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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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What are we pushing back to ten days?  The pattern change is still around on the models for next week Friday/Saturday no matter the type of storm that hits.  Cutters are notorious for pattern changing systems.  There is a strong amplifying northern stream disturbance over the Midwest around 84 hours that needs to be watched.  Seems to be our next weather maker.

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24 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

What are we pushing back to ten days?  The pattern change is still around on the models for next week Friday/Saturday no matter the type of storm that hits.  Cutters are notorious for pattern changing systems.  There is a strong amplifying northern stream disturbance over the Midwest around 84 hours that needs to be watched.  Seems to be our next weather maker.

Exactly

It has always been mid month. What a bunch of naughty weenies on here.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All that is saying is the GEFS are more favorable than the EPS, which is actually not what you want. 

No.. It's not saying that. It is showing both models and what they are forecasting ( not that one is more favorable than the other, that is a toss up until we know which one is correct ). 

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15 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

No.. It's not saying that. It is showing both models and what they are forecasting ( not that one is more favorable than the other, that is a toss up until we know which one is correct ). 

Can you read? The tweet indicates that the GEFS is more favorable. It says GEFS have more ridging over AK, a more classic NAO and is thus colder over N America. It's clear that the GEFS is more favorable, regardless of what actually verifies.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is an interesting look next weekend. Much better than before. 

Scott, earlier this am, I think "Walt  "suggested  maybe something to watch Monday (week from this coming one), what you are seeing for next weekend, same thing just earlier? or possibly two different events?

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23 minutes ago, 512high said:

Scott, earlier this am, I think "Walt  "suggested  maybe something to watch Monday (week from this coming one), what you are seeing for next weekend, same thing just earlier? or possibly two different events?

I think anything is more next weekend and beyond. Quiet week.

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There is a miller B potential around the 13/14th period which is Wednesday or Thursday next week.  An amplifying northern stream shortwave trough moves through the Great Lakes Tuesday/Wednesday and then off the Mid Atlantic coast around DE on Wednesday/Thursday,.  Models handle the system differently.  We will have a definite answer in 60 hours as the energy comes onshore the West Coast.

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