybe so...but I’m certainly not writing off this winter on 1/10.  And I wouldn’t even be writing it off a month from now in the first week of Feb either.  Sometimes it takes a LIL longer for years /seasons to get rolling than others.  
 

Time will tell?   But you’re out on this season like you said, so we’ll see you next December. 

Sure.....at this point I’d gladly take a TOR up my ass in May.....lord knows the snow ain’t coming

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59 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Sure.....at this point I’d gladly take a TOR up my ass in May.....lord knows the snow ain’t coming

So listen Vanilla Ice... ( and I learned how to respond in a positive way from my rant with 40/60 Benchmark.. ;-)  lololololol ). Sure..we don't have any snow right now, but when the time comes that we do get some, and you want to be part of the convo, you'll be the first one I'm throwing salt on so you melt away! 

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3 hours ago, ice1972 said:

Sure.....at this point I’d gladly take a TOR up my ass in May.....lord knows the snow ain’t coming

Ummm it's January 10th?  I've seen great snow events pop out of nowhere even in crap patterns.. This could all change the next set of models runs.. So before you go all TOTO on us keep checking back :)

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22 hours ago, BrianW said:

Dandelions have been popping up here on the shoreline all winter. 

Yup, same here

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Just now, kdxken said:

Looks like a nice stretch!

Yep, I’m enjoying it. Not a single below normal day this month and now 21 days in a row above normal going back to December 20.

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7 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Scott, Ray, I think that area of strong vorticity, within the shortwave trough that arrives over the GRT Lakes between 72-84 hours, depending upon which model you use and which timing is ultimately correct in the end, has a chance to dig more and become a miller B.  The question becomes if the trough can tilt negatively at all before reaching the coastline of NJ than it may have a shot at producing snow on the coast.  Don't know!  However, the 00z guidance is coming around on the overall synoptic scale pattern like a giant H5 low and trough moving into the Great Lakes and central US.  This longwave trough is perpetuated by a long wave +PNA ridge that develops in the inter PNA/EPO regions.

You have a better shot of the following happening. 

Aaron Nesmith winning the MVP award for the 20/21 season.

Your book winning a Pulitzer prize.

Being named Time Magazine Person of the Year for 2021.

Nathan Eovaldi winning the Cy Young Award in 2021.

All of the forum members being invited to a party at the Playboy mansion.

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Many are struggling.

It will snow again someday but regression has inflicted pain on so many. Icey1929, 40/90 and some others just need a few man hugs to get them through it. 

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20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No. Last year had epic warm anomalies...you may not like it, but its noteworthy weather. This?

Nothing. I wanted winter, not a recap of Tip's romantic endeavors post Christine, or James' book sales.

Exactly, which is why this season is even more meh so far than last year's ultra-meh .  However, the 12/25 rain of 2.54" is the greatest I've measured in 23 Decembers here and the 29° AN that day is the greatest positive departure for any day, 1° more than 3/22/2012.

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19 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I did see people ice fishing and playing pond hockey in Rutland and Spencer.     That’s ballsy

A friend took a nice salmon thru the ice on Parker Pond (Fayette/Mt. Vernon, 10-15 miles SSW from my place.)  Probably on some cove ice near his brother's home that somehow survived the Christmas deluge.  Long Pond in Belgrade is about 2/3 open.  Yesterday's low of 9° is the coldest since 12/20 (my last BN day) but still 3-4° AN. 

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30 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I did see people ice fishing and playing pond hockey in Rutland and Spencer.     That’s ballsy

Wow.  Maybe after last night smaller ponds might be OK but seems risky.  I won’t go out unless there is at least 3” of black ice.

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This month is a great example of why you simply cannot base or make forecasts off of medium to long range models. They generally are never correct. Until you get under 2-3 days to say “ The last 15 days of the month looks great , with cold and storm chances”.. you really can’t do that and have much chance of being right. It’s more pattern recognition and persistence forecasting until something physically breaks that persistence. I’m more convinced now than ever. 

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We skate and play hockey on our section of an 85 acre, fairly shallow beaver pond.

Last evening I drilled holes to flood a section.  We have 4 inches of ice.  And then we hit 8F overnight so at least smaller ponds are in good shape now.

 

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1 minute ago, cny rider said:

We skate and play hockey on our section of an 85 acre, fairly shallow beaver pond.

Last evening I drilled holes to flood a section.  We have 4 inches of ice.  And then we hit 8F overnight so at least smaller ponds are in good shape now.

 

The only 4 inches of ice to be found in SNE is in drinks....

Image result for drinks filled with ice memes

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This month is a great example of why you simply cannot base or make forecasts off of medium to long range models. They generally are never correct. Until you get under 2-3 days to say “ The last 15 days of the month looks great , with cold and storm chances”.. you really can’t do that and have much chance of being right. It’s more pattern recognition and persistence forecasting until something physically breaks that persistence. I’m more convinced now than ever. 

Nothing has changed too much. Just some bad luck and distinct disturbances you cannot forecast that may or may not occur. That’s how it goes sometimes. Persistence is the worst way to forecast. 

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2 pages of ice1927 vomiting down the front of his frampton t-shirt is all you need to know about the next 10 days.

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47 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I did see people ice fishing and playing pond hockey in Rutland and Spencer.     That’s ballsy

Yeah I was gonna do my first examination of elevated, shallow ponds today.  We're getting close.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nothing has changed too much. Just some bad luck and distinct disturbances you cannot forecast that may or may not occur. That’s how it goes sometimes. Persistence is the worst way to forecast. 

Just going to have to disagree. Weather has little to do with luck . It’s science and science isn’t luck 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Also, how is this snowless through end of January? Are we getting a little dramatic here? :lol: 

Well first it was middle of last week, then it was it would snow this weekend.. then the 13th.. then it was next weekend.. then it was the following Monday. That takes us to the 25th with zilch . Persistence says that should likely continue doesn’t it?

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Also, how is this snowless through end of January? Are we getting a little dramatic here? :lol: 

Reverse psychology. 

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